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Is voting BP likely to make Brexit more of less likely?

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    Is voting BP likely to make Brexit more of less likely?

    As I see it, BP's best hope are Labour-Leave constituencies. On the face of it that's good for Leavers. However I wonder if BP MPs would be more likely to vote against Boris' deal, wanting No-Deal, than Labour MPs in strongly Leave seats are to reject the whip and vote for the deal.

    Assuming a Tory government of course.

    If you want Brexit then it seems to me pragmatically Boris' deal is better than risking no Brexit, even if you prefer no deal.

    Anyone?
    Originally posted by MaryPoppins
    I'd still not breastfeed a nazi
    Originally posted by vetran
    Urine is quite nourishing

    #2
    It appears some Brexiters would prefer remain to Boris' deal, and some remainers would prefer "no deal" to Boris' deal.

    It's all a bit
    Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by d000hg View Post
      As I see it, BP's best hope are Labour-Leave constituencies. On the face of it that's good for Leavers. However I wonder if BP MPs would be more likely to vote against Boris' deal, wanting No-Deal, than Labour MPs in strongly Leave seats are to reject the whip and vote for the deal.

      Assuming a Tory government of course.

      If you want Brexit then it seems to me pragmatically Boris' deal is better than risking no Brexit, even if you prefer no deal.

      Anyone?
      Labour voters, in the majority, voted to remain and NOT leave. So, by targeting Labour areas that voted leave, the BP vote will be mostly grabbing Tory voters. This will not help leave, but it will give Labour an even better chance of holding on to their seat.

      Of course, the reverse of this is LibDems will take some of the Labour vote as remain voters may switch. But, speaking to Labour supporters I know, they will never support the LDs as they will never forgive them for going into government with the Tories.

      BPX may win the odd seat, but most likely they will end up with nothing. They will weaken the Tories and threaten leaving the EU at all.

      My prediction ... which let's face it is not worth the paper it's written on, is Tory win the most seats but no other parties will back them to form a government. The smaller parties, like SNP, LDs, will provide Corbyn support to form a minority government on a vote by vote basis. This will result in Labour being kept under control, and they will be forced to run a second ref of deal vs remain

      Or the BXP will get a landslide majority .. who knows!
      I am what I drink, and I'm a bitter man

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by Whorty View Post
        Labour voters, in the majority, voted to remain and NOT leave. So, by targeting Labour areas that voted leave, the BP vote will be mostly grabbing Tory voters
        But we can't look at in the majority only at individual constituencies with FPTP. There are a some of very pro-leave seats which are died in the wool red. In the north east for instance there are several seats where Tory are normally a distant 3rd after LD, where UKIP had a very strong presence.

        I only know 'cos that's where I live, maybe it's only a handful but I'm sure on the NW you've got places like Rochester as well. Maybe even some Welsh seats, not really sure?
        Originally posted by MaryPoppins
        I'd still not breastfeed a nazi
        Originally posted by vetran
        Urine is quite nourishing

        Comment


          #5
          Don't expect the brexit simpletons to think too much, they do not have the mental ability to think tactically.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by d000hg View Post
            But we can't look at in the majority only at individual constituencies with FPTP. There are a some of very pro-leave seats which are died in the wool red. In the north east for instance there are several seats where Tory are normally a distant 3rd after LD, where UKIP had a very strong presence.

            I only know 'cos that's where I live, maybe it's only a handful but I'm sure on the NW you've got places like Rochester as well. Maybe even some Welsh seats, not really sure?
            Welsh seats
            Most Welsh seats are Labour of course and although the BP ousted the Labour MEP's in the EU elections, a GE is a whole different ball game. I would say that most Welsh Labour seats will remain Labour even though their constituents voted to leave in the referendum. Several sitting Welsh Labour MP's had majorities greater than all the opposing votes put together. It will be difficult to overturn such voter loyalty.

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by Eirikur View Post
              Don't expect the brexit simpletons to think too much, they do not have the mental ability to think tactically.
              It's the majority of forward thinking, smart Leavers I was considering.

              Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using Tapatalk
              Originally posted by MaryPoppins
              I'd still not breastfeed a nazi
              Originally posted by vetran
              Urine is quite nourishing

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by d000hg View Post
                It's the majority of forward thinking, smart Leavers I was considering.

                Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using Tapatalk
                Good one.
                You've mistakenly posted on the wrong thread though, you clearly meant to post here:

                https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...s-here-77.html
                Hard Brexit now!
                #prayfornodeal

                Comment


                  #9
                  Johnson's Surrender Deal isn't real Brexit. Accept no imitations.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by Old Greg View Post
                    Johnson's Surrender Deal isn't real Brexit. Accept no imitations.
                    Of course it is. Do you swallow everything Farage gives you?

                    Sent from my ONEPLUS A6003 using Tapatalk
                    Originally posted by MaryPoppins
                    I'd still not breastfeed a nazi
                    Originally posted by vetran
                    Urine is quite nourishing

                    Comment

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