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coronavirus 1 in 50 will die

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    #91
    Originally posted by GhostofTarbera View Post
    Got a friend who is a Virologists who advises the government, basically we are fecked 1-2 million people will die from coronavirus in the UK in the next 2 years (2% death rate), government knows this but all hush hush, will peak on all known simulations at Xmas this yeAr

    No one will be commuting after April (without face masks) with widespread working from home for several months - projects cancelled contractors laid off - food shortages, stock markets crashed

    I told her bollocks, but she said you need to get it now and survive otherwise the future strains will have a higher mortally rate

    Happy days



    Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum
    And so it came to pass

    Interesting people views 4 weeks ago till now


    Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

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      #92
      Originally posted by GhostofTarbera View Post
      And so it came to pass

      Interesting people views 4 weeks ago till now


      Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum
      You are like suity walking round after WW3 with a t-shirt saying "I told you so"....

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        #93
        Originally posted by GhostofTarbera View Post
        And so it came to pass

        Interesting people views 4 weeks ago till now
        Go on then, I'll bite

        Let's break down what you said, and compare to what we knew then, and what we know now.

        basically we are fecked 1-2 million people will die from coronavirus in the UK in the next 2 years
        Even the 'worst case' scenerio model, which everyone likes to quote, only predicts 1/2 million deaths in the UK. And this is based on doing nothing. Not sure whether you've noticed, but we've been far from 'doing nothing' now for weeks?

        This model is also based on an R of 2.4, which is probably too high. Even when they modeled the expected spread on the Princess thingy cruise ship they only used an R of 2.28, and this was for an environment where there would be a captive population where isolation and distancing was difficult.

        We may not be at the peak of infection yet, and hence deaths, and there may well be a second peak this coming winter, but there is no evidence that we will be anywhere near 500,000 let alone 1-2 million deaths.

        (2% death rate)
        Nope. Again, even worse case scenario only has this at between 0.5 and 1% Currently the UK is towards this lower figure, assuming that we are only testing those 10% who are ill enough to require hospital treatment, and hence 90% of cases are unreported.

        government knows this but all hush hush, will peak on all known simulations at Xmas this year
        As much as I dislike BoJo and his cronies, it's a bit hard for them to keep anything hush-hush given we can see for ourselves what is/was happening in China etc.

        As for simulations peaking in Dec, what I've seen is 2 peaks ... one soon, with a trough over the summer, then (probably) a second spread of the virus this winter. This is all dependent upon what voluntary and/or forced measures our and other governments place on its citizens.

        No one will be commuting after April (without face masks) with widespread working from home for several months - projects cancelled contractors laid off - food shortages, stock markets crashed
        Isn't that just simply looking at the news, and what was happening at the time in China, HK etc and saying, this will happen to us about April time. You don't need to be a virologist to make that call.

        I told her bollocks, but she said you need to get it now and survive
        Not really the case. If you're generally a healthy person, of the type of 85% who will get a mild version of this, then it makes little difference when you get it as you won't need NHS help (unless you're SAS and seeking attention).

        For those who require NHS help, the triage will be similar whether you get it now or later - if you're too ill to be saved, you will die either way. If you are considered strong enough to survive, you will get the best care the NHS can give.

        It's messages like this, telling people to 'go get it now, you'd be better off that way' that is putting people at risk and encouraging the spread of the virus.

        otherwise the future strains will have a higher mortally rate
        No evidence of this. In fact, the evidence from other coronaviruses is that, as they mutate, the strain becomes less virulent and hence less dangerous. Now, we don't now if this corona virus will mutant at all, or if it does if it will follow the path of previous viruses (SARS, MERS etc) but, today, there is no evidence to back up what you have said.

        The main message should be, as it has been for a couple of months now .... wash your hands, don't sneeze into hands and touch surfaces, don't put your hands near eyes/mouth without washing first, if you're an at risk group then practice some social distancing. To be fair though, with the exception of the social distancing, we should be doing all the others every day whether there is a virus about or not!!

        Glad to be of help
        Last edited by Whorty; 24 March 2020, 09:34.
        I am what I drink, and I'm a bitter man

        Comment


          #94
          Originally posted by Zigenare View Post
          Shame, I was hoping you'd died in a pool of your own snot.

          Oh well, there's always next weekend.

          why wait for the weekend? he is probably at home wondering where his next sock is coming from!
          Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.

          Comment


            #95
            Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post
            You are like suity walking round after WW3 with a t-shirt saying "I told you so"....
            Or Pooper with a T shirt that says - 'Called it' because he said something to his mate in back in Year 6
            'CUK forum personality of 2011 - Winner - Yes really!!!!

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              #96
              I was looking at those pictures of the tube and the only time I am that close to someone by choice is when I am doing the wife.

              Can I go play golf now?

              Comment


                #97

                Comment


                  #98
                  Originally posted by GhostofTarbera View Post
                  And so it came to pass

                  Interesting people views 4 weeks ago till now


                  Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

                  Ill give it to you, you did say.
                  What happens in General, stays in General.
                  You know what they say about assumptions!

                  Comment


                    #99
                    Although it won’t be 1 in 50. A friend of mine did warn similar, told me to liquidate everything at a similar time.

                    I didn’t listen and am currently stuck 6000 miles away from my family and worth 70% of what I was 6 weeks ago.
                    https://uk.linkedin.com/in/andyhallett

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Andy Hallett View Post
                      I didn’t listen and am currently stuck 6000 miles away from my family and worth 70% of what I was 6 weeks ago.
                      So, as you're an agent, still zero?
                      Down with racism. Long live miscegenation!

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