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    #11
    Originally posted by NotAllThere View Post
    The models are informed by the real time scenarios in Spain, France and Italy. The idea is to predict what is likely to happen in a long period. Not what will happen in 3 weeks time. Now, stop being so hysterical. Have a cup of tea and a biscuit. Then go and wash your hands.
    I'm not being hysterical, i just can't understand why go against what everyone else is saying ie. close everything down asap. Italy is or was roughly 3 weeks ahead and they had a really relaxed approach at the start, look where they are now. Besides there's loads of models each with it's own limitations and errors, I understand the need to look further into the future, but I think it's more important to act really quick and take radical steps asap.

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      #12
      Originally posted by SueEllen View Post
      The documentary Contagion is still on iPlayer. Worth a watch as it's about mathematical modelling of infectious respiratory diseases e.g. flu.

      They estimated just under 900,000 deaths if nothing was done. They were using a model where each person comes into contact with 1.8 others.

      Watch out, you'll get into all sorts of trouble with the befuddled for talking about a program on the BBC. It's obviously wrong, biased and done by "scientists" who are not as smart as Farage, Cummings, etc.
      …Maybe we ain’t that young anymore

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        #13
        Originally posted by WTFH View Post
        Watch out, you'll get into all sorts of trouble with the befuddled for talking about a program on the BBC. It's obviously wrong, biased and done by "scientists" who are not as smart as Farage, Cummings, etc.
        This fancy BBC math is clearly elitist

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          #14
          Originally posted by dsc View Post
          I'm not being hysterical, i just can't understand why go against what everyone else is saying ie. close everything down asap. Italy is or was roughly 3 weeks ahead and they had a really relaxed approach at the start, look where they are now. Besides there's loads of models each with it's own limitations and errors, I understand the need to look further into the future, but I think it's more important to act really quick and take radical steps asap.
          I don't disagree with the need to shut down. But you are being a bit hysterical about it all.
          Down with racism. Long live miscegenation!

          Comment


            #15
            Originally posted by BrilloPad View Post
            Have house prices gone down yet?
            No but house owners are going down fast

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              #16
              It kills mostly the old and the sick, you think the govt wants to close down something that solves the pension and health crisis in a matter of months?

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                #17
                Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post
                It kills mostly the old and the sick, you think the govt wants to close down something that solves the pension and health crisis in a matter of months?
                Exactly what I said to my sister last night. It's the perfect way to cull the population. I would even go so far as to say the whole thing has been no accident.
                If you don't have anything nice to say, say it sarcastically

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                  #18
                  Have I read this paper correctly in that whatever we do now we are looking at a minimum of 250,000 deaths?


                  Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum
                  http://www.cih.org/news-article/disp...housing_market

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                    #19
                    Originally posted by KinooOrKinog View Post
                    Exactly what I said to my sister last night. It's the perfect way to cull the population. I would even go so far as to say the whole thing has been no accident.
                    If you did go that far I would say that you’re an idiot.
                    "I can put any old tat in my sig, put quotes around it and attribute to someone of whom I've heard, to make it sound true."
                    - Voltaire/Benjamin Franklin/Anne Frank...

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                      #20
                      Originally posted by PurpleGorilla View Post
                      Have I read this paper correctly in that whatever we do now we are looking at a minimum of 250,000 deaths?


                      Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum
                      For feck’s sake, look at the figures and do the math.

                      UK population- approx. 70 million.

                      Johnson et. al talking about Herd immunity of 60% - 42 million infected.

                      Of those 15% will be serious requiring medical intervention - 6.2 million.

                      Number of UK ICU beds per 100,000 - 6.6 (Germany has 29 and a lower death rate, quelle surprise...).

                      As a historical point, the UK death rate from Spanish flu was 0.5%. Using the potential infection rate above, that comes to...

                      210,000 (or more depending on that infection rate).

                      Thanks to An Engineer for setting this out for me - maths is what you need in these times.
                      "I can put any old tat in my sig, put quotes around it and attribute to someone of whom I've heard, to make it sound true."
                      - Voltaire/Benjamin Franklin/Anne Frank...

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