Does anyone believe a general election could happen soon after Brexit?

[Old Greg]

That's hardly a "bet" now is it? Of course there will be a GE well before the end of the year: Boris will want / need a majority in the house to create the new environment in which the UK will thrive outside the EU.

It is indeed a bet and you can get 6/5 on a 2019 election.

British Politics Year Of Next General Election Betting Odds | Politics | Oddschecker

[scooterscot]

Imagine going to the polls Thursday 7th November(not that elections have to be held on a Thursday). There is bound to be severe disruption. Who would vote Tory then?

Conservative politics in the UK will die this year. No if not buts.

[CryingSheep]

That's hardly a "bet" now is it? Of course there will be a GE well before the end of the year: Boris will want / need a majority in the house to create the new environment in which the UK will thrive outside the EU.

That would be less smart than when May asked for a GE (and that was really, really reallyyyy stupid)! Right now he as a majority, very very slim and probably not manageable but still he has it. At this point in a general election Tories would struggle to be the most voted party, leave it alone getting anything close to a majority!!!

[TestMangler]

That would be less smart than when May asked for a GE (and that was really, really reallyyyy stupid)! Right now he as a majority, very very slim and probably not manageable but still he has it. At this point in a general election Tories would struggle to be the most voted party, leave it alone getting anything close to a majority!!!

No he doesn't.

[CryingSheep]

No he doesn't.

At least in the paper he does...

[TestMangler]

At least in the paper he does...

He is leading a minority government with a C&S arrangement with another party.

[CryingSheep]

He is leading a minority government with a C&S arrangement with another party.

That's how a parliament works... if he has more than half of the votes (and in the paper he has), he has a majority.

[TestMangler]

That's how a parliament works... if he has more than half of the votes (and in the paper he has), he has a majority.

Yawn.......

[BR14]

That's how a parliament works... if he has more than half of the votes (and in the paper he has), he has a majority.

are you a JtB sockie?

[jamesbrown]

31 October is one potential election date. Too late to stop Brexit, too early for the disruption to set in.

There is some sense to that, but I think they'd prefer to have the election after we've definitively left or it has been definitively blocked. There are no immediate effects on 1 November beyond the markets (which is why Gove has mooted a Bank Holiday ), even in the worst case scenarios.

1 November is the assumed date in Whitehall for the scenario where a VONC succeeds and no other group can demonstrate confidence and where Boris remains caretaker PM (a few ifs/buts there, but they are all somewhat more likely now that the opposition parties are fighting like rats in a sack over who heads the gov't of national disunity, i.e., it won't happen).