Greek Election

[BlasterBates]

Greek stocks going up....

Whatever's happening looks good

[VectraMan]

"Greece has no choice but to leave the Euro now, and the Eurozone will probably collapse within 12 months anyway" - all the CUK experts a few years ago.

The greater question here is what does it really mean for any government to make a commitment when they can be voted out and the next government can choose to ignore it?

[vetran]

"Greece has no choice but to leave the Euro now, and the Eurozone will probably collapse within 12 months anyway" - all the CUK experts a few years ago.

The greater question here is what does it really mean for any government to make a commitment when they can be voted out and the next government can choose to ignore it?

the thing about running a club is that you have to keep the members happy or they leave.

If you only have a few prospective members you need to listen to and act on their concerns.

[d000hg]

I expect they'll fall just short of a majority. Forming a coalition will be tough. In any case, 70% of the population favour staying in the Euro, so Tsipras doesn't have the mandate for leading them out (and the recent rhetoric from Syriza reflects that).

Can they be expelled if they reject the austerity measures and refuse to pay their debts?

[jamesbrown]

Can they be expelled if they reject the austerity measures and refuse to pay their debts?

There's no mechanism for leaving the Euro. The Greeks overwhelmingly want to stay in the EZ. The rest of the EZ overwhelmingly wants Greece to stay (if only to avoid the question being asked). However, both sides have a strong hand, and it's possible that Tsipras or others will begin a chain of events that gathers a momentum of its own. Your guess is as good as mine about how this will pan out, but I'd be surprised (not shocked) if they leave, given that both sides have the same base case.

[BlasterBates]

My prediction:

They'll restructure the debt i.e. allow more time to pay.
They'll increase the minimum wage from 800 EUR a month to 804 EUR a month
They'll reduce the new unpopular property tax by 0.1%.
They'll introduce a new wealth tax of 0.1%
They'll employ 100 new tax inspectors to crack down on the wealthy

They'll delay a privatisation for a while and have heated arguments about it, add a few strings and go ahead anyway.

...and then the new prime minister will go round Greece giving fiery speeches about the socialist new order, and everyone will cheer and throw their caps in the air.

[jamesbrown]

My prediction:

They'll restructure the debt i.e. allow more time to pay.
They'll increase the minimum wage from 800 EUR a month to 804 EUR a month
They'll reduce the new unpopular property tax by 0.1%.
They'll introduce a new wealth tax of 0.1%
They'll employ 100 new tax inspectors to crack down on the wealthy

They'll delay a privatisation for a while and have heated arguments about it, add a few strings and go ahead anyway.

...and then the new prime minister will go round Greece giving fiery speeches about the socialist new order, and everyone will cheer and throw their caps in the air.

Yes, I think that's a pretty good assessment.

[DodgyAgent]

My prediction:

They'll restructure the debt i.e. allow more time to pay.
They'll increase the minimum wage from 800 EUR a month to 804 EUR a month
They'll reduce the new unpopular property tax by 0.1%.
They'll introduce a new wealth tax of 0.1%
They'll employ 100 new tax inspectors to crack down on the wealthy

They'll delay a privatisation for a while and have heated arguments about it, add a few strings and go ahead anyway.

...and then the new prime minister will go round Greece giving fiery speeches about the socialist new order, and everyone will cheer and throw their caps in the air.

You should be a full time political commentator

[xoggoth]

We are always too optimistic. I rather think the end is nigh. If they write off Greek debt or keep subsidising them when there is no Greek effort to enforce proper measures to rectify their own past laxity then anti -EU sentiment will grow further. It isn't just a UK thing.

Pity desirable objectives are always wrecked by the idealists/egotists who have to rush things through rather than work towards them in a measured way. You didn't have to be an economic expert to see that a common currency without adequate scrutiny, firm controls and convergence of economies would never work.

[darmstadt]

They're ****ed, leftie liberals now in power albeit sharing with right wingers (which shows there is no real difference.) I've been reading about how they want to do this and that but there is absolutely nothing of substance to say how they're going to do it...

From their website:

SYRIZA denounces the dominant extreme neoliberal and euro-atlantic policies and believes that they must and can be transformed radically in the direction of a democratic, social, peaceful, ecological and feminist Europe, open to a socialist and democratic future. This is why SYRIZA is in favour of cooperation and coordinated action of left forces and social movements on a pan-European scale.

I know the Greek national costume is a kilt, but this is taking it to extremes