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stock market crash

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    Originally posted by DealorNoDeal View Post
    I know a guy, who lost money trading and even had to sell his house, who is doing exactly that..
    Someone without a strategy.
    "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience". Mark Twain

    Comment


      Here's a different analysis

      Gold is priced in dollars, what are dollars? How scarce are dollar now and in the near future?

      Here's the M1 money supply.

      M1 Money Stock (M1) | FRED | St. Louis Fed


      Gold prices have been on a bull market since 2018 (the 5 years before that it was mostly range bound).

      Here's an article at the start of this year (pre USA caring about Covid-19), talking about gold being overbought, they still expect $1300/oz

      Gold rises to highest since mid-2018 on global growth woes

      Now we are now at over $1900/oz

      Would I start buying gold now or increasing my position in it?

      No I wouldn't. The price is well above the production costs, the price of all the recent emergency money printing is already priced in.
      First Law of Contracting: Only the strong survive

      Comment


        What would be your argument then? I see your links.. are you saying US money supply is inherent to the price of gold? What about all the other currencies of the world?

        Be careful not to a News article in any part of ones analysis.

        I'd argue gold has been in a bull market since 2000.
        "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience". Mark Twain

        Comment


          Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
          What would be your argument then? I see your links.. are you saying US money supply is inherent to the price of gold? What about all the other currencies of the world?

          Be careful not to a News article in any part of ones analysis.

          I'd argue gold has been in a bull market since 2000.
          I don't argue, I make my own analysis, decide entry points, monitor my decisions and act accordingly.

          I'm not here to defend my views, nor give advice, nor promote myself as some kind of guru.

          My only point is that gold has many drivers of price, price is in USD. What happens to USD affects the price of gold.

          DYOR
          First Law of Contracting: Only the strong survive

          Comment


            Originally posted by _V_ View Post
            I don't argue, I make my own analysis, decide entry points, monitor my decisions and act accordingly.

            I'm not here to defend my views, nor give advice, nor promote myself as some kind of guru.

            My only point is that gold has many drivers of price, price is in USD. What happens to USD affects the price of gold.

            DYOR
            Likewise. Usually this is bestowed upon you by others.

            Agree, gold price action has many drives, by far the biggest at this moment in time is the narrative there is nothing more valuable to protect your wealth, not even skilled labour. Extraordinary times.
            "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience". Mark Twain

            Comment


              Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
              I'd argue gold has been in a bull market since 2000.
              I'd argue gold was in a bull market 2000-2011, and then in a bear market until 2018, and is now in a new bull market.

              But whatever.
              Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

              Comment


                Of course technically this is true. Entered a technical bear market around 2011. However there was no re-test of the mean of the previous bull market. Throughout Gold's history the mean was always tested, now we're further away from it than ever.
                "Never argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience". Mark Twain

                Comment


                  Originally posted by scooterscot View Post
                  Of course technically this is true. Entered a technical bear market around 2011. However there was no re-test of the mean of the previous bull market. Throughout Gold's history the mean was always tested, now we're further away from it than ever.
                  So, technically, is gold now in a bull market?
                  Scoots still says that Apr 2020 didn't mark the start of a new stock bull market.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Whorty View Post
                    Hmmm, you really don't like it when someone has a different view to you do you, or they make money on something you didn't make anything on?

                    For the record, this isn't "Whorty says so", this is what is happening. If you can't or don't want to see it too then fine. Not my problem.
                    Oh, the ironing!
                    Old Greg - In search of acceptance since Mar 2007. Hoping each leap will be his last.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Zigenare View Post
                      Oh, the ironing!
                      When that view is racist, then yes you're correct. Nothing ironic about that fella.

                      Edit: loving how BR14 likes all your posts Says as much about him as it does about you.
                      Last edited by Whorty; 12 October 2020, 08:26.
                      I am what I drink, and I'm a bitter man

                      Comment

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