Belgium and UK have the highest COVID case fatality rates (CFR) Belgium and UK have the highest COVID case fatality rates (CFR) - Page 2
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  1. #11

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    Quote Originally Posted by DimPrawn View Post
    Sounds like you need to join the other Lord Haw Haw types and move to Germany.

    It would be better if you third-rate UK types raised your expectations, stopped tugging your forelocks, and insisted on higher standards in the UK
    Hard Brexit now!
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  2. #12

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    Belgium and the UK are highest in the the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. This could simply be because we are not testing as many, only the more serious cases. I would have thought the more meaningful figure is deaths per 100,000 population for which we are well behind Belgium, Spain, Italy and France.

    A major factor here is probably population density, Belgium is one of most densely populated countries in Europe and the UK is significantly more crowded than Germany and France. Even with identical effective measures we would expect Belgium and the UK to have higher rates, it's basic maths. In fact, France has a significantly higher rate, which may indicate they have been less effective at prevention.

    Of course there are delays in these things, Italy is high because it started spreading there first, no saying that the UK could not match or exceed it. Also as you said, the UK is only counting hospital deaths, so the real figure may be quite a bit higher. However, it seems likely we have passed our peak now that we have had controls for a few weeks.

    A lot of uncertainty and we will have to wait and see but I don't think there is, as yet, a firm case for the CUK government bashers.
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  3. #13

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    Gordon Bennet! San Marino - 115.44 Deaths/100k pop. What's going on there?

    Ah Very small population and lots of Italians.
    bloggoth

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  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by xoggoth View Post
    Belgium and the UK are highest in the the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. This could simply be because we are not testing as many, only the more serious cases. I would have thought the more meaningful figure is deaths per 100,000 population for which we are well behind Belgium, Spain, Italy and France.

    A major factor here is probably population density, Belgium is one of most densely populated countries in Europe and the UK is significantly more crowded than Germany and France. Even with identical effective measures we would expect Belgium and the UK to have higher rates, it's basic maths. In fact, France has a significantly higher rate, which may indicate they have been less effective at prevention.

    Of course there are delays in these things, Italy is high because it started spreading there first, no saying that the UK could not match or exceed it. Also as you said, the UK is only counting hospital deaths, so the real figure may be quite a bit higher. However, it seems likely we have passed our peak now that we have had controls for a few weeks.

    A lot of uncertainty and we will have to wait and see but I don't think there is, as yet, a firm case for the CUK government bashers.
    Nursing and care home deaths are the elephant in the room. Not just in the UK.
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    It's now clear that Boris has surrounded himself with useless sycophants who basically haven't clue, and Boris will be out of action for the forseeable future, focusing on his breathing. There seems to be no plan to get out of it. The "blame China" strategy will gain traction. That won't be helpful on the otherside when investment is needed. Britain may have seized back control but the captain has gone AWOL and the ship is rudderless.
    I'm alright Jack

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by xoggoth View Post
    A major factor here is probably population density, Belgium is one of most densely populated countries in Europe and the UK is significantly more crowded than Germany and France. Even with identical effective measures we would expect Belgium and the UK to have higher rates, it's basic maths. In fact, France has a significantly higher rate, which may indicate they have been less effective at prevention.

    .
    No. The reason for the high rates of death in Belgium is that (1) half of all COVID deaths are in care and nursing homes and (2) they are recording those deaths, unlike the Uk.

    Quote Originally Posted by Old Greg View Post
    Nursing and care home deaths are the elephant in the room. Not just in the UK.
    Not in Belgium. They are aware of and recording those deaths and heads are beginning to roll.
    Hard Brexit now!
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  7. #17

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    Andrew Marr had a professor on this morning who give some straight answers

    Everyone should listen

    25mins in ish on iPlayer


    Sent from my iPhone using Contractor UK Forum

  8. #18

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    Quote Originally Posted by xoggoth View Post

    A lot of uncertainty and we will have to wait and see but I don't think there is, as yet, a firm case for the CUK government bashers.
    There is.
    And avoiding the issue merely leads to further decline.
    The other elephant in the room is the rise in excess deaths for all other non-Covid causes as hospitals are re-purposed for Covid.
    On a shoestring budget as the NHS has been for years, these will be higher than in countries which have higher rates pro rata of hospital and ICU beds.
    The data in the Uk is already reflecting this: Covid cases are being coped with but at the expense of everything else.

    Whereas in Belgium which also has a high rate, only half of ICU beds are taken up by Covid patients, reflecting higher capacity.
    In Germany I am told hospitals are empty, their expected surge didn't happen and they have the highest ratio of ICU and hospital beds in Europe.

    2 choices after this all over: (1) hold your politicians to account and demand change or (2) go into typical "musn't grumble" mode.
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  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by sasguru View Post
    No. The reason for the high rates of death in Belgium is that (1) half of all COVID deaths are in care and nursing homes and (2) they are recording those deaths, unlike the Uk.

    Not in Belgium. They are aware of and recording those deaths and heads are beginning to roll.
    Xoggoth is wrong in another way.

    The statistic mentioned has nothing to do with testing, in fact the stats are: number of covid19 deaths per 100000 of the population. The latter 100000 is not tested cases, it's just an easier way of comparing countries without looking at the testing ratio.

    Quote Originally Posted by xoggoth View Post
    Belgium and the UK are highest in the the number of deaths per 100 confirmed cases. This could simply be because we are not testing as many, only the more serious cases. I would have thought the more meaningful figure is deaths per 100,000 population for which we are well behind Belgium, Spain, Italy and France.

    Covid19 positive death cases (excluding care homes in England) per 100000 of the general entire population regardless of testing status (can be extrapolated to the full country size.) This means that it doesn't matter how many people outside of the hospital setting are untested, as those will generally make it to a hospital if they have severe illness and there if dying there will count towards the total number of deaths per 100000 of the general population.

    Scotland is including deaths in which covid19 is mentioned on the death certificate, so the NRS (National Records of Scotland) publication is a good guide to the true number of deaths in Scotland as it includes the crucial parameters from inside and outside of the hospital in which Covid19 is mentioned at all on the death certificate, even if it's not cited as the cause of death; this doesn't involve testing the patient after they've died in a care home or at home, but instead just relying on the GP mentioning Covid19 on the death certificate and then it's included. England aren't doing this and so the number of deaths is artificially low and in essence a false, useless statistic.

    Channel4 news have highlighted that GPs in England are encouraged to avoid writing Covid19 on death certificates and to ease administration and their own use of time are writing "pneumonia" or similar on the death cert; a future scandal in the making.
    Last edited by rogerfederer; 19th April 2020 at 09:21.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by rogerfederer View Post
    Xoggoth is wrong in another way.

    The statistic mentioned has nothing to do with testing, .
    Actually it has.
    The CFR denominator is patients tested positive for Covid.
    Xog has a point that the CFR could be higher if there is low testing or testing only for very ill patients.
    Hence my disclaimer in the first post, that these things will come out in the wash.
    But we can already see that some countries have coped with it better - the biggest mistake in the UK was postponing lockdown when every day mattered.
    Cheltenham, anyone?
    Hard Brexit now!
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