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Herd immunity DOOM

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    Herd immunity DOOM

    Spain’s herd immunity prospects dashed as just 5pc of population has Covid-19 antibodies

    Widespread coronavirus protection impossible to achieve without numerous deaths in susceptible populations

    The final round of a major Spanish study has shown that just 5.2 per cent of people have developed antibodies to Covid-19, far below the numbers needed for herd immunity.

    Spanish scientists said the results – the third and final set of findings from a study of 68,000 people – showed that Spain was a still some way from herd immunity, and any attempts to reach it naturally would "unethical".

    Presenting the results, the director of Spain's National Centre of Epidemiology, Dr Marina Pollán said: “Spain is a long way from reaching so-called herd immunity, and it would be very unethical to expose the population to the coronavirus in an indiscriminate way."

    Spain’s herd immunity prospects dashed as just 5pc of population has Covid-19 antibodies

    And they were very hard hit country

    #2
    Interesting reports coming out that many have natural immunity based on t cell protection not antibody. If that is true we don't test for t cell immune response and it would massively underestimate those who have immunity already

    Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think - WSJ Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think - WSJ
    Make Mercia Great Again!

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by BlueSharp View Post
      Interesting reports coming out that many have natural immunity based on t cell protection not antibody. If that is true we don't test for t cell immune response and it would massively underestimate those who have immunity already

      Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think - WSJ Herd Immunity May Be Closer Than You Think - WSJ
      That's an opinion piece most likely based on the study published in May:
      https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S...674(20)30610-3

      Which was based on a study involving 20 people where they didn't research the background medical conditions of most of them.
      These results were then compared back to tests done in 2015-18 (again, only 20 people over all that time)
      …Maybe we ain’t that young anymore

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        #4
        Wasn't that an expected 'side effect' of lockdown?

        If people don't mingle the virus doesn't spread (good thing) but if no-one catches it they can't develop antibodies to it (bad thing).

        You can't keep people locked up until a vaccine is delivered either. Well you can but there won't be much left of the economy.

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          #5
          The significance of study is that it gives idea about mortality rate associated with the virus - there was a hope that a lot more people had it mild, which might still be true as t-cells is a wildcard, but gambling lives of hundreds of thousands, plus millions getting disability seems stupid given that vaccines are not far away.

          Comment


            #6
            What's your idea of 'not far away'?

            Safety and efficacy tests could take a year or more. Have to work out how many doses are needed to give sufficient protection etc.

            Comment


              #7
              It looks to me like there is a new normal developing, which means there's no rush for a new vaccine. I suspect it will appear next year sometime.
              I'm alright Jack

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                #8
                What ladymucky said. We should have been advised to get within 2 inches of every passing stranger and cough in their faces. This thing would have been over much quicker.
                bloggoth

                If everything isn't black and white, I say, 'Why the hell not?'
                John Wayne (My guru, not to be confused with my beloved prophet Jeremy Clarkson)

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by ladymuck View Post
                  What's your idea of 'not far away'? Safety and efficacy tests could take a year or more. Have to work out how many doses are needed to give sufficient protection etc.
                  9-12 months, efficacy testing is easier when there is big spread, most likely a lot of healthcare workers will get it this fall, but a bigger problem is anti-vaxxers - they can feck up everything.

                  A breakthrough will be therapeutic that works on hard cases of cheap enough to use like ibuprofen when easily available test detects covid, feck knows when that happens - possibly never if it becomes commercially unviable due to good vaccines being made available in 2022-23
                  Last edited by AtW; 7 July 2020, 09:05.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by xoggoth View Post
                    What ladymucky said. We should have been advised to get within 2 inches of every passing stranger and cough in their faces. This thing would have been over much quicker.
                    It would for some...
                    Old Greg - In search of acceptance since Mar 2007. Hoping each leap will be his last.

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