"Namely that, faced with the protestations of the London bubble, the PM has jettisoned the only sensible strategy for dealing with the biggest global crisis since the Second World War. To put lockdown in the most cynical terms, the Government has decided to trash the economy rather than expose itself to political criticism. Unless Mr Johnson U-turns, the fallout could be cataclysmic.
Just a couple of weeks ago, the signs that our new Government would not resort to the same clunky damage control as other countries were reasonable. While Italy shooed people into their homes to stem all infections, the UK’s approach seemed more nuanced – getting the most vulnerable to self-isolate, while allowing lower risk people to get infected on a scale that wouldn’t overwhelm the NHS.
Through this “herd immunity” strategy, a resurgence of the virus after it had seemingly peaked would be avoided. Championed by Dominic Cummings, the approach was creepy, clinical and completely correct.
For a flicker, the Government seemed willing to withstand the paroxysms of its opponents and the shivers of its sympathists to take this long-termist course of action. Yes, it gambled on strong assumptions. But with leadership and clever use of numerical probability scale methods – which incidentally helped a clutch of obscure US superforecasters to actually predict Covid-19 – they may have pulled it off."
The PM was panicked into abandoning a sensible Covid-19 strategy, and has plunged society into crisis
Jesus Fecking Christ
Just a couple of weeks ago, the signs that our new Government would not resort to the same clunky damage control as other countries were reasonable. While Italy shooed people into their homes to stem all infections, the UK’s approach seemed more nuanced – getting the most vulnerable to self-isolate, while allowing lower risk people to get infected on a scale that wouldn’t overwhelm the NHS.
Through this “herd immunity” strategy, a resurgence of the virus after it had seemingly peaked would be avoided. Championed by Dominic Cummings, the approach was creepy, clinical and completely correct.
For a flicker, the Government seemed willing to withstand the paroxysms of its opponents and the shivers of its sympathists to take this long-termist course of action. Yes, it gambled on strong assumptions. But with leadership and clever use of numerical probability scale methods – which incidentally helped a clutch of obscure US superforecasters to actually predict Covid-19 – they may have pulled it off."
The PM was panicked into abandoning a sensible Covid-19 strategy, and has plunged society into crisis
Jesus Fecking Christ
1918 'flu. Philadelphia didn't practice social distancing, St Louis did. 
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