House price crash signs

[PurpleGorilla]

This..

However right now there's a choice. The BoE can choose not to put them up. Or put them up very slowly, that would be a good choice right now. But I bet you in the not to distant future they'll have no choice. And they'll need to put them up quickly. You don't have to look to far back in time, late 80's when inflation was nearing 6% interest rates had to increase at one point 14%.

The next two years will be very interesting for the UK. My advice would be to get those mortgage rates fixed. 10 year plus. Just do it. You'll thank me later. Or better still sell up and rent for the next few years.

I've heard that argument for 10 years.

Interest rates are not going up.

Period.

We have another 10 years of ZIRP. Minimum.

[OwlHoot]

There is a long standing joke on here about AtW and his inability to buy property at the right time. ...

But that sofa he bought all those years ago must have shot up in value since!

[northernladuk]

But that sofa he bought all those years ago must have shot up in value since!

Yeah but instead of realise his profit he's decided to sit on it for now.

[scooterscot]

I've heard that argument for 10 years.

Interest rates are not going up.

Period.

We have another 10 years of ZIRP. Minimum.

I don't have a lot of respect for the Tories. You might have guessed that already. But even they will not allow the pound to turn into the Zimbabwe shilling. Inflation is coming to the UK in a big way in the next couple of years and printing more money will change nothing. In fact many would argue QE hasn't changed anything in the first place.

[PurpleGorilla]

I don't have a lot of respect for the Tories. You might have guessed that already. But even they will not allow the pound to turn into the Zimbabwe shilling. Inflation is coming to the UK in a big way in the next couple of years and printing more money will change nothing. In fact many would argue QE hasn't changed anything in the first place.

All QE has done is give the banks more leverage to gear up.

Inflation isn't coming any time soon. IMHO

[sasguru]

Inflation isn't coming any time soon. IMHO

Clealry you haven't been food shopping or bought any electronics or a car recently.

[PurpleGorilla]

Clealry you haven't been food shopping or bought any electronics or a car recently.

Cheap cheap cheap!

[OwlHoot]

I don't have a lot of respect for the Tories. You might have guessed that already. But even they will not allow the pound to turn into the Zimbabwe shilling. Inflation is coming to the UK in a big way in the next couple of years and printing more money will change nothing. In fact many would argue QE hasn't changed anything in the first place.

Not wishing to sound cynical and unpatriotic, with talk about poodles and so on, but the economic reality is that the UK will do exactly what the US does.

If inflation and interest rates start shooting up in the US then they also will in the UK, and if they don't in the US then they won't in the UK, and while the US embarks on QE then so does the UK.

The simple point is that no sane UK macro-economic policy can deviate one iota from what the US does, any more than a small tug boat can deflect an aircraft carrier.

It isn't primarily about ingratiating ourselves with the US, or necessarily admiring and wanting to emulate their economic policies, but simply a practical matter, "technical" if you like, of avoiding economic imbalances.

[Mordac]

This..

However right now there's a choice. The BoE can choose not to put them up. Or put them up very slowly, that would be a good choice right now. But I bet you in the not to distant future they'll have no choice. And they'll need to put them up quickly. You don't have to look to far back in time, late 80's when inflation was nearing 6% interest rates had to increase at one point 14%.

The next two years will be very interesting for the UK. My advice would be to get those mortgage rates fixed. 10 year plus. Just do it. You'll thank me later. Or better still sell up and rent for the next few years.

It was 15%, and that was only for 1 day iirc (post ERM fiasco). I seem to remember they went back to a very manageable 12%
The whole ERM thing was Major's idea, and right up there with some of his other moments of genius, such as banging on about "back to basics" while banging Edwina.

[Mordac]

Clealry you haven't been food shopping or bought any electronics or a car recently.

I haven't noticed any of those going up. I haven't needed to buy a car, but the airwaves are bursting with ads for low finance, minimal deposits etc, so those thinking of buying are in a pretty good position.

Electronics seem to be getting cheaper - we just bought a new Bosch vacuum cleaner for half the price it was 2 months ago (or so Currys claimed, but they aren't allowed to lie about discounts and previous prices). There were plenty of other bargains at the time.

Food isn't really going up, but the pack sizes of some things seem to be going down - which is effectively a price rise, but in many cases it just means we throw away less. So swings and roundabouts, really.