Will the EU offer extension beyond 31st October?

[DealorNoDeal]

The UK has always been a pain. But pays handsomely. The EU will not want to lose that money. Even if Germany would happily fill the gap.

True.

Maybe this is stupid wishful thinking but, if we did stay in, maybe this whole saga might be a wakeup call to the EU to reform. Yes, I know, and pigs will fly.

[meridian]

The UK has always been a pain. But pays handsomely. The EU will not want to lose that money. Even if Germany would happily fill the gap.

True.

Maybe this is stupid wishful thinking but, if we did stay in, maybe this whole saga might be a wakeup call to the EU to reform. Yes, I know, and pigs will fly.

Has it always been a pain? Granted, there are one or two MEPs in the EP that have always been a pain, but generally the U.K. has been a constructive member. The Single Market probably wouldn’t exist in its current form without the U.K., and the U.K. has always been a useful foil in certain areas of policy (eg pushing back against the largesse of the CAP).

Where Opt Outs have been agreed it’s usually been through hard-won diplomacy and negotiation (compared to the foot-stomping of the current crop in Government).

As for reform, the EU is constantly reforming. It’s not the same institution it was even 5 or 10 years ago. The wider question whenever someone says it “needs to reform”, though, is “reform to what”? Brexiters would no doubt make the argument that, given the direction of travel, it needs to stop reforming and stay as it was 30 years ago.... ;-)

[NotAllThere]

Although I have to question, would the EU want to risk us revoking A50 and staying in?

According to my German colleagues, they'd be quite happy for us to revoke A50. However, all British representatives would be forced to wear a dunces cap at EU meetings for a period of five years.

[sal]

The EU would probably grant a further extension for a referendum.

Although I have to question, would the EU want to risk us revoking A50 and staying in? If I was them, I'd now view Brexit like an opportunity to get rid of a bad lodger. We are nothing but a pain in the arse.

Pain in the arse or not, we are still a net contributor. An although the £9bn is small potato in the grand scheme of things, there is more to it than money. Cooperation in crime prevention, science etc. are all important factors too.

Besides when/if we finally leave it will create a dangerous precedent. If Brexit turns out to be the grand success story that so many believe, this will make other countries rethink their membership of the EU. Sure the process has been painful so far, but we are the trailblazers, everyone else looking to get out will have much better idea of how to handle the process.

[CryingSheep]

Has it always been a pain? Granted, there are one or two MEPs in the EP that have always been a pain, but generally the U.K. has been a constructive member. The Single Market probably wouldn’t exist in its current form without the U.K., and the U.K. has always been a useful foil in certain areas of policy (eg pushing back against the largesse of the CAP).

Where Opt Outs have been agreed it’s usually been through hard-won diplomacy and negotiation (compared to the foot-stomping of the current crop in Government).

As for reform, the EU is constantly reforming. It’s not the same institution it was even 5 or 10 years ago. The wider question whenever someone says it “needs to reform”, though, is “reform to what”? Brexiters would no doubt make the argument that, given the direction of travel, it needs to stop reforming and stay as it was 30 years ago.... ;-)

That's an easy one... reform to fit whatever UK believes it's better for the UK!

[CryingSheep]

Pain in the arse or not, we are still a net contributor. An although the £9bn is small potato in the grand scheme of things, there is more to it than money. Cooperation in crime prevention, science etc. are all important factors too.

Besides when/if we finally leave it will create a dangerous precedent. If Brexit turns out to be the grand success story that so many believe, this will make other countries rethink their membership of the EU. Sure the process has been painful so far, but we are the trailblazers, everyone else looking to get out will have much better idea of how to handle the process.

Exactly, what is a 9bn net contribution for the EU!? Peanuts...

You're right, much more important are all the other factors you mention, but who "profits" more from that cooperation? 27 countries from 1 or 1 from 27?

[DealorNoDeal]

Besides when/if we finally leave it will create a dangerous precedent. If Brexit turns out to be the grand success story that so many believe, this will make other countries rethink their membership of the EU. Sure the process has been painful so far, but we are the trailblazers, everyone else looking to get out will have much better idea of how to handle the process.

Mainly because of NI. Other countries don't have this issue and could leave much more easily (albeit some would have to leave the Euro too).

If we do leave, the EU could do with things going a bit crappy for us for a prolonged period.

[zerosum]

Isn't the question basically:

'Would EU leaders (including hardliners like Orban) veto extending article 50 and shaft their own citizens in the UK'?

It seems unlikely.

Also see

Jakub Krupa on Twitter: "Polish Europe Minister Konrad Szymański rejects @DKShrewsbury's letter asking for a Polish veto on Brexit extension, telling me categorically that 'no deal Brexit is not in the Polish interest and we will have no part in this'… https://t.co/n6U389SZlF"

[BrilloPad]

Isn't the question basically:

'Would EU leaders (including hardliners like Orban) veto extending article 50 and shaft their own citizens in the UK'?

It seems unlikely.

No. The question is what is best for the greater good(said in a hot fuzz voice).

[Zigenare]

Exactly, what is a 9bn net contribution for the EU!? Peanuts...

You're right, much more important are all the other factors you mention, but who "profits" more from that cooperation? 27 countries from 1 or 1 from 27?

It's 9bn that the EU is going to have to find elsewhere. France and Germany will have it covered, don't worry.