Old Greg is my bitch's bitch
Contractor Among Contractors
Some people struggle with this very basic concept, unfortunately.
Lots of airlines from outside the EU fly into the EU, but they do so by way of a bilateral aviation treaty either between the EU and the third country (e.g. USA), or between individual member states and the third country. (there is no EU to India aviation agreement, but there is a UK to India agreement).
If we leave the EU and drop out of the ECAA (by not accepting EASA as regulatory body, and jurisdiction of ECJ over aviation matters) then there will no longer be a right for:
a) UK airlines to fly from UK to EU
b) UK airlines to fly between two EU countries, e.g. France to Germany
c) UK airlines to fly a domestic sector within another EU country, e.g. within France.
d) EU airlines to fly to the UK
e) UK airlines to fly to third countries covered by ECAA, e.g. Morocco, USA, Jordan... 44 countries I think
f) UK airlines to fly from an EU country to the USA (e.g. 'Openskies' from Paris to New York).
a and b will probably be the most simple to overcome, that would hurt EU airlines a little. I imagine there will be an Open Skies treaty between the UK and the EU. But you know what - that's a 'deal'. If May and co walk off in a huff and we don't get a deal, then on Brexit day 1, there will be a lot of grounded planes.
We'll never get b,c or f without being in ECAA, and we'd need to negotiate new deals for e for UK to USA flights to resume. You'd think that would be trivial, but as recently as 10 years ago the UK was unable to liberalise the UK to USA market. It took the EU to liberalise that. The one thing you can bank on the USA is a UK-US air agreement which benefits US airlines a hell of a lot more than UK airlines.
easyJet are having to open an Austrian subsidiary company to keep flying EU flights after Brexit, and that has meant jobs, profits and taxes now go to Austria, and not to the UK.
And this is the rub. Brexiters who "don't care about the greedy bankers and greedy corporates" forget that said greedy bankers and corporates in the UK pay tax. But they wont be doing after Brexit, because they won't be able to.
I absolutely hope we're not heading towards Ultra hard Brexit, but it is pure fantasy to think it will be business as usual once we're out of the customs union and the single market.
Yes, it will hurt both. The UK more than EU. So hopefully there will be some kind of deal.
If there is no deal, this is exactly what will happen. That's why there will be efforts to have some kind of deal.
Edit: see Chopper's analysis if you don't understand.
Down with racism. Long live miscegenation!