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UK economic data weakens

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    #21
    Originally posted by tomtomagain View Post
    But to be fair you've been predicting this for months now.

    Eventually, you'll be right. That doesn't make you a prophet.
    nor even a stopped clock, because unlike sas that is at least right twice a day.

    maybe a rusty, crooked, north-facing sundial.
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      #22
      Originally posted by tomtomagain View Post
      Recessions come and go all the time.

      8 years since the last one. Probably due one in the next couple of years anyway .... with or without BREXIT.
      No it is my contention that Brexit will cause a recession due to increased prices caused by the falling pound affecting consumers.
      The UK economy is more consumer led than, say, the German economy which is export-oriented and runs a surplus.
      This recession will be contra-cyclical, in the sense other rich economies will not be in negative growth.
      In other words it wouldn't happen without Brexit.

      But more than a temporary recession, if a bad Brexit deal is on the cards, then a hollowing out of the UK economy will take place, for some sectors, maybe even the most important one. That hollowing out is already happening as those of us in London know.
      Hard Brexit now!
      #prayfornodeal

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        #23
        ...and there's more

        New trade deals won't make up for loss of EU trade
        I'm alright Jack

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          #24
          Originally posted by northernladyuk View Post
          You say it so casually as if Brexit will have no impact on it.
          I say it casually because having been born in the 70's I have lived through many recessions. They come, they go.

          Whether there will be a "BREXIT" recession. Nobody knows. Whether the next recession will be deep and painful, or mild and short. Nobody knows.

          Whether the next recession will directly affect me. Nobody knows.

          There are plenty of "commentators" who "know". But as we all know, they don't really know, because nobody knows.

          So enjoy today but make sure you have a war-chest, keep your skills up-to date, your debts manageable and your mind open to new opportunities. And you'll be alright. But to be fair. I don't know.

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            #25
            Originally posted by BlasterBates View Post
            Who cares? At least we'll control our borders, you know - get out of that Shengen area, have our own visas etc.

            Oh wait, we already got it!

            Comment


              #26
              Originally posted by tomtomagain View Post
              I say it casually because having been born in the 70's I have lived through many recessions. They come, they go.

              Whether there will be a "BREXIT" recession. Nobody knows. Whether the next recession will be deep and painful, or mild and short. Nobody knows.

              Whether the next recession will directly affect me. Nobody knows.

              There are plenty of "commentators" who "know". But as we all know, they don't really know, because nobody knows.

              So enjoy today but make sure you have a war-chest, keep your skills up-to date, your debts manageable and your mind open to new opportunities. And you'll be alright. But to be fair. I don't know.
              That's where you're wrong.
              We do know.
              We do know that any agreement with the EU will logically and necessarily be worse than the best possible deal - the one we have now.
              And we also know, pretty much, that any other trade deals will not make up for this loss.

              So we do know that things must necessarily get worse.
              What we don't know is how much worse.

              But I agree with your statement "So enjoy today but make sure you have a war-chest, keep your skills up-to date, your debts manageable and your mind open to new opportunities".
              Hard Brexit now!
              #prayfornodeal

              Comment


                #27
                Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                We do know that any agreement with the EU will logically and necessarily be worse than the best possible deal
                Well YOU "know" that. But as you have raisins for a brain, nobody gives your world view any credence.

                But don't let that stop you enlightening us with your one-dimensional hare-brained ill-informed dipsh*t theories.

                They keep most of us amused whilst we wait for the real facts to emerge.

                “The period of the disintegration of the European Union has begun. And the first vessel to have departed is Britain”

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                  #28
                  Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                  That's where you're wrong.
                  We do know.
                  No. We just think we know. It may even be highly probable. But it is not an immutable law of physics.

                  But I agree with your statement "So enjoy today but make sure you have a war-chest, keep your skills up-to date, your debts manageable and your mind open to new opportunities".
                  I'm full of pop-wisdom.

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                    #29
                    Originally posted by tomtomagain View Post
                    No. We just think we know. It may even be highly probable. But it is not an immutable law of physics.

                    .
                    Wrong again. There's no such thing as an immutable law of physics. All physical theories are falsifiable. There is only certainty in mathematics.
                    You've made a category error in your "thinking" (as well as showing you don't understand physics) - it is inevitable and an immutable law of logic that any deal with the EU MUST be worse than the best possible deal we have now.
                    It's an error that our leaders are making too and one that Barnier pointed out yesterday.

                    http://news.sky.com/story/frictionle...rexit-10938672

                    So the costs of the inevitable "friction" is what it boils down to.
                    Last edited by sasguru; 7 July 2017, 15:14.
                    Hard Brexit now!
                    #prayfornodeal

                    Comment


                      #30
                      Originally posted by sasguru View Post
                      Wrong again. There's no such thing as an immutable law of physics. All physical theories are falsifiable. There is only certainty in mathematics.
                      You've made a category error in your "thinking" (as well as showing you don't understand physics) - it is inevitable and an immutable law of logic that any deal with the EU MUST be worse than the best possible deal we have now.
                      It's an error that our leaders are making too and one that Barnier pointed out yesterday.

                      'Frictionless trade' with EU 'not possible' post-Brexit

                      So the costs of the inevitable "friction" is what it boils down to.
                      FFS, am I going to have to type this out again. OK, I'll do it for the sake of the board.

                      You are assuming "all things being equal", which they aren't. Yes, the EU will offer the UK a worse deal than today. That part is logical. But outside of that deal and the union, chess pieces can be moved around so that overall the UK could have a better position than today. Your point is moot and trivial.

                      For example, sassy got offered a uni place and a poly place. Those two offers were the only options he had. He lost the uni place because his grades were too low due to bad choice of hobbies. But he took the poly place. On the surface he thought he had the worse deal. But, poly meant he spent less money travelling. He invested that extra money and bought a car with it. That car enabled him to get to dogging hotspots where he made many friends.

                      See what I mean? You are correct about the deal being worse than today's deal. But from that point, your inferences are debatable, not certainties.

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