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  1. #21

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    Quote Originally Posted by cojak View Post
    For feck’s sake, look at the figures and do the math.

    UK population- approx. 70 million.

    Johnson et. al talking about Herd immunity of 60% - 42 million infected.

    Of those 15% will be serious requiring medical intervention - 6.2 million.

    Number of UK ICU beds per 100,000 - 6.6 (Germany has 29 and a lower death rate, quelle surprise...).

    As a historical point, the UK death rate from Spanish flu was 0.5%. Using the potential infection rate above, that comes to...

    210,000 (or more depending on that infection rate).

    Thanks to An Engineer for setting this out for me - maths is what you need in these times.

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  2. #22

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    Quote Originally Posted by cojak View Post
    If you did go that far I would say that you’re an idiot.
    You're entitled to your opinion I suppose, but I question everything & I'm definitely not an idiot.
    >30 years ago certain individuals were shut down when they raised concerns about an organised paedophile ring within politics, the BBC & the royal family & look how that turned out.
    I believe that most of what's going on at world leader level is ultimately designed to control the population. If you don't believe we're being controlled then probably best you live in blissful ignorance.
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  3. #23

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  4. #24

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    Quote Originally Posted by cojak View Post
    For feck’s sake, look at the figures and do the math.

    UK population- approx. 70 million.

    Johnson et. al talking about Herd immunity of 60% - 42 million infected.

    Of those 15% will be serious requiring medical intervention - 6.2 million.

    Number of UK ICU beds per 100,000 - 6.6 (Germany has 29 and a lower death rate, quelle surprise...).

    As a historical point, the UK death rate from Spanish flu was 0.5%. Using the potential infection rate above, that comes to...

    210,000 (or more depending on that infection rate).

    Thanks to An Engineer for setting this out for me - maths is what you need in these times.
    The current global death rate is 3.9%. UK rate to yesterday is 3.6%. The global rate has been around 3.6% for the last 2 weeks.
    Now, we can argue the accuracy of actual statistics compared with waffle from de Pfeffel.
    Here's what we don't know:
    1. How many are currently infected, but not tested (this would reduce the %)
    2. How many have died untested (this would increase the %)

    Now, some will argue that various countries are not reliable in their reporting. If the UK % is close to the global average, then that seems to indicate either we are fudging our data to match the average, or it's close to right.
    Until someone can bring out data that can be proven to be more accurate, then that's the best we have.
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  5. #25

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    Quote Originally Posted by KinooOrKinog View Post
    You're entitled to your opinion I suppose, but I question everything & I'm definitely not an idiot.
    >30 years ago certain individuals were shut down when they raised concerns about an organised paedophile ring within politics, the BBC & the royal family & look how that turned out.
    I believe that most of what's going on at world leader level is ultimately designed to control the population. If you don't believe we're being controlled then probably best you live in blissful ignorance.
    I have been reading what the Italian doctors say on the web, it is like reading war time diaries of units in combat.

  6. #26

    Prof Cunning @ Oxford Uni

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    I suspect tomorrow's results for the UK will be 480-500 new cases.
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  7. #27

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    Quote Originally Posted by WTFH View Post
    The current global death rate is 3.9%. UK rate to yesterday is 3.6%. The global rate has been around 3.6% for the last 2 weeks.
    Now, we can argue the accuracy of actual statistics compared with waffle from de Pfeffel.
    Here's what we don't know:
    1. How many are currently infected, but not tested (this would reduce the %)
    2. How many have died untested (this would increase the %)

    Now, some will argue that various countries are not reliable in their reporting. If the UK % is close to the global average, then that seems to indicate either we are fudging our data to match the average, or it's close to right.
    Until someone can bring out data that can be proven to be more accurate, then that's the best we have.
    60-80 % of the UK population catching it and a 3.6% death rate.

    Millions will die!


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  8. #28

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    Quote Originally Posted by PurpleGorilla View Post
    60-80 % of the UK population catching it and a 3.6% death rate.

    Millions will die!
    https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ml#post2740910
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  9. #29

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    Most who have died have had significant underlying illnesses. How many of these would have died anyway within the last few weeks? Did the virus really kill them, or were they already about to cark it?

    As already said too, there will be multitudes who have the virus that have little to no symptoms and won't be caught in the stats. Thus the true death rate will be much lower than the 'official' rate.

    I'm actually more concerned for the actions of the morons, stripping supermarket shelves and leaving nothing for those who only get to the shops once a week. These morons will do more harm to the vulnerable than the virus would have done had we all been more selfless.

    But, humans are a selfish species; we're only concerned with ourselves and fook the rest
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  10. #30

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    Quote Originally Posted by DimPrawn View Post
    It kills mostly the old and the sick, you think the govt wants to close down something that solves the pension and health crisis in a matter of months?
    It kills mostly cretinous Tory voters.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bean
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