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  1. #21

    More fingers than teeth

    BlasterBates - scorchio!

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    I'm alright Jack

  2. #22

    Godlike

    jamesbrown is a fount of knowledge

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    Effectively the Tories are now a "Zombie" government with no credible way forward. If they go Soft Brexit they'll lose support to UKIP, if they continue Hard Brexit they'll continue to bleed to Labour.
    Yup. The outcome has superficially increased the probability of a "softer" Brexit, but has substantially increased the probability of a car crash. I don't believe a central option was ever available from the EU27 (they will never compromise on the four freedoms, and why should they?), but May is now caught between a rock (no Parliamentary majority for her White Paper) and a hard place (a small minority can easily precipitate the collapse of any confidence and supply arrangement). There's no mandate for a "soft" Brexit or a "hard" Brexit, and no mandate for Remain. A crashy car beckons, I fear. But what's the alternative; a swift Tory leadership election, GE, and a credible prospect of Korbyn? A Korbyn gov't will make Brexit look like a sideshow. I don't see a clear route out. Sometimes democracy is stupid (or, rather, the swivel-eyed remainers and leavers are two sides of the same coin ).

  3. #23

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    Things hotting up for the Brexit negotiations.

    Airbus lays down Brexit conditions

    I'm alright Jack

  4. #24

    More fingers than teeth

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    Things hotting up for the Brexit negotiations.

    Airbus lays down Brexit conditions

    I'm still waiting to hear what she promised Nissan in Sunderland, open and transparent government
    Brexit is having a wee in the middle of the room at a house party because nobody is talking to you, and then complaining about the smell.

  5. #25

    More fingers than teeth

    BlasterBates - scorchio!

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesbrown View Post
    Yup. The outcome has superficially increased the probability of a "softer" Brexit, but has substantially increased the probability of a car crash. I don't believe a central option was ever available from the EU27 (they will never compromise on the four freedoms, and why should they?), but May is now caught between a rock (no Parliamentary majority for her White Paper) and a hard place (a small minority can easily precipitate the collapse of any confidence and supply arrangement). There's no mandate for a "soft" Brexit or a "hard" Brexit, and no mandate for Remain. A crashy car beckons, I fear. But what's the alternative; a swift Tory leadership election, GE, and a credible prospect of Korbyn? A Korbyn gov't will make Brexit look like a sideshow. I don't see a clear route out. Sometimes democracy is stupid (or, rather, the swivel-eyed remainers and leavers are two sides of the same coin ).
    Depends what you mean by "car crash".

    A "car crash" is a sh*tty EEA deal with truce to put off the "Hard/Soft Brexit" into the future.

    You are quite right that the EU won't compromise on the FOM and they will be offering the UK EEA or nothing. Only a significant Tory majority could resist by at least temporarily allowing the borders to close to show they mean business. That is now not an option and will bring the government crashing down. Corbyn in interviews has always said his priority is to avoid no deal, and when push comes to shove there is a majority in parliament for whatever interim arrangement is shoved down the UK's throat offered.

    I'm alright Jack

  6. #26

    Lord of the Vectras

    VectraMan - scorchio!

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    Things hotting up for the Brexit negotiations.

    Airbus lays down Brexit conditions

    That sort of thing could be the real story here. A weak government is vulnerable to lobbying from business and other groups.

    I think what gets forgotten is that for the most part apathy rules okay. Remainers, who by definition are moderate, haven't exactly risen up to fight the oppressors, as much as some of us might have hoped. They largely accept it and can't be bothered with another argument. The majority of Brexit voters won't be any different; Corbyn could commit to Brexit but make it a low priority, "Now's not the time to risk the economy" or something similar, and it could bumble on a few more years before and everyone but the hard line Brexiteers lose interest.

    You can say "no mandate for remaining", but maintaining the status quo doesn't require a mandate.
    Will work inside IR35. Or for food.

  7. #27

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    "Now's not the time to risk the economy" is an okay stop-gap. What I would prefer to see is a number of Brexit options, costed and forecasted 10-20 years into the future, so that we can all clearly see which option(s) have clear economic and/or social benefits and which ones don't. Preferably issued by an independent assessor (London School of Economics?).

    Surely after a year since the referendum there's something more tangible available from the government than "trust us"?

  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlasterBates View Post
    Depends what you mean by "car crash".

    A "car crash" is a sh*tty EEA deal with truce to put off the "Hard/Soft Brexit" into the future.

    You are quite right that the EU won't compromise on the FOM and they will be offering the UK EEA or nothing. Only a significant Tory majority could resist by at least temporarily allowing the borders to close to show they mean business. That is now not an option and will bring the government crashing down. Corbyn in interviews has always said his priority is to avoid no deal, and when push comes to shove there is a majority in parliament for whatever interim arrangement is shoved down the UK's throat offered.

    No, I mean precisely the opposite of EEA. Faced with the EEA or nothing, it's most likely to be nothing. There's always a sufficient minority in Parliament to bring down the gov't if the Brexit they want is being diluted (especially by the time this actually comes into play, i.e. 12-18 months away), and the opposition parties will happily oblige. There's no scenario in which an EEA-style deal gets through Parliament, because the Tory backbenchers (assisted by the opposition) would prefer a re-election in which the hard-Brexit mandate is coupled with a more liberal agenda on spending (350m per week for the NHS), EU citizens (unilateral declaration) and immigration (bin the 100k target), as well as a more positive youth agenda. That's dangerous territory, because elections are unpredictable. As I say, an increased probability of a soft Brexit is illusory because there's no longer a "strong and stable" gov't to do anything that leaves a minority of backbenchers in a shouty mood, and Labour will pounce on any splits to force an election.

  9. #29

    I live on CUK

    SueEllen is a fount of knowledge

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    Corbyn is ready to bring down the Tories.
    "You’re just a bad memory who doesn’t know when to go away" JR

  10. #30

    Suffers Fools...Badly!

    shaunbhoy is always on top

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    Quote Originally Posted by SueEllen View Post
    Corbyn is ready to bring down the Tories.
    At the next GE, all the Tories need to do is to offer every 18-year-old school leaver, a one-off no strings attached payment of £10k tax free.
    This could be used to help them get their driving test passed, their first car, the first year's insurance, the latest phone, and a decent holiday before plunging into the workplace.
    Cheaper than Corbyn's write-off of all tuition fees and a guaranteed way to dupe the gullible Millenials into voting Tory.
    Sorted.
    “The period of the disintegration of the European Union has begun. And the first vessel to have departed is Britain”

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