BoE defies expectations to hold bank rate at 0.5%

[Flashman]

The rate cut will come when the stats show the economy tanking, which it will.
Move on, nothing to see here.

Oh give it up.. Delete your account and start a new one. Lets all move on and no one will ever mention you were wrong.

[tomtomagain]

Makes me laugh. Rate cut was highly anticipated by "The Market".

Once again the market failed to get it's prediction right, failed to call Brexit right, failed to spot the financial collapse in 2008 until too late.

But "The market" is always portrayed as some all-seeing being by the media.

Except that "The market hates uncertainty" ( to use that tired cliche ). So basically the market can only predict things in an environment when nothing is actually happening.

[Forgotmylogin]

I'm sure someone was repeatedly mocked for saying "Don't trust the experts".

It seems the "experts" have been getting it wrong for a while now - whether on polling, the market, the interest rate, the economy, etc.

Remind me why we should trust them when they tell us with certainty how things will be next year, let alone next week. You'd be better off listening to the Cretin Who Watches - at least you know he's wrong in advance.

[tomtomagain]

It seems the "experts" have been getting it wrong for a while now - whether on polling, the market, the interest rate, the economy, etc.

The thing about "experts" is that tend to suffer from group-think. They basically all have the same qualifications, move in the same circles, listen to the same arguments and analyse the same information.

And they often stick to the same "party-line" because to put forward a different opinion from your peers is difficult to do.

This happens whether they are IT experts, medical experts, economic or political experts.

I heard an interesting interview with a pollster after they failed to predict the general election results. He essentially said:

"We had taken polls that predicted the correct result, but we disregarded them because they were so out of line with everyone else's predictions."

In short. They didn't trust their own data.

[Hobosapien]

Gutted. That 0.25% rate cut would have saved the economy.

Just whack it up to the historic average of 5% and shake out all the shysters living the dream on cheap credit.

We're doomed anyway so the quicker they get to the recovery phase the better.

At least with our own sovereign currency we can go to digital britcoins easy enough when sterling is worthless.

[jamesbrown]

The thing about "experts" is that tend to suffer from group-think.

It's pointless to generalise about experts or the circumstances in which their advice is useful. For example, I don't think you'd condemn physics "in general" or the entire history of medical science Where experts frequently come unstuck is addressing forecasting problems that involve non-linearities and massive uncertainties, and then failing to adequately communicate those uncertainties by applying models (and interpretations) that create a spurious sense of precision. Unfortunately, many of the most challenging problems (certainly in economic forecasting) fit into that category. Economics is only loosely a science anyway Obviously, unanswerable questions are prone to political spin and vested interests.

If you've got a difficult problem, you're generally better off with an expert than a non-expert. That should be pretty much obvious to all except the swivel-eyed loons and conspiracy nuts. However, experts need to do a much better job of understanding and communicating the limits of their knowledge, which are often pretty profound.

[Martin@AS Financial]

From the BOE website:

The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. At its meeting ending on 13 July 2016, the MPC voted by a majority of 8-1 to maintain Bank Rate at 0.5%, with one member voting for a cut in Bank Rate to 0.25%. The Committee voted unanimously to maintain the stock of purchased assets financed by the issuance of central bank reserves at £375 billion. Committee members made initial assessments of the impact of the vote to leave the European Union on demand, supply and the exchange rate. In the absence of a further worsening in the trade-off between supporting growth and returning inflation to target on a sustainable basis, most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August. The precise size and nature of any stimulatory measures will be determined during the August forecast and Inflation Report round.

Financial markets have reacted sharply to the United Kingdom’s vote to leave the European Union. Since the Committee’s previous meeting, the sterling effective exchange rate has fallen by 6%, and short-term and longer-term interest rates have declined. Reflecting the fall in the level of sterling, financial market measures of inflation expectations have risen moderately at short-term horizons, but only to around historical averages, and have fallen slightly at longer horizons. Markets have functioned well, and the improved resilience of the core of the UK financial system and the flexibility of the regulatory framework have allowed the impact of the referendum result to be dampened rather than amplified.

Official data on economic activity covering the period since the referendum are not yet available. However, there are preliminary signs that the result has affected sentiment among households and companies, with sharp falls in some measures of business and consumer confidence. Early indications from surveys and from contacts of the Bank’s Agents suggest that some businesses are beginning to delay investment projects and postpone recruitment decisions. Regarding the housing market, survey data point to a significant weakening in expected activity. Taken together, these indicators suggest economic activity is likely to weaken in the near term.

Twelve-month CPI inflation was 0.3% in May and remains well below the 2% inflation target. Measures of core inflation have been stable at a little over 1%. The shortfall in headline inflation is due predominantly to unusually large drags from energy and food prices, which are expected to attenuate over the next year. In addition, the sharp fall in the exchange rate will, in the short run, put upward pressure on inflation as the prices of internationally traded commodities increase in sterling terms, and as importers pass on increases in their costs to domestic prices.

Looking further forward, the MPC made clear in its May Inflation Report, and again in the minutes of its June meeting, that a vote to leave the European Union could have material implications for the outlook for output and inflation. The Committee judges that a range of influences on demand, supply and the exchange rate could lead to a significantly lower path for growth and a higher path for inflation than in the central projections set out in the May Report. The Committee will consider over the coming period how the outlook for the economy has changed in light of the referendum result and will publish its new forecast in its forthcoming Inflation Report on 4 August.

The MPC is committed to taking whatever action is needed to support growth and to return inflation to the target over an appropriate horizon. To that end, most members of the Committee expect monetary policy to be loosened in August. The Committee discussed various easing options and combinations thereof. The exact extent of any additional stimulus measures will be based on the Committee’s updated forecast, and their composition will take account of any interactions with the financial system.

Against that backdrop, at its meeting ending on 13 July, the majority of MPC members judged it appropriate to leave the stance of monetary policy unchanged at present. Gertjan Vlieghe preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points at this meeting.

[BrilloPad]

We're doomed anyway so the quicker they get to the recovery phase the better.

Who wants to be the one to take the blame for the crash?

It was only the Falklands that saved Thatcher.

[Mordac]

Oh give it up.. Delete your life and start a new one. Lets all move on and no one will ever mention you were wrong.

FTFY

[Mordac]

The thing about "experts" is that tend to suffer from group-think. They basically all have the same qualifications, move in the same circles, listen to the same arguments and analyse the same information.

And they often stick to the same "party-line" because to put forward a different opinion from your peers is difficult to do.

This happens whether they are IT experts, medical experts, economic or political experts.

I heard an interesting interview with a pollster after they failed to predict the general election results. He essentially said:

"We had taken polls that predicted the correct result, but we disregarded them because they were so out of line with everyone else's predictions."

In short. They didn't trust their own data.

Published papers have to be "peer reviewed" and if you're saying something radically different from the consensus your peers will either laugh at you or patronise you. (We see it on here regularly).
The same goes for polls - if one pollster suddenly comes out with a different prediction, the others dismiss it as a freak. Therefore anyone who is influenced by polls becomes sheep-like, and follows the herd, not the lone individual.
A similar argument could be had about global warming, or whatever they are calling it these days. Anyone who dares to question the "accepted version of events" gets kicked out of class.

Academia has a lot to answer for.