The Irish Problem

**WTFH** · 29 June 2018, 13:08

Originally posted by Cirrus View Post

The Irish Problem is now one of the biggest Brexit headaches. What are you thoughts?

Nobody has explained the problem except "It will destroy the Good Friday Agreement and paramilitaries will be killing each other left, right and centre".

My suspicion is currently there is a huge amount of illegal activity ie organised crime that crosses the border. Any new monitoring will shine an inevitable light on it and lots of key players will have their lifestyles threatened.

Do we risk screwing the rest of the Brexit debate just to accommodate a bunch of criminals?

You've been listening to JRM haven't you?

The problem:
Since the end of The Troubles there has been an attempt at peace in Ireland. A big part of that attempt at peace is appeasing both sides. To the Unionist, NI is part of the UK. To the Republican, there is free movement around Ireland with no border posts, British Army, etc. It is a step towards a united Ireland.

Putting up border posts and checkpoints is a return to the bad old days when Irish people, businesses and goods, were stopped and checked as they crossed over a line.

That might be over simplifying it, but I suspect Zig and others would basically agree.

**WTFH** · 29 June 2018, 13:09

Here's another thread from a few days ago. You can ignore the latter part of it where it descends from debate into garbage

https://forums.contractoruk.com/brex...upporters.html

**jamesbrown** · 29 June 2018, 13:09

If it weren't for the DUP, we'd have agreed to East-West checks, along the lines the EU want, despite what TM says about "no PM would ever accept it". It makes far more sense to introduce E-W checks than N-S checks, both conceptually and mechanically. This would solve the border issue in NI and allow rUK to take a different approach outside the SM and CU. Customs accounts for only a small fraction of the checks needed at a third-country border, so no amount of customs fudging will help. It's either SM+CU for NI (TM: "no PM would ever do this"), SM+CU for the UK overall (TM: "we are leaving the SM+CU") or both parties accept a hardened border in NI. The EU are going to keep pushing for SM+CU for the UK overall with a backstop of NI in the SM+CU plus a Canada-style FTA for rUK.

I see an election quite soon, either following complete capitulation by TM or a no-deal outcome.

Crash and burn was always quite likely, as there are too many obstacles to agreeing any "third way". A Swiss-style deal was never likely, even if the UK wanted one.

**Eirikur** · 29 June 2018, 13:09

I wouldn't describe it as the Irish problem, but as the English and Welsh problem as they voted to leave the EU and by doing so created problems that were not there before.

**DimPrawn** · 29 June 2018, 17:09

It's not really a problem if we spend the Brexit dividend carpet bombing Ireland. Good for our weapons industry too.

**Mordac** · 29 June 2018, 17:37

Originally posted by Eirikur View Post

I wouldn't describe it as the Irish problem, but as the English and Welsh problem as they voted to leave the EU and by doing so created problems that were not there before.

The EU created the mechanism whereby individual nations could vote on whether to remain or leave (the treaty with the Article 50 bit in it). Presumably they were hoping their brainwashing/threats etc. would make a 'Leave' vote an impossibility, but in this case they got it wrong. They either have to accept some responsibility for facilitating the smooth departure of a member nation, or we might just have to accept that the EU is just like the Hotel California: You can check out any time you like, but you can never leave...
Some other nations might start to wonder if they actually want to stay in such an organisation.

**GreenMirror** · 29 June 2018, 19:34

The troubles are already resurrected https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...nd-prosecution

Several here argued Martin McGuiness should be tried for terrorist offences. Unless a line is drawn then there will be violence evermore.

The EU is about to reignite the troubles then blame the UK as they blame the UK for everything else.

Ireland and the UK will suffer.

**motoukenin** · 29 June 2018, 19:46

Originally posted by Cirrus View Post

The Irish Problem is now one of the biggest Brexit headaches. What are you thoughts?

Nobody has explained the problem except "It will destroy the Good Friday Agreement and paramilitaries will be killing each other left, right and centre".

My suspicion is currently there is a huge amount of illegal activity ie organised crime that crosses the border. Any new monitoring will shine an inevitable light on it and lots of key players will have their lifestyles threatened.

Do we risk screwing the rest of the Brexit debate just to accommodate a bunch of criminals?

This is one small area where the UK does hold some of the cards.

If there is a hard border then the UK will be better off just letting the EU via Ireland put that up, there would be nothing to gain from the UK proposing a hard border.

As for crime thats a police matter and its in both UK and EU interest to prevent that.

As part of the whole 'what will the UK gain from Brexit' argument then the most likely outcome will be just more expense in keeping the peace in that part of the UK.

**Mordac** · 29 June 2018, 19:55

Originally posted by GreenMirror View Post

The troubles are already resurrected https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/...nd-prosecution

Several here argued Martin McGuiness should be tried for terrorist offences. Unless a line is drawn then there will be violence evermore.

The EU is about to reignite the troubles then blame the UK as they blame the UK for everything else.

Ireland and the UK will suffer.

There is a slight technical issue preventing such a prosecution, in that he's no longer sufficiently alive enough to stand trial...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martin_McGuinness

The Irish Problem