BREXIT: Parliament can't stop "no deal" - Matt Hancock

[AtW]

It's obviously going to results in Election - and Boris will win it as long as he gets Brexit "done" on 1st Nov.

[darmstadt]

But he has said there won't be an election or is he another lying Tory tulip like May

Sent from my Boris

[AtW]

Well, obviously he is a liar

[Platypus]

But he has said there won't be an election or is he another lying Tory tulip like May

Sent from my Boris

Lying? If he loses a confidence vote, there will have to be an election.

[Old Greg]

Lying? If he loses a confidence vote, there will have to be an election.

Unless a new government can be formed.

[Platypus]

Unless a new government can be formed.

Quite so.

If Parliament holds off on the confidence vote until after the legal case in Scotland, and until after the NI power sharing motion on Sep.9th, then if these two fail, then by the time you have a VONC, then either Parliament unites behind Corbyn or Boris calls an election and Parliament is suspended for the campaign. Since the house voted overwhelmingly for A50 and for the exit date 31/10 I think it would be hard to argue that Brexit is something that a subsequent government might seek to reverse, but it could happen.

Whatever happens, I think that Boris would win a GE either because Brexit is delivered or because it was thwarted and he'll promise to delivered it.

But, as they say, (almost) anything could happen. It's fun watching the show though.

[AtW]

MPs can change their minds

[Old Greg]

Quite so.

If Parliament holds off on the confidence vote until after the legal case in Scotland, and until after the NI power sharing motion on Sep.9th, then if these two fail, then by the time you have a VONC, then either Parliament unites behind Corbyn or Boris calls an election and Parliament is suspended for the campaign. Since the house voted overwhelmingly for A50 and for the exit date 31/10 I think it would be hard to argue that Brexit is something that a subsequent government might seek to reverse, but it could happen.

Whatever happens, I think that Boris would win a GE either because Brexit is delivered or because it was thwarted and he'll promise to delivered it.

But, as they say, (almost) anything could happen. It's fun watching the show though.

Parliament could unite behind someone other than Corbyn. It is fun to watch though.

[jamesbrown]

Parliament could unite behind someone other than Corbyn. It is fun to watch though.

Could, but spectacularly unlikely without Corbyn's approval. He has a rump of MPs. Perhaps 100 or more (w/ 36 or so in shadow cabinet or attending). Seems highly unlikely that he'd cave on this point.

Of course, that is the second part of a VONC, and the VONC may itself still pass. The Lib Dumbs would support a VONC, for example, but not Corbyn.

The legislative route remains the mostly likely route. September 9 looks like the main event.

[Old Greg]

Could, but spectacularly unlikely without Corbyn's approval. He has a rump of MPs. Perhaps 100 or more (w/ 36 or so in shadow cabinet or attending). Seems highly unlikely that he'd cave on this point.

Of course, that is the second part of a VONC, and the VONC may itself still pass. The Lib Dumbs would support a VONC, for example, but not Corbyn.

The legislative route remains the mostly likely route. September 9 looks like the main event.

Passing the WA would at this point be the most entertaining outcome.