No deal off the table now?

[Yorkie62]

And if Paddy power were so cocksure that we will be extending A50 they would be offering great odds for A50 not being extended. I'll shop around thanks.

But you've been telling us for weeks you're cocksure that we're leaving on 29th March. Paddy Power are offering good odds for yo given you already know we're leaving and A50 won't be extended. Free money for you, surely?

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[Old Greg]

And if Paddy power were so cocksure that we will be extending A50 they would be offering great odds for A50 not being extended. I'll shop around thanks.

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They're not cocksure. Nobody is saying that A50 is definitely going to be extended. But you seem cocksure that A50 won't be extended. As NAT says, it's free money.

[TheCyclingProgrammer]

Parliament is actually pretty much split on No Deal, just as the general public are with a small majority rejecting it. To say that there are only a few extremists supporting No deal is wrong when there were only 8 MPs in favour or rejecting NO Deal. I saw a poll recently that suggested the general public feel the same in that there is a small majority who do not support the No Deal Scenario, however there was a majority that thought that the No Deal scenario was now the most likely outcome.

There was a small majority for the Spelman amendment but I am confident that is because a significant number of Tory MPs felt they had to give the PM one last try before they show their hand.

When she comes back in two weeks with the same deal and we go through the whole neutral motion process again I expect we will see a much bigger majority for an amendment aimed at preventing no deal and probably one with more teeth than the Spelman amendment.

[stonehenge]

There was a small majority for the Spelman amendment but I am confident that is because a significant number of Tory MPs felt they had to give the PM one last try before they show their hand.

When she comes back in two weeks with the same deal and we go through the whole neutral motion process again I expect we will see a much bigger majority for an amendment aimed at preventing no deal and probably one with more teeth than the Spelman amendment.

WHS

Besides the ERG, and possibly DUP, there are very few MPs who would support "no deal".

[Cirrus]

Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: Well Humphrey, we've got to leave the EU. I think that means we are in now but we will have to be outside.
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: So now we have borders with non-EU countries but not EU countries.
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: So what will happen is we'll now have borders with the EU because we have decided to be a non-EU country?
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: Well that seems straightfoward, Humphrey.
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: Well Humphrey, is there anything I should know?
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: What?
Sir Humphrey Original: Well Minister, the Good Friday Agreement says we can't have borders between us and Ireland.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: So, we only have two choices: 1) we stay in the EU or 2) Ireland comes out with us?
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: I guess we can totally forget Ireland moving?
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: So that only leaves us with Option 1?
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.
Rt Hon Sean McPosterBoy: Oh that's easy then: we'll just tell the EU we are staying in after all. Only obviously we are leaving at the same time.
Sir Humphrey Original: Yes Minister.

[Whorty]

And if Paddy power were so cocksure that we will be extending A50 they would be offering great odds for A50 not being extended. I'll shop around thanks.

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Paddys are a bookmakers, you do understand how bookmakers work don't you? They look at an event where the outcome is not guaranteed, then they offer odds of the various outcomes based on the modeled likelihood of each outcome. The more likely they think something is to happen, the worse odds they offer to the customer (it's how they make money, you see).

Now given you know we're going to drop off a cliff edge and A50 won't be extended or rescinded, why not put your money where your mouth is? A couple of grand would prove us all how clever you are and give you load of kudos on CUK that you know what you're talking about.

[Yorkie62]

Paddys are a bookmakers, you do understand how bookmakers work don't you? They look at an event where the outcome is not guaranteed, then they offer odds of the various outcomes based on the modeled likelihood of each outcome. The more likely they think something is to happen, the worse odds they offer to the customer (it's how they make money, you see).

Now given you know we're going to drop off a cliff edge and A50 won't be extended or rescinded, why not put your money where your mouth is? A couple of grand would prove us all how clever you are and give you load of kudos on CUK that you know what you're talking about.

So long as you all each match my £5k by betting the other way.

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[Old Greg]

So long as you all match my £5k by betting the other way.

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You're the only person who thinks an outcome is guaranteed. Why would you care what anyone else does if there is free money?

[darmstadt]

[AtW]

So long as you all each match my £5k by betting the other way.