stock market crash

[GhostofTarbera]

Not offended - polite disagreement always welcomed.

Weighing what is possible against what is probable is like counting cards at the poker table, only I get to see everyone's hand using the charts.

I opened the Put at the same time the 2nd to last candle got printed at the start of July on this 3-month chart below. It was one of a few indicators I used, the Mrs and I discussed and went with it. The blue line is the 12 year moving average, you close under here.... you then automatically know the next couple of years are going to be absolutely awful. Does not matter the market, gold (middle chart) Vodefone (bottom chart) by way of example.

When the FTSE closed under that 12-year moving average I knew something was proper up. The difficult part of this is knowing when to open, it is by no means easy - we're cool until November before it gets irritating.







Here it is on Gold





Here is Vodafone, closing under the 12-year

You count cards in blackjack not poker


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[Whorty]

You count cards in blackjack not poker


Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

Only after his Mom takes his mittens off

[DealorNoDeal]

Not offended - polite disagreement always welcomed.

Weighing what is possible against what is probable is like counting cards at the poker table, only I get to see everyone's hand using the charts.

I opened the Put at the same time the 2nd to last candle got printed at the start of July on this 3-month chart below. It was one of a few indicators I used, the Mrs and I discussed and went with it. The blue line is the 12 year moving average, you close under here.... you then automatically know the next couple of years are going to be absolutely awful. Does not matter the market, gold (middle chart) Vodefone (bottom chart) by way of example.

When the FTSE closed under that 12-year moving average I knew something was proper up. The difficult part of this is knowing when to open, it is by no means easy - we're cool until November before it gets irritating.

You don't have to say if you don't want to but when does the option expire? I'm guessing the strike price is below the current level of the FTSE, and the FTSE would have to fall quite a way for you to break even (get the $250k back).

What are you going to do if we get into October and the FTSE isn't falling enough?

If you can afford to write off the $250k then that's ok.

On the other hand, if it will really hurt, I'd seriously think about an exit plan. I know, from personal experience, that riding something all the way to the bottom can have a devastating emotional impact.

[scooterscot]

Can afford to write it off - but it'll shake my confidence no doubt after a couple of years of study. Lost, on paper, around $1.2m in the Bitcoin bubble - riding that bubble all the way to the bottom was a life lesson and then some. Since then have studied bubbles, market cycles, chart analysis (so much of which was transferable from my engineering world).

To answer your question, I remain convinced on the outcome and may extend the option towards the year end rather than letting the option expire.

[_V_]

Can afford to write it off - but it'll shake my confidence no doubt after a couple of years of study. Lost, on paper, around $1.2m in the Bitcoin bubble - riding that bubble all the way to the bottom was a life lesson and then some. Since then have studied bubbles, market cycles, chart analysis (so much of which was transferable from my engineering world).

To answer your question, I remain convinced on the outcome and may extend the option towards the year end rather than letting the option expire.

This is why technical people make terrible traders.

[scooterscot]

This is why technical people make terrible traders.

Please elaborate....

PS: I'm not a trader! A trader is someone who is probably executing many trades per week - that's really not me. Lucky if I do one a quarter.

[jamesbrown]

This is why technical people make terrible traders.

I wouldn't really describe scootie as a technical person.

[DealorNoDeal]

Can afford to write it off - but it'll shake my confidence no doubt after a couple of years of study. Lost, on paper, around $1.2m in the Bitcoin bubble - riding that bubble all the way to the bottom was a life lesson and then some. Since then have studied bubbles, market cycles, chart analysis (so much of which was transferable from my engineering world).

To answer your question, I remain convinced on the outcome and may extend the option towards the year end rather than letting the option expire.

It's a little comforting to know I'm not the only one. I fell for the precious metal hype after the financial crisis, and stupidly held all the way down. Ended up with a 90% drawdown. It's recovered a bit in the past couple of months. I'll continue holding because it feels like the start of a new bull market but I ain't got much left to lose if I'm wrong.

Be careful you don't make yourself ill like I did.

[scooterscot]

It's a little comforting to know I'm not the only one. I fell for the precious metal hype after the financial crisis, and stupidly held all the way down. Ended up with a 90% drawdown. It's recovered a bit in the past couple of months. I'll continue holding because it feels like the start of a new bull market but I ain't got much left to lose if I'm wrong.

Be careful you don't make yourself ill like I did.

We're peak precious metals hype right now.

I've no doubt we'll see Gold at $5k an ounce but not before a massive pullback as deflation hits. Of course many gold bugs might argue try getting your hands on the physical during deflation, they may well be right.

Personally we're dumping profits into Euros for the macro period ahead.

[Whorty]

It's a little comforting to know I'm not the only one. I fell for the precious metal hype after the financial crisis, and stupidly held all the way down. Ended up with a 90% drawdown. It's recovered a bit in the past couple of months. I'll continue holding because it feels like the start of a new bull market but I ain't got much left to lose if I'm wrong.

Be careful you don't make yourself ill like I did.

Unfortunately Scooty is too arrogant and over confident in his own abilities - he won't stop until he has bombed. He's best ignored - the more people respond to him, the more important he feels.