The "why" The "why"
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Thread: The "why"

  1. #1

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    Default The "why"

    Quote Originally Posted by original PM View Post
    ...what I have yet to hear from any remainer is why Brexit is so bad and why the EU is so good.
    It's definitely not that black and white. I'm sure we'll be ok if we leave.

    I just think there will be a cost.

    (1) 50% of our worldwide trade is with the EU. Any friction is likely to have a negative economic impact.

    (2) The EU, as a big block, has considerable clout negotiating trade deals with other countries. At a tenth of the size, the UK on its own may not be able to strike as favourable deals.

    (3) From a personal perspective, I like the ability to move freely in Europe without fetter. At some stage, I had planned to retire to Spain. This may not be as seamless after we've left (healthcare etc).

    (4) Over the next 5, 10 years I believe our economy will have grown less than if we'd stayed in.

    I'm not an EU believer; I'm just pragmatic. I wish it had just stayed as an economic market/community. I think the single currency is flawed.

  2. #2

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    Quote Originally Posted by DealorNoDeal View Post
    I'm not an EU believer. I wish it had just stayed as an economic market/community. I think the single currency is flawed.
    I think most of us can agree on these statements - though I expected the EURO to fall apart in 2012 and am impressed it has got this far.

    But there seems to be ever growing European integration. Suppose the UK had not voted to leave in 2016. By the time of the next vote(2056?) getting out would be worse.

    In 2056, the UK might vote to rejoin.

    However, referendums are are worst way of settling things. And several countries only have referendums just to confirm what their parliaments voted for.

  3. #3

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    Because as part of united Europe, we have some chance of remaining relevant on the global scene. Both in terms of policy as well as trade.

    As part of the EU we already have FTA with the majority of the top 20 world economies. Most of these took years to negotiate from a position of relative power.

    Brexit call for scrapping these and starting over. Even if by some miracle we manage to quickly (if at all) re-negotiate the existing FTAs (we won't) what would be the benefit of FTA with smaller economies? Because there isn't much benefit of FTAs with the remaining large economies, even if you think you can get favourable terms from a position of relative weakness:

    USA - Potential FTA will guarantee to bring lower food standards as a start and devastation to UK farming because of cheap import from the US. Almost definitely will require US fingers in the NHS pie. Even if by magic we get a favourable FTA (we won't) the next Trump can scrap it on a whim with zero recourse, look what happened with NAFTA

    China - The cheapest of cheap imports will spell doom for large portion of the local manufacturing. Even if it leads to cheaper consumer prices, a lot of people won't be able to afford them anyway on account of being made redundant recently...

    India - They have already made their position known - that any trade deal will be dependant on easier move of labour from India to the UK. What could go wrong...

    Do you realise that customs tariffs are there to protect local businesses from cheap imports? And if you think lower import prices will lead to lower prices on the shelves - you have another thing coming. It will only increase the bulk traders profit margins. Which is exactly why some wealthy individuals are so set on Brexit.

    P.S. I don't know why I even bother to spell it out, anyone thick enough to not realise how Brexit is a net loss to the country is beyond convincing, after years of evidence how it's bad and zero evidence how it might be good.

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by sal View Post
    P.S. I don't know why I even bother to spell it out, anyone thick enough to not realise how Brexit is a net loss to the country is beyond convincing, after years of evidence how it's bad and zero evidence how it might be good.
    Here's the problem though. If we leave, we'll almost certainly be ok; it's very unlikely to be noticeably negative. In a few years time, you could argue that we'd have done even better staying in but how could you prove it? Try convincing anyone of that.

    And, besides, I suspect the world economy is in for a major downturn in the not too distant future. Any effect of Brexit will be obscured by a much bigger problem.

  5. #5

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    https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2691419

    I get fed up of so called experts spoting off when in reality they don't have a clue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DealorNoDeal View Post
    Here's the problem though. If we leave, we'll almost certainly be ok; it's very unlikely to be noticeably negative. In a few years time, you could argue that we'd have done even better staying in but how could you prove it? Try convincing anyone of that.

    And, besides, I suspect the world economy is in for a major downturn in the not too distant future. Any effect of Brexit will be obscured by a much bigger problem.
    Substitute the UK with YourCo, EU with ClientCo and said major economic downturn with IR35 reform

    As a director of your company, in the current market, would you quit a 2 years contract guaranteed outside IR35, with views for extensions for the next several years, just because you didn't like your seat in the office?

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    Quote Originally Posted by sal View Post
    Substitute the UK with YourCo, EU with ClientCo and said major economic downturn with IR35 reform

    As a director of your company, in the current market, would you quit a 2 years contract guaranteed outside IR35, with views for extensions for the next several years, just because you didn't like your seat in the office?
    Well I imagine once you are past 2 years and can claim zero expenses the appeal is somewhat less.

    There was a major 'downturn' in 2009 - when the banks collapsed and yet no one had to sell their children as far as I am aware.

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    Quote Originally Posted by original PM View Post
    Well I imagine once you are past 2 years and can claim zero expenses the appeal is somewhat less.

    There was a major 'downturn' in 2009 - when the banks collapsed and yet no one had to sell their children as far as I am aware.
    Nah, it only caused doubling of the Government debt, followed by austerity, causing lack of policing and investment in healthcare resulting in spike of violent crimes and preventable hospital deaths and one of the worse Cancer survival rates in the developed world etc. Wage stagnation vs. steady inflation, leaving everyone poorer in real terms. Lack of infrastructure investments, leaving us with one of the worst roads in the western world. And a host of other issues.

    But no, no one that we are aware of had to sell their children to survive, is that what would be considered the break point where Brexit will be declared a bad move?

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    Quote Originally Posted by sal View Post
    Substitute the UK with YourCo, EU with ClientCo and said major economic downturn with IR35 reform

    As a director of your company, in the current market, would you quit a 2 years contract guaranteed outside IR35, with views for extensions for the next several years, just because you didn't like your seat in the office?
    If ClientCo were dictating all the contract terms, and had a timeline for Myco to go permie with no appeal process, and they wanted full financial control of MyCo, then hell yes. What you are describing, in EU terms, is not a contract. It is a takeover.
    His heart is in the right place - shame we can't say the same about his brain...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mordac View Post
    If ClientCo were dictating all the contract terms, and had a timeline for Myco to go permie with no appeal process, and they wanted full financial control of MyCo, then hell yes. What you are describing, in EU terms, is not a contract. It is a takeover.
    A stupid analogy. You are a one-man company and you can walk to another contract; one of thousands.

    Leaving the EU, there is no alternative EU and by leaving it effects millions of other people's lives.
    Brexiteers remind me of religious fanatics, only faith, no facts.

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