Boris's cunning plan.

[Old Greg]

Points 2 and 3 are correct. 4 and 5 are garbage. 6, maybe

1. Boris (or rather Cummings) miscalculated how many Tories would rebel. Having a minority in the house led to all his defeats and the fact that he's now boxed in.
4,5. Not going to happen, but in the medium to long run, the UK has effectively ended. NI is difficult, but Scotland will no doubt eventually want join the EU and will do so.
6. I reckon a hung parliament is a strong possibility. Boris is losing support by the day with floating voters.

In terms of the next GE, the Tories have not won a working majority since '87 or '92 depending in how you define 'working'. One of the biggest shifts in voting behaviours since 1945 has been the decline in the combined Tory and Labour vote. Recently, the smaller parties' vote has become more focussed geographically (e.g. Scotland), chipping away at the FPTP advantage of the big two parties. It is increasingly hard for a party to win a majority. The Tories may have an opportunity to do a deal with TBP Ltd, to give them a free run in Labour held Leave voting constituencies, but this is at the price of the Tories becoming clearly a hard Brexit party, so they run the risk of losing seats in Scotland and London. Given this dilemma and Corbyn's uselessness as a leader, it's hard to see a GE outcome that does not broadly reflect the current HoC make up.

[CryingSheep]

In terms of the next GE, the Tories have not won a working majority since '87 or '92 depending in how you define 'working'. One of the biggest shifts in voting behaviours since 1945 has been the decline in the combined Tory and Labour vote. Recently, the smaller parties' vote has become more focussed geographically (e.g. Scotland), chipping away at the FPTP advantage of the big two parties. It is increasingly hard for a party to win a majority. The Tories may have an opportunity to do a deal with TBP Ltd, to give them a free run in Labour held Leave voting constituencies, but this is at the price of the Tories becoming clearly a hard Brexit party, so they run the risk of losing seats in Scotland and London. Given this dilemma and Corbyn's uselessness as a leader, it's hard to see a GE outcome that does not broadly reflect the current HoC make up.

I believe it would be a surprise a GE at this point not ending in an even more divided HoC.

[Eirikur]

I believe it would be a surprise a GE at this point not ending in an even more divided HoC.

As it stands a coalition will need to be formed. Tories are toxic, so is Corbyn, chaos will just continue

[Hobosapien]

What about the unity of the UK!? That seems to be missing in all that theory...

Plus, who would vote for that deal!? Even DUP wouldn't...

DUP? Who? Boris has thrown them under the bus.

GB is more important than UK in historical terms. Let the Irish decide their own fate. If NI have a referendum post 'NI backstop' to remain with the UK then they too leave the EU and accept a hard border with RoI (or hope the magic technology of an invisible border is ready by then), otherwise they stay in the EU and move towards a re-unified Ireland.

The modified WA will pass government voting when EU refuse an extension in October, so it's either modified WA or no deal. We already know the majority of parliament are tulip scared of no deal so their hand is forced. Boris just needs to get the deal tweaked sufficiently to save face and sweeten it away from the EU overlord that the original backstop allowed. Brexit will be delivered in its true meaning and not BRINO.

[BrilloPad]

it's hard to see a GE outcome that does not broadly reflect the current HoC make up.

I have heard it said LibDem will gain a few seats. At the expense of Labour. So it will still be a knife edge.

[Hobosapien]

Points 2 and 3 are correct. 4 and 5 are garbage. 6, maybe

1. Boris (or rather Cummings) miscalculated how many Tories would rebel. Having a minority in the house led to all his defeats and the fact that he's now boxed in.
4,5. Not going to happen, but in the medium to long run, the UK has effectively ended. NI is difficult, but Scotland will no doubt eventually want join the EU and will do so.
6. I reckon a hung parliament is a strong possibility. Boris is losing support by the day with floating voters.

5. Scotland will stay with GB (and the UK while it exists until NI decide in a referendum on UK over unified Ireland) if the break from the EU is clean so trade deals with the USA (whisky sales are a massive export for the jocks) and others can start being negotiated this year.

6. Boris will win big on voter confidence if he delivers brexit in October. Only the remoaners will want to back Corbyn if he follows through with a second referendum 'promise'. Most voters just want brexit resolved so planning for the future is easier and government concentrates on other important domestic issues. There is no appetite to drag brexit into next year and beyond except by those wanting it to be cancelled.

[Hobosapien]

I have heard it said LibDem will gain a few seats. At the expense of Labour. So it will still be a knife edge.

I think that's why Corbyn is now supporting a second referendum.

He knows the Lib Dems are lining themselves up to being the 'remain' party in the GE so he needs to combat that while also not distancing himself from the brexit supporters, so will end up promising everything to everyone and the tories and lib dems clean up along the leave/remain lines, along with the brexit party if nothing but an extension happens in October.

[TestMangler]

5. Scotland will stay with GB (and the UK while it exists until NI decide in a referendum on UK over unified Ireland) if the break from the EU is clean so trade deals with the USA (whisky sales are a massive export for the jocks) and others can start being negotiated this year.

6. Boris will win big on voter confidence if he delivers brexit in October. Only the remoaners will want to back Corbyn if he follows through with a second referendum 'promise'. Most voters just want brexit resolved so planning for the future is easier and government concentrates on other important domestic issues. There is no appetite to drag brexit into next year and beyond except by those wanting it to be cancelled.

Given that Scotland can already export whisky to 70% of the world via current EU trade deals, what do you consider to be the that advantage of leaving that for trade deals that don't exist and won't for at least a couple of years ?

[CryingSheep]

5. Scotland will stay with GB (and the UK while it exists until NI decide in a referendum on UK over unified Ireland) if the break from the EU is clean so trade deals with the USA (whisky sales are a massive export for the jocks) and others can start being negotiated this year.

6. Boris will win big on voter confidence if he delivers brexit in October. Only the remoaners will want to back Corbyn if he follows through with a second referendum 'promise'. Most voters just want brexit resolved so planning for the future is easier and government concentrates on other important domestic issues. There is no appetite to drag brexit into next year and beyond except by those wanting it to be cancelled.

I agree in part with you, that's why I believe is not very likely we leave (with or without a deal) in October. I can't see a majority to support any kind of (very little) variation of the current deal.

[Zigenare]

Given that Scotland can already export whisky to 70% of the world via current EU trade deals, what do you consider to be the that advantage of leaving that for trade deals that don't exist and won't for at least a couple of years ?

The Whisky will age nicely?