Whats the Odds?

[tarbera]

Some info

I was browsing JobServe and applied for a role (project Manager)18 mins after it was advertised and went for lunch, on return I noticed the role was with the chap who got me my current role to I called him up, he had not seen my CV as he had 176 application in 1 hour, and he was only allowed to submit 3 people before 4pm deadline same day !!!!

[edison]

Had this debate with a friend....

Supposing agency selects 1 CV from 100 job board responses - thus its 1 in a 100 to get a CV submitted through an agency to a hiring manager.

The hiring manager gets 10 agencies to send 1 CV each and offers one candidate - thus its 1 in 10 to then get the offer.

Are the total odds of getting the offer 1:1000 or 1:110?

In my experience, one would never ask 10 agencies to source a single candidate. I personally use 2-3 depending on the skill set required and the relative strengths of each agency.

[edison]

I am not doubting your true experience and appreciate the insights.

However, looking through the "candidate lense" - the candidate isn't going to know who the senior agents are or have knowledge of the agency-to-HM relationship - all PSL agents tell candidates they are the Clientco's drinking best buddies. Also bearing in mind the economic stagnation, the resulting commoditization of the workforce which creates equally competent applicants to compete for limited roles - then it will be more likely for recruitment to be trend towards simplistic supply and demand models.

Thus, from a maths perspective, the chances of being offered for one position through a typical recruitment funnel that attracts circa 200 applicants, permits 2 applicants to be submitted per agency and has 10 PSL agencies is - 1000:1?

I think you have hit the nail on the head, there are some skills that are very commonplace now and/or can be outsourced easily for a fraction of the cost (notwithstanding any quality issues.) It is a market after all and the brutal reality is that there are some contractors who are just not that marketable any more.

[shaunbhoy]

I am not doubting your true experience and appreciate the insights.

However, looking through the "candidate lense" - the candidate isn't going to know who the senior agents are or have knowledge of the agency-to-HM relationship - all PSL agents tell candidates they are the Clientco's drinking best buddies. Also bearing in mind the economic stagnation, the resulting commoditization of the workforce which creates equally competent applicants to compete for limited roles - then it will be more likely for recruitment to be trend towards simplistic supply and demand models.

Thus, from a maths perspective, the chances of being offered for one position through a typical recruitment funnel that attracts circa 200 applicants, permits 2 applicants to be submitted per agency and has 10 PSL agencies is - 1000:1?

Just make sure your CV is lodged with as many agencies as possible, thereby increasing your chances of it landing on the right hiring manager's desk.
Always worked for me, if you are a good candidate then nobody is going to get too ruffled about receiving your CV more than once.

HTH

[BrilloPad]

I would ask sasguru. Then choose the other answer.

[WTFH]

Mathematically 1:1000, if everything else is equal.

[pauly]

Mathematically 1:1000, if everything else is equal.

Interesting. its a 1000:1 - but not uniform in the process (unlike sequential coin tossing producing heads all the time). If you can get past the first process you go from 1000:1 to 10:1. Rapid drop in odds - emm...is there a mathematical way of showing this?

Typically banks have 10 PSL agents submitting 2 applicants and usually get 200 applicants for generic roles. This would mean (in theory) throwing a CV over the jobserve wall would give in 1:1000 odds of actually getting offered the role.

You could say that all candidates are not equal in reality, but also in reality most agents are not going to look at all the CV's but skim and pick randomly. So could be that the odds tend towards the mathematical model, when you offset the +/-realities.

1:1000 odds of actually getting offered the role. Feels like a waste of freaking time with better odds doing something else with your time.

[northernladuk]

Interesting. its a 1000:1 - but not uniform in the process (unlike sequential coin tossing producing heads all the time). If you can get past the first process you go from 1000:1 to 10:1. Rapid drop in odds - emm...is there a mathematical way of showing this?

It's in the thread I sent you? You didn't read it did you?

Typically banks have 10 PSL agents submitting 2 applicants and usually get 200 applicants for generic roles. This would mean (in theory) throwing a CV over the jobserve wall would give in 1:1000 odds of actually getting offered the role.

You could say that all candidates are not equal in reality, but also in reality most agents are not going to look at all the CV's but skim and pick randomly. So could be that the odds tend towards the mathematical model, when you offset the +/-realities.

So you were after trying to apply maths to a situation which you can't. And some of the points you make above are even worse. Why aren't you listening to anything anyone has told you?

And this....

1:1000 odds of actually getting offered the role. Feels like a waste of freaking time with better odds doing something else with your time.

Jesus wept.

[pauly]

It's in the thread I sent you? You didn't read it did you?

Actually, I did - https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/prob...dependent.html

Don't say anything about the non-linear reduction of odds. Coin tosses are always 0.5 probability versus a lumpy odds reduction in a typical PSL recruitment funnel.

[WTFH]

Coin tosses are always 0.5 probability

No they are not.