Originally posted by Old Greg
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Rob Ford, the politics professor and co-author of a seminal book on the Ukip vote, thinks that if the Brexit party does stand candidates all over Britain, the Conservatives will lose out more than Labour.
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
People seem to be forgetting there are a lot less Labour Leave votes in Labour Leave seats now than in 2016 because a lot of them switched to Cons in 2017. So BXP candidates in Lab Leave seats will usually take more votes from Cons (mostly Leave) than Lab (mostly Remain)
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12:14 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
Farage, in short, is making the John Mann error of thinking most Lab votes in Lab Leave seats are Leave voters. They aren’t. By encouraging voters who went from ukip to Con in 2017 to switch back to Bxp in 2019 he’s helping Lab MPs defend such seats
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12:14 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
Once again the date of Brexit May hinge on politicians’ inability to understand the ecological fallacy
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12:16 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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If you want to know more about the “ecological fallacy”, there is an explanation here.
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
Appreciate this May be hard to follow so will break it down:
1. Most Lab votes in Leave seats Farage is targeting voted Remain in 2016
2.The voters who will find BXP most attractive in such seats likely to be those who voted UKIP in 2015
3. Most of those voters backed Con in 2017
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12:21 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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Rob Ford
@robfordmancs
Replying to @robfordmancs
4. Therefore, BXP will typically (tho not always) hurt Con more than Lab in such seats. Just as (and indeed because) UKIP’s collapse in 2017 benefitted Con more than Lab in such sets
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12:21 PM - Nov 1, 2019
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