No deal off the table now?

[stonehenge]

Several ministers have already stated publicly that they will resign if we're heading for no deal.

It is pretty obvious that No 10's strategy is to run the clock down in the hope that MPs from other parties will vote for the WA rather than crashing out. I'm sure No 10 know full well that there's little chance of getting meaningful movement from the EU side.

Even if May can get the WA through, it's doubtful whether the DUP confidence and supply agreement will survive.

[TheCyclingProgrammer]

Removing the one bargaining chip we have left does seem somewhat suicidal.

FFS, "no deal" is not a bargaining chip in any way shape or form and it's about time this analogy died the death it deserves. For it to be a bargaining chip implies that you are prepared to do it. There's no sign that the government (other than a few extremists and the ERG and the like) wants to willingly exit without a deal and the Commons has certainly made it's opinion very clear.

I realise it's the default position but calling a bargaining chip is akin to threatening to blow your own legs off if you don't get your own way. The EU doesn't want no deal either but it will affect the UK more than it will affect them.

It also carries the assumption that there's still time or will on the EU's part to take part in further negotiations. I don't think they could have made it any clearer than they have today (if it wasn't already blatantly obvious) that there are no more negotiations to be had unless there's an indication of a complete shift in the government's "red lines" and negotiating position.

There is no renegotiation, there are no bargaining chips.

[Paddy]

Still convinced we're going to be leaving without a deal. Still not seen anything to suggest otherwise. There are only two realistic escape routes:

1) May comes back in two weeks having failed to renegotiate anything and puts the existing withdrawal agreement to a vote and realising it's the only way to guarantee no deal, the House reluctantly backs it.

or

2) May revokes A50 at the last minute when all options have been exhausted.

Both of the above seem incredibly unlikely and I'm not even sure the second one is possible because as well as revoking A50 I would have thought that the existing the EU legislation would need to be repealed or superseded and I'm not certain what the process for that would be.

There's also the option of asking to extend the date, even just to give some time to figure out what will happen next but it's a gamble as it's not guaranteed.

That only leaves one option from where I'm sitting.

There is not enough time to pass legislation to invoke a "no deal" Brexit unless a single emergency act for martial powers is passed; something some Tories will love

[Old Greg]

There is not enough time to pass legislation to invoke a "no deal" Brexit unless a single emergency act for martial powers is passed; something some Tories will love

Legislation is needed to manage the fallout of No Brexit, not to invoke it. That's what makes it so entertaining.

[TheCyclingProgrammer]

There is not enough time to pass legislation to invoke a "no deal" Brexit unless a single emergency act for martial powers is passed; something some Tories will love

Unfortunately no legislation is needed for us to leave without a deal. In the absence of a) a deal b) revoking A50 or c) the EU agreeing to a request to extend the leave date, we will leave at 11pm on 29 March without a deal, as per the legislation linked to on the first page of this thread.

[shaunbhoy]

Unfortunately no legislation is needed for us to leave without a deal. In the absence of a) a deal b) revoking A50 or c) the EU agreeing to a request to extend the leave date, we will leave at 11pm on 29 March without a deal, as per the legislation linked to on the first page of this thread.

Spot on. It is astonishing that at this stage of the Pantomime so many people are unaware of this.

What is REALLY needed is a Meeting!!

[Paddy]

Unfortunately no legislation is needed for us to leave without a deal. In the absence of a) a deal b) revoking A50 or c) the EU agreeing to a request to extend the leave date, we will leave at 11pm on 29 March without a deal, as per the legislation linked to on the first page of this thread.

Legislation is required for the import and export of goods. Movement of people and the financial industry. There is none in place at the moment. It will involve about 300 pieces of legislation that has not even been drafted yet.

[TheCyclingProgrammer]

Legislation is required for the import and export of goods. Movement of people and the financial industry. There is none in place at the moment. It will involve about 300 pieces of legislation that has not even been drafted yet.

Nevertheless, this does not change the fact that we leave on 29 March unless there is an extension or we withdraw A50.

[Old Greg]

Legislation is required for the import and export of goods. Movement of people and the financial industry. There is none in place at the moment. It will involve about 300 pieces of legislation that has not even been drafted yet.

None of which is relevant to invoking a new deal.

[Yorkie62]

FFS, "no deal" is not a bargaining chip in any way shape or form and it's about time this analogy died the death it deserves. For it to be a bargaining chip implies that you are prepared to do it. There's no sign that the government (other than a few extremists and the ERG and the like) wants to willingly exit without a deal and the Commons has certainly made it's opinion very clear.

I realise it's the default position but calling a bargaining chip is akin to threatening to blow your own legs off if you don't get your own way. The EU doesn't want no deal either but it will affect the UK more than it will affect them.

It also carries the assumption that there's still time or will on the EU's part to take part in further negotiations. I don't think they could have made it any clearer than they have today (if it wasn't already blatantly obvious) that there are no more negotiations to be had unless there's an indication of a complete shift in the government's "red lines" and negotiating position.

There is no renegotiation, there are no bargaining chips.

Parliament is actually pretty much split on No Deal, just as the general public are with a small majority rejecting it. To say that there are only a few extremists supporting No deal is wrong when there were only 8 MPs in favour or rejecting NO Deal. I saw a poll recently that suggested the general public feel the same in that there is a small majority who do not support the No Deal Scenario, however there was a majority that thought that the No Deal scenario was now the most likely outcome.