Coronavirus vs Natural Deaths Coronavirus vs Natural Deaths
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    Default Coronavirus vs Natural Deaths

    Interesting piece of commentary on the Beeb Linky

    It backs up some of the arguments that the models predicting such a high number of deaths in the UK are potentially over-egged, and are missing some key factors. It notes that officially, we have 8000 deaths in the UK, each year, directly attributable to Flu. It also notes that of those who will die now, many will have died anyway and whilst the dead may have the virus in their system, we do not know if they died of the virus or of their underlying illness.

    Just goes to show that not even the experts know the answer, and it is all very grey, and not as black and white as some argue. I don't think anyone is arguing that some people will definitely die earlier than their time, but many deaths that are attributed to the virus will have been people who would die anyway this year (although their deaths may be brought forward). It goes back to the risk/reward, or payoff, for doing nothing to doing the extreme that we (and other countries) are doing now.

    One interesting figure in the article, and I suppose if you step back and think about it, it shouldn't be that surprising, is we have 500,000 to 600,000 deaths in the UK every year anyway.

    Hindsight will tell us how well our actions were, for now we all have our own biased view I guess.

    It's a short article, but just a few quotes :

    The figures for coronavirus are eye-watering. But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.
    Many would be within this "normal" number of expected deaths. In short, they would have died anyway.

    It was a point conceded by Sir Patrick at a press conference on Thursday when he said there would be "some overlap" between coronavirus deaths and expected deaths - he just did not know how much of an overlap.
    In contrast, the figure he gave for flu deaths to MPs - 8,000 - is different. It is actually the number of deaths over and above what you would expect to happen in any given year.
    ut there is certainly evidence to suggest the modellers have underestimated the ability of the NHS to increase intensive care capacity.
    What else has not been done is a proper assessment of the economic and social costs of the measures taken, which themselves will put lives and health at risk.
    we will need much greater intelligence on just how many lives are truly being saved, and compare that to the wider cost to society, so the government and the public can weigh up the best course of action
    Last edited by Whorty; 21st March 2020 at 08:00.
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    ffs stop spreading the nonsense BBC publishes to keep the numpties in control.
    It will be a blood bath next week.

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    Generally, people who die of flu have chosen not to be vaccinated. I have have known a few people in their early 20s who died of flu.

    Many people confuse flu with a cold, it is not the same.

    I get vaccinated every year but I have no choice with Convid-19.

    There will be flu deaths in addition to Convid-19 deaths.
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    Quote Originally Posted by GigiBronz View Post
    ffs stop spreading the nonsense BBC publishes to keep the numpties in control.
    It will be a blood bath next week.
    Indeed look at us already


    Coronavirus: Major London hospital declares 'critical incident' as it runs out of beds - Mirror Online




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    Quote Originally Posted by Whorty View Post
    Interesting piece of commentary on the Beeb Linky

    It backs up some of the arguments that the models predicting such a high number of deaths in the UK are potentially over-egged, and are missing some key factors. It notes that officially, we have 8000 deaths in the UK, each year, directly attributable to Flu. It also notes that of those who will die now, many will have died anyway and whilst the dead may have the virus in their system, we do not know if they died of the virus or of their underlying illness.

    Just goes to show that not even the experts know the answer, and it is all very grey, and not as black and white as some argue. I don't think anyone is arguing that some people will definitely die earlier than their time, but many deaths that are attributed to the virus will have been people who would die anyway this year (although their deaths may be brought forward). It goes back to the risk/reward, or payoff, for doing nothing to doing the extreme that we (and other countries) are doing now.

    One interesting figure in the article, and I suppose if you step back and think about it, it shouldn't be that surprising, is we have 500,000 to 600,000 deaths in the UK every year anyway.

    Hindsight will tell us how well our actions were, for now we all have our own biased view I guess.

    It's a short article, but just a few quotes :

    Irrelevant - what is relevant is the NHS about to collapse (as per Italy) and the deaths becoming blindingly obvious (as per Italy).


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    OP has a point that keeps being ignored by the thick wazzocks in the meeja who just want to publish scary headlines.

    It still appears that CoVID 19 is pushing the ones with underlying respiratory or medical conditions over to flatline. It's not really age related, just how badly damaged your immune system is. So a risk factor might be if you abuse steroids for instance because they really cock up the immune system.

    It was also said that not unlike HIV which is an antibody test, not the actual condition, an antibody test relevant to C19 that would only require a drop of blood would tell us how many have already contracted C19 and recovered. If you have the antibodies your immune system has already fought and won the bug. So that's an easier option, they must know by now what form these antibodies take and an antibody test is far easier than a cure.
    So maybe they should go that way?

    Kind of suspect once the hysterical face bollocks crowd have posted all the crap they can think of about this virus the actual deaths that are absolutely down to C19 killing reasonably healthy people will be quite a small number. Won't suite the panic merchants but it will be a fact.

    As for the modelling, I recall an FLA a lecturer used back in the 1980's when I first started programing in basic. GIGO.

    As for the state of the NHS, well you can blame the Cons for that, they are very cleverly trying everything they can to shield a very wounded service but it's their policies that have brought the NHS to where it is now. If the NHS collapses it's on BoJo's watch.
    Last edited by Lost It; 21st March 2020 at 08:32.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Paddy View Post
    Generally, people who die of flu have chosen not to be vaccinated. I have have known a few people in their early 20s who died of flu.
    Are they in the group the NHS advises to be vaccinated?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lost It View Post
    OP has a point that keeps being ignored by the thick wazzocks in the meeja who just want to publish scary headlines.

    It still appears that CoVID 19 is pushing the ones with underlying respiratory or medical conditions over to flatline. It's not really age related, just how badly damaged your immune system is. So a risk factor might be if you abuse steroids for instance because they really cock up the immune system.

    It was also said that not unlike HIV which is an antibody test, not the actual condition, an antibody test relevant to C19 that would only require a drop of blood would tell us how many have already contracted C19 and recovered. If you have the antibodies your immune system has already fought and won the bug. So that's an easier option, they must know by now what form these antibodies take and an antibody test is far easier than a cure.
    So maybe they should go that way?

    Kind of suspect once the hysterical face bollocks crowd have posted all the crap they can think of about this virus the actual deaths that are absolutely down to C19 killing reasonably healthy people will be quite a small number. Won't suite the panic merchants but it will be a fact.

    As for the modelling, I recall an FLA a lecturer used back in the 1980's when I first started programing in basic. GIGO.

    As for the state of the NHS, well you can blame the Cons for that, they are very cleverly trying everything they can to shield a very wounded service but it's their policies that have brought the NHS to where it is now. If the NHS collapses it's on BoJo's watch.
    Are you totally blind to what is happening in Italy?


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    Quote Originally Posted by GigiBronz View Post
    ffs stop spreading the nonsense BBC publishes to keep the numpties in control.
    It will be a blood bath next week.
    Do grow up and stop panicking - it helps no one, certainly not yourself. Idiot.

    Why not pull apart some of the figures in the article if you don't agree with them, and provide proof (not gossip) that they are wrong? This is the experts saying this, not armchair 'medic professionals' like you
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