Surprise fall in retail sales in December and January

[GB9]

How? Where will it come form if spending falls?

You mean high street spending fell a touch and that's the end of growth?

Have you seen the export figures or indeed visitor figures to the UK?

[sasguru]

You mean high street spending fell a touch and that's the end of growth?

Have you seen the export figures or indeed visitor figures to the UK?

Goods are 10% of the economy, not sure if visitor figures contribute a significant amount outside London.
Consumer spending is by far the most significant factor in UK growth.
Let's see, but I'm coming to the conclusion (from my experience with the housing market in the last few months) that economists, who historically have predicted jack tulip, are wrong in their predictions of modest growth next year. I suspect a technical recession in 2018.

Remember you heard it here first.

[LondonManc]

Goods are 10% of the economy, not sure if visitor figures contribute a significant amount outside London.
Consumer spending is by far the most significant factor in UK growth.
Let's see, but I'm coming to the conclusion (from my experience with the housing market in the last few months) that economists, who historically have predicted jack tulip, are wrong in their predictions of modest growth next year. I suspect a technical recession in 2018.

Remember you heard it here first.

Are these those learned economists that you were using to suit your Brexit doom arguments?

[sasguru]

Are these those learned economists that you were using to suit your Brexit doom arguments?

I've always based my Brexit doom arguments on my own analysis of the weakness of the British economy. There's none so blind as do not see.
Twin deficits, tiny manufacturing sector, massive public and private debt, ponzi scheme housing.
Just needs a llittle prod for the whole house of cards to come crashing down.

[PurpleGorilla]

It's impossible to differentiate from the natural end of the economic cycle, and brexit.

No doubt the economy will take a brexit hit. But it is already in the tulip.

[GB9]

Goods are 10% of the economy, not sure if visitor figures contribute a significant amount outside London.
Consumer spending is by far the most significant factor in UK growth.
Let's see, but I'm coming to the conclusion (from my experience with the housing market in the last few months) that economists, who historically have predicted jack tulip, are wrong in their predictions of modest growth next year. I suspect a technical recession in 2018.

Remember you heard it here first.

You mean you asked 20% more than the last equivalent sale and it didn't sell? House prices are funny like that.

[Chuck]

Could this have anything to do with the ridiculous Black Friday sales that happen before Christmas, thus clearing the masses out of their hard-earned wages before the January sales start?

Same money being spent, just at a different time.

[sasguru]

You mean you asked 20% more than the last equivalent sale and it didn't sell? House prices are funny like that.

Sold all 3 properties 2 at asking, main one I had to drop by 5% (but still made about 400K profit on it in 5 years after doing it up). Pity the fools with mortgages though.
But look at the number of reduced properties on any website.

[sasguru]

Could this have anything to do with the ridiculous Black Friday sales that happen before Christmas, thus clearing the masses out of their hard-earned wages before the January sales start?

Same money being spent, just at a different time.

December sales figures showed the biggest drop in 20 years. Novembers fell too.
Something more fundamental happening here.

[OwlHoot]

December sales figures showed the biggest drop in 20 years. Novembers fell too.

Something more fundamental happening here.

I recently read that the overall UK tax burden is now the highest on record for average earners, and business rates have also recently increased.

Perhaps that could have something to do with it.