Brexit Bill expected tomorrow.

[BlasterBates]

Excellent analysis, recommend watching this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...stic-on-brexit

Negotiations will go nowhere and the proverbial sh*t will hit the fan when inflation picks up.

[sasguru]

Excellent analysis, recommend watching this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/video...stic-on-brexit

Negotiations will go nowhere and the proverbial sh*t will hit the fan when inflation picks up.

I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic but realistic.
I don't think 18 - 24 months is anything like enough time, we simply don't have the people for it (I know this for a fact from inside sources) and unlike most people, I don't think the EU will be punitive, more likely they won't agree a deal among themselves with 27 points 0f view.
As an aside I would far more fear the US in negotiations than the EU. Far, far more, there is no comparison.
And in the end we'll have to go cap in hand, and bend over, while we get shafted by the US.

My strategy is to get as much liquidity as possible for either reinvestment of cheap assets, if I'm wrong and the economy is more benign than I expect, or flight, if we end up as a US satrapy, which seems increasingly likely.

[BlasterBates]

I'm neither optimistic nor pessimistic but realistic.
I don't think 18 - 24 months is anything like enough time, we simply don't have the people for it (I know this for a fact from inside sources) and unlike most people, I don't think the EU will be punitive, more likely they won't agree a deal among themselves with 27 points 0f view.
As an aside I would far more fear the US in negotiations than the EU. Far, far more, there is no comparison.
And in the end we'll have to go cap in hand, and bend over, while we get shafted by the US.

My strategy is to get as much liquidity as possible for either reinvestment of cheap assets, if I'm wrong and the economy is more benign than I expect, or flight, if we end up as a US satrapy, which seems increasingly likely.

I agree with what the analyst says, that basically until the German elections are over nothing is happening, and even then the EU will probably focus purely on the exit terms rather than any trade agreement In the end it's clear they'll offer a transitional deal that will be business as before as the only option.

This is going to be very interesting whether the UK has the balls to walk away. My feeling is not, and they'll be faced with the humiliation of a really sh*te transition deal.

[NigelJK]

Yeah like your kids will give a sh!t when they're on the dole queue a few years from now.

I see your crystal ball is improving it range with it's increased usage.

[sasguru]

I agree with what the analyst says, that basically until the German elections are over nothing is happening, and even then the EU will probably focus purely on the exit terms rather than any trade agreement In the end it's clear they'll offer a transitional deal that will be business as before as the only option.

This is going to be very interesting whether the UK has the balls to walk away. My feeling is not, and they'll be faced with the humiliation of a really sh*te transition deal.

The options are:

1. No change - things much the same as they are - this is politically impossible
2. Fudge Brexit - things roughly the same as they are presented differently e.g. work permit system and UK paying for access and/or similar combinations.
3. Hard Brexit - WTO rules. There is no scenario even among Leaver economists where this will enhance the UK economy.

Hoping for 2 but increasingly think 3 much more likely.

[sasguru]

I see your crystal ball is improving it range with it's increased usage.

It's a distinct possibility with WTO rules.
FDI falls if tariffs are introduced, fewer and lower paying jobs therefore.
QE and borrowing can only keep the economy afloat so long.

[OwlHoot]

The options are:

1. No change - things much the same as they are - this is politically impossible
2. Fudge Brexit - things roughly the same as they are presented differently e.g. work permit system and UK paying for access and/or similar combinations.
3. Hard Brexit - WTO rules. There is no scenario even among Leaver economists where this will enhance the UK economy.

Hoping for 2 but increasingly think 3 much more likely.

What about the options where the EU itself soon changes in some radical way?

For all we know it may practically fall apart for one reason or another, and doubtless the UK will want to rejoin some "new" free trade area, supposedly cobbled together from the wreckage, and we'll be practically back to square one.

[chopper]

Yeah like your kids will give a sh!t when they're on the dole queue a few years from now.

Youth employment today hardly paints a picture of the EU working out well for them.

(The under 24s fundamentally believe their futures lie in making vlogs and posting them on YouTube, rather than in constructive gainful employment).

[sasguru]

What about the options where the EU itself soon changes in some radical way?

For all we know it may practically fall apart for one reason or another, and doubtless the UK will want to rejoin some "new" free trade area, supposedly cobbled together from the wreckage, and we'll be practically back to square one.

Ah yes this is the one the Brexiters are hoping for.
Not going to happen, Brexit has been a salutary lesson for the others.
Here are some recent quarterly growth figures:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/...-3e34c933ee16/

And when you look at the British growth figure, keep in mind that QE was reintroduced the day after the Brexit vote and that credit card debt and other personal borrowing is at record levels

[sasguru]

Youth employment today hardly paints a picture of the EU working out well for them.

.

It was working well for us though.
If our youth unemployment rises as a consequnce of leaving the EU, I doubt those youth will take much comfort in the fact that there are others like them in the EU.