Tory secret deal with EU

[WordIsBond]

If you are right the EU will cave in to the UK's demands, but that isn't going to happen.

Nope. If you are right the UK will cave in to the EU's demands. If I'm right, they'll negotiate a reasonable agreement somewhere between what the UK wants and what the EU wants.

[BlasterBates]

Nope. If you are right the UK will cave in to the EU's demands. If I'm right, they'll negotiate a reasonable agreement somewhere between what the UK wants and what the EU wants.

It will reflect their sizes and the "reasonable deal" will 0.1 x UK + 0.9 x EU, as will the UK-US deal.

When Brexit kicked off UK government ministers said they'd start informal negotiations straight away but the EU refused.

Government ministers also said that they would get agreements with individual government ministers, but they refused.

Then Government ministers said they would get a quick deal, but the EU refused and said pay the bill first.

Then the Government said they would run the talks in parallel, but the EU refused that as well, and said the UK Government was delusional and went public with that.

It doesn't look to me like the EU is going to be meeting the UK half-way.

[WordIsBond]

It will reflect their sizes and the "reasonable deal" will 0.1 x UK + 0.9 x EU, as will the UK-US deal.

OK. What exactly will a 0.1 x UK + 0.9 x EU deal look like?

[WordIsBond]

OK. What exactly will a 0.1 x UK + 0.9 x EU deal look like?

I'm serious. How much money? Will freedom of movement be required? What kind of tariffs? What happens to the City? If you think that it is going to be that one-sided, why don't you go on record what it means and then we'll see what happens?

[original PM]

When your successful growth is measured as 1 to 2 percentage points per annum, 2/14ths 14% is a monster hit, also this would be against the prosperous member(s) i.e Germany and France. But having said that so is 20% unemployment and that doesn't seem to register with the EU. Not sure how that would play out with a recession in Germany and France, I would expect that would mark the end of the EU and the Euro.

The UK will not get any sort of Free trade or exit deal with the EU as they aren't a country, rather 27 states with a full range of economic and social issues. In the inevitable WTO rules scenario the EU will come off economically much, much worse than the UK. This will ultimately in a few short years lead to the break up and killing of the EU.

[VectraMan]

The UK will not get any sort of Free trade or exit deal with the EU as they aren't a country, rather 27 states with a full range of economic and social issues. In the inevitable WTO rules scenario the EU will come off economically much, much worse than the UK. This will ultimately in a few short years lead to the break up and killing of the EU.

The EU states seem remarkably united in their approach to Brexit, unlike the UK states (I assume you mean the EU has 27 states and not the UK). Normally we'd say that England as the biggest by population and economy dominates the union, but the Brexiteers have dismissed that in this thread, so who knows? Maybe now Northern Ireland is dominant, but then they don't seem to be able to form a government, so perhaps it's now Wales.

Either way you could be right about the lack of deal. Thereafter the EU has to deal with 8% of its exports now being under WTO rules, and the UK 45%. So yes of course it is the EU that will be doomed whilst the UK is transformed into a golden utopia with rainbows and unicorns.

[scooterscot]

The UK will not get any sort of Free trade or exit deal with the EU as they aren't a country, rather 27 states with a full range of economic and social issues. In the inevitable WTO rules scenario the EU will come off economically much, much worse than the UK. This will ultimately in a few short years lead to the break up and killing of the EU.

Talk about overstating ones self importance.

[squarepeg]

They do, the Swiss had a referendum and over 50% voted against it, but they can't change it because the EU is bigger,

The UK will also cave in on this as well.

Greenland left the EU to control it's fisheries but actually the EU still has full control. It dictates Greenland's quotas.

As long as the EU doesn't set Marmite consumption quotas for the UK, we're all going to be fine.

[chopper]

The EU's own mantra is "nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

So for sure, we can talk money, and Northern Ireland, and the rights of EU citizens already in the UK first. And we can sit there in front of that piece of paper and say "yep, we're happy with that." The EU will say "we're happy with it too".

Then we say "Oh, but there's the small matter of trade. Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed".

The EU's stance is that they want to discuss their agenda first, but that doesn't mean that said agenda has to be signed before we get to talk about ours. I mean, why on earth would be agree to pay them *anything* if the framework for a trade deal isn't also in place?

[darmstadt]

As long as the EU doesn't set Marmite consumption quotas for the UK, we're all going to be fine.

I thought I'd just throw in that it was invented by a German from Darmstadt