New variant might not be any more transmissable

[jayn200]

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/...transmissible-

When the story of the new Covid-19 variant broke, my initial reaction was scepticism. I thought this new strain could just be a random genetic marker that coincided with an outbreak of cases that was caused by behaviour (or even “chance”) rather than by any important biological differences. We have more sophisticated measurement capability for biological data than for social data, and I worry that not enough has been done to rule out social explanations.

So if the new Covid-19 strain is more transmissible, why isn’t it taking over in every region?

Basically to sum it up, the author, an assistant professor of statistics at NYU, is questioning whether the new variant is really any more transmissible. This new variant happens to by chance easier to detect in testing and is identifiable using existing PCR testing whereas other variants aren't. In other regions in the UK this variant has been present but hasn't taken off like it has in London and south east. Leading the author to conclusion that there likely was some behavioural, social, or chance reason why this strain has become dominant rather than it being 70% easier to transmit as is being routinely reported by the media.

[AtW]

This tulip reminds me articles written in September along the lines - "so what if cases go up, the hospitalisations and deaths are low!"

[jayn200]

This tulip reminds me articles written in September along the lines - "so what if cases go up, the hospitalisations and deaths are low!"

Did you read it? Can you explain why the variant hasn't become the dominant strain anywhere outside of London and South East even though the levels started off very similar. Its only exploded in South East and London. There is no data to show yet that this strain is any more transmissible only that infections have increased in London and South east by the 70% number but no reason to suggest it is due to any increase in transmissibility.

We already know that modification of behaviour has a massive impact on the case numbers correct? That is the whole reason for lockdowns and restrictions, right? Do you agree? So why is it crazy to question whether this current increase is behavioural or social rather than due to new strain which just happens to be dominant strain (there has been several dominant strains this one just happens to be easy to test for due to its mutation)

[AtW]

Can you explain why the variant hasn't become the dominant strain anywhere outside of London and South East even though the levels started off very similar. Its only exploded in South East and London.

It takes time for the virus to spread - given exponential nature of this thing a few weeks time difference can be the difference between "all seems ok" and "tulip hitting the fan!", plus other parts of England were under stricter Tiers than London, so it's a double whammy.

Anyway it's published in Spectator, which tells me that this is just a crappy attempt to avoid the inevitable shutdown by trying to influence the cretin who reads it (Boris)

[AtW]

Why is the new strain is not spreading widely in Germany?

Must be fake news since it's not spreading there.

Let's start worrying about it when Alaska gets hit.

[jayn200]

It takes time for the virus to spread - given exponential nature of this thing a few weeks time difference can be the difference between "all seems ok" and "tulip hitting the fan!", plus other parts of England were under stricter Tiers than London, so it's a double whammy.

Anyway it's published in Spectator, which tells me that this is just a crappy attempt to avoid the inevitable shutdown by trying to influence the cretin who reads it (Boris)

Maybe, not sure what spectator is, never seen it or read it before today. It was originally posted here Neurath's Speedboat: Blog that is the professor's blog. It is mostly technical. Other posts there are technical, actually this post is technical too if you were to read it, it isn't political at all. The professor even routinely mentions that lockdown and other measures to restrict transmission are supported by the data and that isn't the point of the article.

[jayn200]

Why is the new strain is not spreading widely in Germany?

Must be fake news since it's not spreading there.

Let's start worrying about it when Alaska gets hit.

I like your thorough, scientific, and logical breakdown and rebuttal to the technical analysis given by the professor with a doctorate in statistics from Stanford.

[AtW]

I like your thorough, scientific, and logical breakdown and rebuttal to the technical analysis given by the professor with a doctorate in statistics from Stanford.

Stanford rejected my application so it’s only fair

[AtW]

Maybe, not sure what spectator is, never seen it or read it before today.

[darmstadt]

Assistant professor who is actually moving to the LSE.

joftius (Joshua Loftus) . GitHub

I like your thorough, scientific, and logical breakdown and rebuttal to the technical analysis given by the professor with a doctorate in statistics from Stanford.

Sent from my 5g carrier pigeon