The ageing population myth (Very boring thread)

[xoggoth]

We are constantly told that the pressures on the NHS are down to an elderly population. Always been a bit sceptical of that as seen reports that poor health is not related so much to age as to closeness to death. As life expectancy rises, so too does healthy life expectancy. Also, when I went to A&E with a relative a couple of years ago he was one of the few old people there. Most were families with kids.

Anyway, found there are actually statistics - https://digital.nhs.uk/catalogue/PUB30112 for A&E visits in England. Can't find age of population generally for England but Wikipedia has them for UK.

Age A&E Visits % % of population
0-9 15.14 11.8
10-19 11.37 12.1
20-29 15.55 13.6
30-39 12.29 13.1
40-49 10.73 14.6
50-59 10.07 12.2
60-69 8.14 10.8
70-79 7.78 7.1
80-89 6.76 3.9
90+ 2.16 0.8

Certainly 80+ are over represented but then they are not a large % of the population. 0-9 and 20-29 (booze?) seem to be much more to do with the pressures on A&E.

PS Does CUK do tables or tabs??

[scooterscot]

Why is the length of stay left out?

[vetran]

Why is the length of stay left out?

They don't want people trying to beat your record on the mental ward?

[vetran]

this was actually quite interesting.

10 charts that show why the NHS is in trouble - BBC News

Graph 1 makes a mockery of accusations of vicious Tory cuts.


If the cause of the trouble is an ageing population then we are truly fecked unless we make a lot of adjustments.

see graph 4 its risen about 3-4% since 1974, its projected to rise another 15% by 2044.


As this happens every year it seems they have no ability to forecast demand despite it being fairly predictable.So basically the NHS can't find its elbow.

As most long termers are bed blockers they need to set up some emergency social care wards and staff them with 1 nurse & 20 care workers.

[FrontEnder]

Its not the ageing population on its own. Its the treatments that come with the kinds of diseases people who are 50 + tend to get.

I'd imagine that someone who had cancer in the 50s 60s and 70s would generally go to hospital, get diagnosed and then die with little treatment. Perhaps some strong painkillers to make their final days a little easier.

Now you'll have a realistic chance of survival but that is because of massive advances in chemotherapy etc. Which are not cheap.

[NotAllThere]

We are constantly told that the pressures on the NHS are down to an elderly population.
...
Certainly 80+ are over represented but then they are not a large % of the population. 0-9 and 20-29 (booze?) seem to be much more to do with the pressures on A&E.

Pressure on A&E is not the same as pressure on the NHS overall. Older people put pressure on the NHS because as it says in the BBC article

People are living with a growing number of long-term chronic conditions - diabetes, heart disease and dementia. These are more about care than cure - what patients usually need is support. By the age of 65, most people will have at least one of these illnesses. By 75 they will have two.

The average 65-year-old costs the NHS 2.5 times more than the average 30-year-old. An 85-year-old costs more than five times as much.

[NotAllThere]

this was actually quite interesting.

10 charts that show why the NHS is in trouble - BBC News

Graph 1 makes a mockery of accusations of vicious Tory cuts.

Not really. If the NHS forecasts that increasing demand on its services means it needs a budget of an additional £20 Billion* this year, and then it's given a budget of an additional £5 Billion, that's a £15 Billion cut in the budget.

If the cause of the trouble is an ageing population then we are truly fecked unless we make a lot of adjustments.

see graph 4 its risen about 3-4% since 1974, its projected to rise another 15% by 2044.


As this happens every year it seems they have no ability to forecast demand despite it being fairly predictable.So basically the NHS can't find its elbow.

They can forecast demand. They have forecasted demand, and that produces a figure of how much money they need. They present that to the government who then cut it. They can no longer meet the forecasted demand.

Do you see now?

Whether they actually need the extra is another argument, but it's wrong to say that there are no cuts, and it's wrong to say they're unable to forecast. The two things are linked.

* I don't know what the actual figures are.

[BrilloPad]

Old people are wrecking the lives of young people. However young people seem happy to let them.

[northernladyuk]

Why is the length of stay left out?

And discharge destination. And other factors like polypharmacy.

[WTFH]

this was actually quite interesting.

10 charts that show why the NHS is in trouble - BBC News

Graph 1 makes a mockery of accusations of vicious Tory cuts.


If the cause of the trouble is an ageing population then we are truly fecked unless we make a lot of adjustments.

see graph 4 its risen about 3-4% since 1974, its projected to rise another 15% by 2044.

Graph 5 adds the extra info - the older population cost the NHS a lot more. at 65 it's 2.5x a 30 year old, by 85 it's over 5x, lets say that it's 3x for anyone over 60.

So, 25% of A&E admissions (the over 60s) are responsible for 75% of the costs (approx)