GBP - How low will it go?

[JohntheBike]

UK Decimalisation: Feb 1971. Inflation leading up to that:
2.5%
4.7%
5.4%
6.4%

Oh look, it was going up every year.

1971: 9.4%
1972: 7.1%
1973: 9.2%

Now, while you're off trying to recalculate how to blame the EU, can you provide a link to oil prices in the 1970s. Most unbiased sources say that the chief cause of inflation in the 1970s was the rise in oil prices

I'm not blaming the EU for the high inflation rate. However, it cannot be discounted that there was an HMG plan to massage the inflation rate upwards in order to align our wages and prices with EU figures. Yes, the oil crisis exacerbated the figures, but as you quite rightly point out, inflation was already rising.

But I believe this was being engineered by HMG, in the same way as they are engineering the very low rate at the moment. I'm not an economist, but clearly there is a multitude of factors which affect inflation figures, not the least what HMG determine should be included in the prices indices. If they can manipulate those, then they can manipulate inflation. Which is what I believe they were doing in the run up to EU membership.

I lived and worked through those times remember.

[CryingSheep]

as I've repeatedly said, I believe rightly or wrongly, and please refer to my speed camera analogy, that the inflation caused by decimalisation was part and parcel of the plan to bring our wages and prices in line with those in the EU, in order to overcome any veto to our membership which De Gaulle, or like minded Eurocrats, persisted in. Yes, the oil crisis exacerbated the actual figure, but everyone was subject to that.

Do you think that countries like Romenia, Bulgaria or even Poland will also be forced to get their wages and prices 'in line' with the EU!?

One thing is a country to decide to get in line with EU wages and prices, another (very different) is being forced by the EU to do it!

[WTFH]

[WTFH]

I'm not blaming the EU for the high inflation rate. However, it cannot be discounted that there was an HMG plan to massage the inflation rate upwards in order to align our wages and prices with EU figures. Yes, the oil crisis exacerbated the figures, but as you quite rightly point out, inflation was already rising.

But I believe this was being engineered by HMG, in the same way as they are engineering the very low rate at the moment. I'm not an economist, but clearly there is a multitude of factors which affect inflation figures, not the least what HMG determine should be included in the prices indices. If they can manipulate those, then they can manipulate inflation. Which is what I believe they were doing in the run up to EU membership.

I lived and worked through those times remember.

You're not an economist, but you imagine that HMG were manipulating inflation for several years before the referendum to manipulate the results - but you don't know why they would want to do that.
Then you also think that oil prices going up by >200% in one year "exacerbated" inflation.

You're right, you're not an economist, but you're happy to jump to wild conclusions of your own that meet your current opinion but bear little resemblance to reality for the rest of the world

[BlasterBates]

I'm not blaming the EU for the high inflation rate. However, it cannot be discounted that there was an HMG plan to massage the inflation rate upwards in order to align our wages and prices with EU figures. Yes, the oil crisis exacerbated the figures, but as you quite rightly point out, inflation was already rising.

The pound devalued at the same time with respect to the DM. Inflation didn't make the UK "wealthier".

[Eirikur]

1 GBP = € 1.08228 = $1.21207

Still going down

[BrilloPad]

1 GBP = € 1.08228 = $1.21207

Still going down

Is the same true for your wife?

Actually, I know she is for me.

[JohntheBike]

Do you think that countries like Romenia, Bulgaria or even Poland will also be forced to get their wages and prices 'in line' with the EU!?

One thing is a country to decide to get in line with EU wages and prices, another (very different) is being forced by the EU to do it!

I never said that the UK was forced to get our wages and prices in line with those in the EU. What I believe is that given De Gaulle's veto in earlier years, the UK politicians believed that by bringing our wages and prices inline with the EU, they could more easily avoid future vetos by De Gaulle minded politicians.

[JohntheBike]

You're not an economist, but you imagine that HMG were manipulating inflation for several years before the referendum to manipulate the results - but you don't know why they would want to do that.
Then you also think that oil prices going up by >200% in one year "exacerbated" inflation.

You're right, you're not an economist, but you're happy to jump to wild conclusions of your own that meet your current opinion but bear little resemblance to reality for the rest of the world

" but you don't know why they would want to do that"

I've already said why I believe they would want to do that. So to repeat, whilst De Gaulle was alive, he vetoed UK's membership of the EU. I believe he did this because of the discrepancy between UK and EU wages and prices. If we had been allowed to join with those discrepancies, the French would have flocked to the UK to buy our goods cheaper than their own.

And although I'm not an economist, I know that the whole gambit of UK/EU issues cannot be encapsulated within one or other of opinions.

What I've said is that the perceptions of the populace will hold sway. The perception of the UK populace in 2016 was that the UK would be better off outside of the EU. The referendum decided this and it's no use arguing the toss about who lied in the campaign. The UK voted to leave and if Boris doesn't achieve this, then he is likely to be the shortest PM in history and we are likely to see a Marxist government, which will push the UK into much more debt.

[JohntheBike]

There are no EU rules to bring prices and wages into line, not even now. De Gaulle wasn't alive.

I didn't say there were. Look at my other posts.