Economy Economy
Page 1 of 3 123 LastLast
Posts 1 to 10 of 30

Thread: Economy

  1. #1

    More time posting than coding

    rogerfederer has more data than eek


    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    247

    Default Economy

    It seems that the nCov19 virus spread and economic impact hasn't been priced in to financial markets to the full extent it should be.

    Not the black swan event, certainly, but if something else goes south unexpectedly in the next year I think we're looking at a major financial crash. With interest rates so low it seems a bad time to make any big financial decisions, such as moving house within the same country.

    Has anybody considered moving more savings/investments offshore in a non-UK entity/bank? I've completed this before but it seems there is far more paperwork now than ever before for new transfers. A few contractors here appear to be mobile, including those residing in Germany, Scandinavia and Australia from what I've read over the last year. In which country do you base your investments and savings?

    With the current political lot in power it doesn't bode well for the next crash. P/E (profits to earnings) ratios are also sky high and with the Chinese market hit due to the new coronavirus it seems wise to withdraw money from shares now. I see no reason why share prices are as high as they are, the profitability longer term simply cannot be there. All time stock market highs given the current issues across the world that span countries simply isn't viable for more than a couple of months.

  2. #2

    Double Godlike!

    BR14 is always on top

    BR14's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2017
    Location
    Under your kitchen sink
    Posts
    10,137

    Default

    not really, no
    Entropy is NOT what it used to be.
    Inertia, however........................

  3. #3

    Ducklike

    Platypus is NOT a disguised employee

    Platypus's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    In the pub
    Posts
    9,086

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rogerfederer View Post
    I see no reason why share prices are as high as they are.
    In the US at least, I thought it was still "The Trump Effect" where one assumes he'll do all he can to keep shares on the rise at least until he wins the election in November.

  4. #4

    Contractor Among Contractors

    NigelJK is NOT a disguised employee


    Join Date
    Jun 2013
    Posts
    1,619

    Default

    Worth remembering this virus is about 1/10th the strength of normal seasonal flu

  5. #5

    Double Godlike!

    original PM is a fount of knowledge

    original PM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cheshire
    Posts
    12,780

    Default


  6. #6

    More time posting than coding

    rogerfederer has more data than eek


    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    247

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by original PM View Post
    Misinformation.

    There are indeed protests in China and have been for many years. They are suppressed and very difficult to report on due to it being easy to limit VPN/TOR traffic from known dissidents, so no twitter or outside access.

    Protests in the last year have been lesser in number and size than in previous years, for whatever reason.

  7. #7

    More time posting than coding

    rogerfederer has more data than eek


    Join Date
    May 2018
    Posts
    247

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by NigelJK View Post
    Worth remembering this virus is about 1/10th the strength of normal seasonal flu
    The incubation period and need for people to take time off will affect the economy. Normal colds, illnesses and flu may be mistaken for this and people will be encouraged to stay at home and rest rather than just work from home.

    I can see the supply chain economic impact spreading to the services sector and dramatically affecting the revenues of companies.

    As much as the Republicans under Trump wish to keep the stock market high to achieve re-election I suspect there's only so much that can be done to disguise the poor state of some companies. Accounting tricks are the order of the day for many companies. Tempted to withdraw all shares/index funds, even from the SIPP, as pouring money in before April 6th seems stupid if it's just directly invested in a market that is clearly close to its peak.

    For those in doubt, via any FTSE graph for the last near 40 years and it doesn't seem credible that the current obfuscation to achieve high values can continue forever when a highly contagious illness could infect many in the UK and USA. We rarely get flu if exposed to it as our past illnesses help prevent it taking hold, but with nCov19 it seems that exposed to it will either become a carrier or unwell due to lack of exposure to general coronaviruses.

  8. #8

    Double Godlike!

    original PM is a fount of knowledge

    original PM's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cheshire
    Posts
    12,780

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by rogerfederer View Post
    Misinformation.

    There are indeed protests in China and have been for many years. They are suppressed and very difficult to report on due to it being easy to limit VPN/TOR traffic from known dissidents, so no twitter or outside access.

    Protests in the last year have been lesser in number and size than in previous years, for whatever reason.
    Indeed - misinformation.

    Who gains the most?

  9. #9

    Nervous Newbie

    rossb2 has no reputation


    Join Date
    Feb 2017
    Posts
    15

    Default

    @rogerfederer if you are concerned about financial safety, buy gold. There are plenty of companies in London running gold vaults. I don’t see how using a foreign bank makes you safer?

  10. #10

    My post count is Majestic

    AtW is a fount of knowledge

    AtW's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Posts
    52,633

    Default

    Sockie alert!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •