Whats going to happen to Sterling when Article 50 is invoked next month?

[shaunbhoy]

You've chosen to combine fantasy with idiocy. Good combi

It has earned your reputation anyway. Why knock it in others Walter?

[chopper]

Money to be made or fall already priced in?

Any real reason to believe it isn't priced in already? After all, Brexit isn't really a surprise to the markets now. The vote has happened, we've been told Brexit means Brexit, we've been told the government vision is to leave the single market, we've been told that Article 50 will be triggered within 7 weeks, we've been told that Juncker wants to send us a €60bn bill, we've been told that the Germans and French want to punish us in order to not make leaving the EU look good to their own populations.

So I can't imagine that much of the money market is placing a bet on Brexit not meaning Brexit - they already think the above means doooooooooom. The markets have probably already underpriced Sterling on a worst case scenario. Trump would *love* to devalue the USD, and there is a lot of potential for the tulipfest in Greece, the banking crisis in Italy and Le Pen in France to pull the Euro down. So there are likely downward pressures on the USD and EUR which will keep them honest against GBP.

More likely, over a 2 year timescale, we'll see the cable back at 1.40. The EU politicians have to make Brexit sound terrible to try and keep their project alive, and UK politicians have to make Brexit look like it means Brexit. More likely that it wont be as bad as they want it to sound. I, personally, wouldn't be converting GBP to USD right now in anticipation of any significant falls beyond background noise.

[clearedforlanding]

This is the one I am keeping my eye on..

[DimPrawn]

This is the one I am keeping my eye on..

Put a nice Iron Condor on there and relax.

[tomtomagain]

You've chosen to combine fantasy with idiocy. Good combi

I dunno.

I think that there is a good chance that £ will be reasonably stable over the next few months. As said before BREXIT is no longer the surprise.

What will happen to the Euro ( with potential impact on £ ) if Le Penn AND Wilders come to power in the next year? How about a rush out of the Euro into "safe havens" - CHF, USD, YEN & GBP.

And of course everyone's favourite Trump card could cause some serious market turbulence with his ill-thought through policies and general dickishness ( his disrespect of the EU, NATO and Germany's export prowess spring to mind ).

And of course the never ending saga of the continuing Greek misery. Wouldn't count that out of the equation yet.

[tomtomagain]

€60bn bill

Is it just me or doesn't that figure look really small?

I know we've all got used to massive bailout figures. The gov. put nearly £40Bn into RBS to keep it afloat in 2008/9

And we only just finished paying for World War I in 2014.

Surely the Treasury would just get the BoE to issue a few bonds, payable over 25 -50 years and be done with it. Which patriotic pensioner wouldn't leap at the chance to buy a slice of the Exiting-The-EU Bond ( with a 3.5% coupon )?

That's if the UK didn't negotiate to pay it off over an extended time period.

[clearedforlanding]

I dunno.

I think that there is a good chance that £ will be reasonably stable over the next few months. As said before BREXIT is no longer the surprise.

What will happen to the Euro ( with potential impact on £ ) if Le Penn AND Wilders come to power in the next year? How about a rush out of the Euro into "safe havens" - CHF, USD, YEN & GBP.

And of course everyone's favourite Trump card could cause some serious market turbulence with his ill-thought through policies and general dickishness ( his disrespect of the EU, NATO and Germany's export prowess spring to mind ).

And of course the never ending saga of the continuing Greek misery. Wouldn't count that out of the equation yet.

I am not convinced that USD and GBP are "Safe Havens" at the moment. I am of the inclination that the EUR is overvalued and in for a volatile year, however I fear that there is no doubt that trump will contribute to a volatile USD. and although Brexit is a certainty how it actually unfolds is going to dictate the stability of GBP.

[europetractor]

Nothing. You cant shake a trillion industry with a relatively "small" top-10 country's local border change.

[chopper]

And we only just finished paying for World War I in 2014.

We didn't, we just did a balance transfer onto a lower rate.

[BlasterBates]

Pound retreats on weak business investment