UK slipping into recession "like old man lowering himself into a bath"

[Fronttoback]

This is all ad-hoc speculation with no facts or figures to back it up, meaningless.

Sockasstick

[sasguru]

It's likely that the UK will see a recession as business adjusts to the new world and recalibrates. But after that why can't there be more growth than recently? One scenario is that the UK drops corporation tax to attract global financial services back in to London. When tethered to a large trading block you will get returns proportional to that blocks average economic power. Once untethered you can optimise your levers to work to your strengths unconstrained.

The government could start by adding some funding to cheap loans for tech startups. Turn the UK into a startup hub. Tie that into the top end universities so that we get the top brains coming out actively looking to build startups instead of going into corporates - because there are low risk financial incentives. Those startups could yield big returns in the long run. Currently tech startups go to silicon valley if they think they stand a chance of making it big. Government could work to change that.

Not bad suggestions on the face of it.
But financial services and fintech were already thriving before Brexit, now they're buggering off, as anyone with connections in London knows.
And how does that help the average Brexiter in Wales or Cornwall or Sunderland?
Or even the average CUK cretin? Finance and tech startups are beyond their ken.
The Japs who run a large swathe of manufacturing in the UK have already made it crystal clear they're only here because of access to the single market and they'll be rethinking depending on the Brexit deal.

[OwlHoot]

At least the old man is presumably lowering himself legs first, and can relax once in.

Had we remained in the EU, then over time we'd have been gently but firmly pushed down underwater head first. ...

[sasguru]

At least the old man is presumably lowering himself legs first, and can relax once in.

Had we remained in the EU, then over time we'd have been gently but firmly pushed down underwater head first. ...

What a pile of bollox. We had all the opt-outs under the sun while having all the benefits: opt-out of the Euro, opt-out of any further political union, opt-out of free Shengen movement.
We could have controlled EU migration using the EU's own rules - no access to the public purse.

[Fronttoback]

Not bad suggestions on the face of it.
But financial services and fintech were already thriving before Brexit, now they're buggering off, as anyone with connections in London knows.
And how does that help the average Brexiter in Wales or Cornwall or Sunderland?
Or even the average CUK cretin? Finance and tech startups are beyond their ken.
The Japs who run a large swathe of manufacturing in the UK have already made it crystal clear they're only here because of access to the single market and they'll be rethinking depending on the Brexit deal.

Once we've got the heart beating again then we can work on the injuries to the arms and legs.

Wales can itself become a tax haven if it chooses. Make England a startup hub. Scotland and the North of England can have the fishing. Reintroduce compulsory national service to facilitate learning of a trade for those that have no direction. Sorted.

[sasguru]

I do hope it's a hard no-deal Brexit

[darmstadt]

My new hero! Someone with the bottle to speak out stridently, regardless of all this PC bollox!

She did have a bloody cheek trying to interfere with the British democratic process (no doubt on behalf of shadowy characters bankrolling her behind the scenes).

Nope, the above is absolute bollocks. May wanted to use the Royal Prerogative to push her bill through without a vote in Parliament on it which is all that Miller campaigned for. Imagine if May decide to use Royal Prerogative to push a bill through which made insisted that everyone had to submit to a security check every 6 months and if they failed would have to undertake Conservative Rehabilitation Values, would that be democratic?

[BlasterBates]

It's the BBC's fault

not the slowing economy, crashing pound, companies moving thousands of jobs, inflation and declining wages that they simply report.



Brexit is like Communism to make to work you have to force people to like it

[sal]

I am not pro-brexit but don't you think that you are being a bit short termist in your thinking?

If you look at a 10-20 year horizon there are many scenarios where Britain could be independent and thriving in the longer term. A lot of people voted for their children and grandchildrens futures, not their own.

It's likely that the UK will see a recession as business adjusts to the new world and recalibrates. But after that why can't there be more growth than recently? One scenario is that the UK drops corporation tax to attract global financial services back in to London. When tethered to a large trading block you will get returns proportional to that blocks average economic power. Once untethered you can optimise your levers to work to your strengths unconstrained.

The government could start by adding some funding to cheap loans for tech startups. Turn the UK into a startup hub. Tie that into the top end universities so that we get the top brains coming out actively looking to build startups instead of going into corporates - because there are low risk financial incentives. Those startups could yield big returns in the long run. Currently tech startups go to silicon valley if they think they stand a chance of making it big. Government could work to change that.

The hope for the bright long term future relies on the UK government being any better than the EU. The painful fact is that it's much worse.

UK Governments from the past two decades have been all short termist. Recent debacles are clear sign that it's not getting any better. What makes you think this is about to change and they will start looking 20 years ahead when the supposedly positive change from Brexit should materialise?

Good luck getting the financial sector back once they sail away. Why would any investor pick UK over EU post brexit? What do we have to offer that the EU can't?

Startups rely extremely on talent, good luck attracting them after shutting the door to 500mil EU citizens.

The whole approach to Brexit was like serving the 2 month notice on your permie role, because someone told you there are big money in contracting. Without researching whether you have enough experience or the state of the market or saving enough money. So here we are notice (A50) served, and no agents are calling back for those lucrative contract roles (FTAs)

[meridian]

I am not pro-brexit but don't you think that you are being a bit short termist in your thinking?

If you look at a 10-20 year horizon there are many scenarios where Britain could be independent and thriving in the longer term. A lot of people voted for their children and grandchildrens futures, not their own.

It's likely that the UK will see a recession as business adjusts to the new world and recalibrates. But after that why can't there be more growth than recently?

Brexiters have been asked time and time again to provide a plan for more growth, so where it that plan?

One scenario is that the UK drops corporation tax to attract global financial services back in to London. When tethered to a large trading block you will get returns proportional to that blocks average economic power. Once untethered you can optimise your levers to work to your strengths unconstrained.

The UK can drop corporation tax now.

The government could start by adding some funding to cheap loans for tech startups.

They can do that now.

Turn the UK into a startup hub.

They can do that now.

Tie that into the top end universities so that we get the top brains coming out actively looking to build startups instead of going into corporates - because there are low risk financial incentives.

They can do that now.

Those startups could yield big returns in the long run. Currently tech startups go to silicon valley if they think they stand a chance of making it big.

And why is that? Is it anything, or nothing, to do with the UK being part of the EU?

Government could work to change that.

They can do that now.

Once we've got the heart beating again then we can work on the injuries to the arms and legs.

Wales can itself become a tax haven if it chooses.

Okay.

Make England a startup hub.

They can do that now.

Scotland and the North of England can have the fishing.

Okay.

Reintroduce compulsory national service to facilitate learning of a trade for those that have no direction. Sorted.

They can do that now.

So, effectively, your grand plan for rejuvenating the UK is to turn Wales into a tax haven and to survive on fishing? Those are the opportunities that you want a recession for?