• Visitors can check out the Forum FAQ by clicking this link. You have to register before you can post: click the REGISTER link above to proceed. To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below. View our Forum Privacy Policy.
  • Want to receive the latest contracting news and advice straight to your inbox? Sign up to the ContractorUK newsletter here. Every sign up will also be entered into a draw to WIN £100 Amazon vouchers!

stock market crash

Collapse
X
  •  
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Originally posted by CryingSheep View Post
    I agree... if I would need the money in the next year or two I probably would take it all right now. If you wont need it for another 3 or more years, leave it there and maybe get some extra funds to invest when it goes south.
    I don't have any money in the US stock market at the moment and I'll be sitting on the side lines until the end of the next bear market.

    Of course, this 10-year old bull market could go on for another 5 or 10 years but hey ho.
    Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

    Comment


      Originally posted by NotAllThere View Post
      Well, barring a sufficiently large natural (or manmade) disaster. But then the stock market will be the least of your troubles.
      Exactly, if some event would end the economy as we know it, this could stop to be true, but then I guess that even the money under your blanket would worth nothing... so either invest on funds or on an underground shelter full of canned food!
      "The boy who cried Sheep"

      Comment


        Signs of economic downturn.


        Too many houses built in the US


        Monthly Supply of Houses in the United States (MSACSR) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

        Nope

        Market Cap vs GDP

        Buffett Indicator: The percent of total market cap relative to Gross National Product?
        Over the long run, stock market valuation reverts to its mean. A higher current valuation certainly correlates with lower long-term returns in the future. On the other hand, a lower current valuation level correlates with a higher long-term return. The total market valuation is measured by the ratio of total market cap (TMC) to GNP -- the equation representing Warren Buffett's "best single measure". This ratio since 1970 is shown in the second chart to the right. Gurufocus.com calculates and updates this ratio daily. As of 11/13/2019, this ratio is 146.4%.

        We can see that, during the past four decades, the TMC/GNP ratio has varied within a very wide range. The lowest point was about 35% in the previous deep recession of 1982, while the highest point was 148% during the tech bubble in 2000. The market went from extremely undervalued in 1982 to extremely overvalued in 2000.

        Based on these historical valuations, we have divided market valuation into five zones:
        Ratio = Total Market Cap / GDP Valuation
        Ratio < 50% Significantly Undervalued
        50% < Ratio < 75% Modestly Undervalued
        75% < Ratio < 90% Fair Valued
        90% < Ratio < 115% Modestly Overvalued
        Ratio > 115% Significantly Overvalued
        Where are we today (11/13/2019)? Ratio = 146.4%, Significantly Overvalued
        Yes, crash possible.


        Tobin's Q

        https://www.advisorperspectives.com/...october-update



        Crash looks likely


        Historical P/E ratios


        S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends

        Nope, looks okay

        Jobless claims

        4-Week Moving Average of Initial Claims (IC4WSA) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

        Again, looks pretty good.


        So overall, at least from a US crash perspective, seems unlikely overall.

        HTH BIDI

        Comment


          Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
          So overall, at least from a US crash perspective, seems unlikely overall.
          That's one too many overalls for my liking.
          Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

          Comment


            Originally posted by DealorNoDeal View Post
            That's one too many overalls for my liking.
            Overall, I wrote that post too quickly overall...

            Comment


              Originally posted by DealorNoDeal View Post
              That's one too many overalls for my liking.
              Overall, before every crash, there's a peak. Things are going up, so a crash will happen. Eventually. Maybe...
              Down with racism. Long live miscegenation!

              Comment


                Originally posted by NotAllThere View Post
                Overall, before every crash, there's a peak. Things are going up, so a crash will happen. Eventually. Maybe...
                Said scooty every week for the past 3 years.
                'CUK forum personality of 2011 - Winner - Yes really!!!!

                Comment


                  Thanks DP, those valuation links are very interesting.

                  Maybe the historical means of "Market Cap to GDP" and "Tobin Q" no longer apply? The last 20-odd years certainly look very different to the prior 100 years.

                  Perhaps there's a new normal?
                  Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by DealorNoDeal View Post
                    Thanks DP, those valuation links are very interesting.

                    Maybe the historical means of "Market Cap to GDP" and "Tobin Q" no longer apply? The last 20-odd years certainly look very different to the prior 100 years.

                    Perhaps there's a new normal?
                    This time it's different™

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post

                      Historical P/E ratios


                      S&P 500 PE Ratio - 90 Year Historical Chart | MacroTrends

                      Nope, looks okay
                      BTW, the Shiller P/E might be a better measure, and that doesn't look quite so benign.

                      Shiller P/E Ratio: Where Are We with Market Valuations?

                      "Why Is the Regular P/E Ratio Deceiving?"
                      Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

                      Comment

                      Working...
                      X