Tories taking the lead

[Unix]

Or is it another blip in the polls


Conservatives take six-point lead in Guardian/ICM poll | Politics | The Guardian

[DimPrawn]

So the party of money printing, no border controls, EU love-in are beating the party of money printing, no border controls, EU love-in?

Great news!

[xoggoth]

Made a similar post meself re poll oscillations last week but then it was only 4% lead. As a chemical engineer who used to deal with industrial control systems I am starting to get the feeling that this is like a poorly tuned control system that is oscillating increasingly wildly. Give it a few weeks and polls will be swinging from +100% to -100%. We will get either a commons that is entirely Tory or entirely Labour.

[DodgyAgent]

Made a similar post meself re poll oscillations last week but then it was only 4% lead. As a chemical engineer who used to deal with industrial control systems I am starting to get the feeling that this is like a poorly tuned control system that is oscillating increasingly wildly. Give it a few weeks and polls will be swinging from +100% to -100%. We will get either a commons that is entirely Tory or entirely Labour.

Bring on the toffs!

[d000hg]

Made a similar post meself re poll oscillations last week but then it was only 4% lead. As a chemical engineer who used to deal with industrial control systems I am starting to get the feeling that this is like a poorly tuned control system that is oscillating increasingly wildly. Give it a few weeks and polls will be swinging from +100% to -100%. We will get either a commons that is entirely Tory or entirely Labour.

I'm sure Euler can explain exactly how much variance we can expect between polls without it actually meaning anything.

[Euler]

I'm sure Euler can explain exactly how much variance we can expect between polls without it actually meaning anything.

It's not a trivial task to create a poll-aggregation model like Nate Silver who predicted Obama's win - would probably take months.
Interetsing project i agree ...

[Unix]

It's not a trivial task to create a poll-aggregation model like Nate Silver who predicted Obama's win - would probably take months.
Interetsing project i agree ...

Sasguru could do it in a day

[Euler]

The closest thing i found to a poll aggregator is this, although details of data sources are sparse.

More or less concludes what most people think i.e. Tories will win more seats but not by enough to form a clear majority:

ElectionForecast.co.uk

[eek]

Icm got both the euro and 2010 elections right compared to other firms.

Supposedly they are better at correctly weighting those people who are likely to vote against those who claim they will vote and then don't

[jamesbrown]

Almost certainly an errant poll. Remember that sampling variability may be represented in terms of a certain expectation w/r to a level of confidence, but an individual poll can fall outside this expectation and still not represent an actual shift. IIRC there was a poll showing a 6 point lead for Labour a few days ago.