Civil war breaks out in the Tory Party Civil war breaks out in the Tory Party - Page 2
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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    I particularly liked her response to that article


    She's probably the biggest star in the party. I wouldn't be at all surprised if she ends up leader of the opposition once Corby is PM.
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  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    Bye bye Brexit, Brexit bye bye, bye bye Brexit.....

    Good luck with that If you were to evaluate things dispassionately, you'd note that ~85% voted for a manifesto that was based on leaving the SM and ending FoM. Indeed, that's precisely why Labour attracted ~25% of the UKIP vote (50% went to the Tories). Labour killed Brexit as an issue for many voters.

    A more likely outcome, I fear, is complete chaos in the interim (Tories+DUP is totally unsustainable), followed by another election, and a messy exit. It does somewhat increase the likelihood of a "soft Brexit" if that's the path pursued by HMG, but there's little evidence that the EU27 want this, and it would split the Tories in the process (see: chaos).

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by VectraMan View Post


    She's probably the biggest star in the party. I wouldn't be at all surprised if she ends up leader of the opposition once Corby is PM.
    I'd support that (not Korbyn ), even though I completely disagree with her on Brexit. She'd be a great leader. However, it seems quite unlikely at this point, for procedural reasons among others.

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    Good luck with that If you were to evaluate things dispassionately, you'd note that ~85% voted for a manifesto that was based on leaving the SM and ending FoM. Indeed, that's precisely why Labour attracted ~25% of the UKIP vote (50% went to the Tories). Labour killed Brexit as an issue for many voters.

    A more likely outcome, I fear, is complete chaos in the interim (Tories+DUP is totally unsustainable), followed by another election, and a messy exit. It does somewhat increase the likelihood of a "soft Brexit" if that's the path pursued by HMG, but there's little evidence that the EU27 want this, and it would split the Tories in the process (see: chaos).
    I look at it like this, the only way Brexit can be successful is if you have a stonking great majority and you really can walk out the talks whilst the economy tanks, and then build an independent economy whilst everyone eats gruel for 10 years, that is exactly why May called the election. I must admit when she called the election I figured that the probability of a proper Brexit rose somewhat if she could pull it off.

    What you have now is a weak government that means the best you can hope for is "Switzerland", and the EU controlling most of the UK trading laws, I spent a few years in Switzerland and the EU clearly push it around. Swiss ministers grovel in Brussels so they can keep the planes flying.

    That is where the UK is heading and whether they have an EU membership card or not won't make a great deal of difference.
    I'm alright Jack

  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    I look at it like this, the only way Brexit can be successful is if you have a stonking great majority and you really can walk out the talks whilst the economy tanks, and then build an independent economy whilst everyone eats gruel for 10 years, that is exactly why May called the election. I must admit when she called the election I figured that the probability of a proper Brexit rose somewhat if she could pull it off.

    What you have now is a weak government that means the best you can hope for is "Switzerland", and the EU controlling most of the UK trading laws, I spent a few years in Switzerland and the EU clearly push it around. Swiss ministers grovel in Brussels so they can keep the planes flying.

    That is where the UK is heading and whether they have an EU membership card or not won't make a great deal of difference.
    The way I view this is that Brexit retains large popular support; CUK isn't representative Certainly, it had only a small majority in the referendum itself, but polling since the referendum points to ~70% of the electorate respecting the mandate, even if there are arguments over the quality/deceitfulness of the campaigns run by either side. The majority of voters are democrats, if that isn't a truism We can argue about precisely what the mandate might be (SM, CU etc.), but there's no scenario in which we don't leave in some form without the electorate becoming, er, shouty. Moreover, the reality is that both major parties stood on a manifesto of leaving the SM and ending FoM, because they both perceived that to be the message from the electorate, rightly or wrongly (I think rightly). Labour simply favour a comprehensive free trade deal that puts the economy before immigration.

    That said, here in the UK, we have a propensity for talking in a bubble. This is as much about the EU27 as us. They certainly don't want another Switzerland. They would accept an off-the-shelf EEA arrangement, but I cannot foresee either Labour or the Tories selling FoM back to the electorate, given their recent manifestos. It was, indeed, rather surprising how similar the two manifestos were on Brexit, which is precisely why Labour outperformed expectations in post-industrial northern towns, with 25% of the UKIP vote moving to them. If they change that stance, any resurgence is looking rather weak and wobbly. It's difficult to see a clean way out, really, which is why Sterling has responded with a "meh" to the renewed vigour from the ~30% of the electorate that are hardcore Remain.
    Last edited by jamesbrown; 10th June 2017 at 11:46.

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    The way I view this is that Brexit retains large popular support; CUK isn't representative Certainly, it had only a small majority in the referendum itself, but polling since the referendum points to ~70% of the electorate respecting the mandate, even if there are arguments over the quality/deceitfulness of the campaigns run by either side. The majority of voters are democrats, if that isn't a truism We can argue about precisely what the mandate might be (SM, CU etc.), but there's no scenario in which we don't leave in some form without the electorate becoming, er, shouty. Moreover, the reality is that both major parties stood on a manifesto of leaving the SM and ending FoM, because they both perceived that to be the message from the electorate, rightly or wrongly (I think rightly). Labour simply favour a comprehensive free trade deal that puts the economy before immigration.

    That said, here in the UK, we have a propensity for talking in a bubble. This is as much about the EU27 as us. They certainly don't want another Switzerland. They would accept an off-the-shelf EEA arrangement, but I cannot foresee either Labour or the Tories selling FoM back to the electorate, given their recent manifestos. It was, indeed, rather surprising how similar the two manifestos were on Brexit, which is precisely why Labour outperformed expectations in post-industrial northern towns, with 25% of the UKIP vote moving to them. If they change that stance, any resurgence is looking rather weak and wobbly. It's difficult to see a clean way out, really, which is why Sterling has responded with a "meh" to the renewed vigour from the ~30% of the electorate that are hardcore Remain.
    The first lesson you should learn is don't trust the polls.
    There are a great deal more than 30% of the population who are anti-Brexit.
    Whatever the figure is, as reality bites, that figure will rise.
    Apart from the hardcore Brexiters, who I'd put at at less than 30% , most people would tolereate a few Polski skleps rather than having rising inflation and a moribund economy.
    Last edited by sasguru; 10th June 2017 at 11:50.
    Hard Brexit now!
    #prayfornodeal

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by sasguru View Post
    The first lesson you should learn is don't trust the polls.
    There are a great deal more than 30% of the population who are anti-Brexit.
    That'll be ~48%. In a Venn Diagram, you'd note an intersection between democrats and Remainers. Not perfect statistical dependence, I venture . I don't believe polling in the details, but in the broad-brush, sure, why wouldn't I?

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post

    That said, here in the UK, we have a propensity for talking in a bubble. This is as much about the EU27 as us. They certainly don't want another Switzerland. .
    No they don't but it is not a deal breaker. There are two principles that are important to the EU

    1) UK paying into the budget
    2) Freedom of movement or very close

    You get those two you have a deal, you don't I agree no easy deal, i.e. it will take several years and you end up with a goods only trade.

    The UK will get hobsons choice. Theresa's white paper is "fairy land",which is why the Ambassador resigned and Juncker said she was deluded. At the end of two years either the UK agrees to pay the EU and keep FOM or the borders close, and it's economic meltdown. The EU has popular support in Germany for that approach.

    Up until 2019 the economy will be going down hill and Brexit enthusiasm will evaporate. There will be at least one or two more elections.


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  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    That'll be ~48%. In a Venn Diagram, you'd note an intersection between democrats and Remainers.
    That's why a second referendum is necessary. It's the democratic thing to do.
    Hard Brexit now!
    #prayfornodeal

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by sasguru View Post
    That's why a second referendum is necessary. It's the democratic thing to do.
    You'd still lose - betcha

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