Anyone here understand statistics? Anyone here understand statistics?
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  1. #1

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    Default Anyone here understand statistics?

    BBC News - Do doctors understand test results?

    Are doctors confused by statistics? A new book by one prominent statistician says they are - and that this makes it hard for patients to make informed decisions about treatment.



    Where is sasguru when you need someone to pretend to understand. Then call everyone a cretin.

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    don't say his name three times!
    "If you didn't do anything that wasn't good for you it would be a very dull life. What are you gonna do? Everything that is pleasant in life is dangerous."

    I want to see the hand of history on his collar.

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    That's a matter of probability. But there's only a 10% chance of that.
    “We've always defined ourselves by the ability to overcome the impossible. And we count these moments. These moments when we dare to aim higher, to break barriers, to reach for the stars, to make the unknown known. We count these moments as our proudest achievements. But we lost all that. Or perhaps we've just forgotten that we are still pioneers. And we've barely begun. And that our greatest accomplishments cannot be behind us, because our destiny lies above us.”

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    Quote Originally Posted by vetran View Post
    don't say his name three times!
    Have to watch that movie now.
    “We've always defined ourselves by the ability to overcome the impossible. And we count these moments. These moments when we dare to aim higher, to break barriers, to reach for the stars, to make the unknown known. We count these moments as our proudest achievements. But we lost all that. Or perhaps we've just forgotten that we are still pioneers. And we've barely begun. And that our greatest accomplishments cannot be behind us, because our destiny lies above us.”

  5. #5

    I live on CUK

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrilloPad View Post
    BBC News - Do doctors understand test results?

    Are doctors confused by statistics? A new book by one prominent statistician says they are - and that this makes it hard for patients to make informed decisions about treatment.
    Not all patients.

    Some are like Sas................
    "You’re just a bad memory who doesn’t know when to go away" JR

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    Quote Originally Posted by SueEllen View Post

    Some are like Sas................
    twice - stop now!!!
    "If you didn't do anything that wasn't good for you it would be a very dull life. What are you gonna do? Everything that is pleasant in life is dangerous."

    I want to see the hand of history on his collar.

  7. #7

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    That article makes it seem the tests are crap, but it's half a story:

    In the example The Positive predictive value= approx 10% or 1 in 10

    However the Negative predictive value for the example is near 100%


    In summary you can have low confidence that a positive result is true BUT high confidence a negative is true. Get tested negative you can be almost certain it's correct. Get tested positive, you may have the disease but most probably not, certainly worth further medical investigation to confirm.
    Last edited by ZARDOZ; 7th July 2014 at 12:25.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZARDOZ View Post
    That article makes it seem the tests are crap, but it's half a story:

    In the example The Positive predictive value= approx 10% or 1 in 10

    However the Negative predictive value for the example is near 100%


    In summary you can have low confidence that a positive result is true BUT high confidence a negative is true. Get tested negative you can be almost certain it's correct. Get tested positive, you may have the disease but most probably not, certainly worth further medical investigation to confirm.
    Should just use AVG Free and hope for false positives then and cut out the middleman.

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