DOOM: Covid-19: New variant 'raises R number by up to 0.7'

[AtW]

"The new variant of Covid-19 is "hugely" more transmissible than the virus's previous version, a study has found.

It concludes the new variant increases the Reproduction or R number by between 0.4 and 0.7.

The UK's latest R number has been estimated at between 1.1 and 1.3. It needs to be below 1.0 for the number of cases to start falling.

Prof Axel Gandy of London's Imperial College said the differences between the viruses types was "quite extreme".

"There is a huge difference in how easily the variant virus spreads," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

The Imperial College study suggests transmission of the new variant tripled during England's November lockdown while the previous version was reduced by a third."

Covid-19: New variant '''raises R number by up to 0.7''' - BBC News

We are officially fooked now.

[dsc]

Well now read this + all the comments and keep your fingers crossed the worst scenario doesn't come true:

https://twitter.com/EckerleIsabella/...643208195?s=19

[OwlHoot]

Well now read this + all the comments and keep your fingers crossed the worst scenario doesn't come true:

https://twitter.com/EckerleIsabella/...643208195?s=19

Maybe all the Christmas booze and turkey has dulled my wits, but it doesn't seem at all clear what the first comment there (by someone called Isabella Eckerle) is supposed to imply, or in other words what she is laboriously trying to say :

Is it just me or does uncontrolled, high level community transmission with circulation of several new #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 variants while starting vaccination with modified schemes, leading to partial immunity in a large proportion, sounds like a bad idea? ..

[Old Greg]

Maybe all the Christmas booze and turkey has dulled my wits, but it doesn't seem at all clear what the first comment there (by someone called Isabella Eckerle) is supposed to imply, or in other words what she is laboriously trying to say :

It ain’t true until confirmed by Simon Dolan.

[Hobosapien]

We are officially fooked now.

Nah, just requires a shift in normal behaviour and therefore new opportunities.

[dsc]

Maybe all the Christmas booze and turkey has dulled my wits, but it doesn't seem at all clear what the first comment there (by someone called Isabella Eckerle) is supposed to imply, or in other words what she is laboriously trying to say :

If you roll out the vaccine with cases soaring and only offer the first shot which lowers the efficacy to 70%, you increase the chances of the virus mutating and in effect generate a variant immune to the vaccine.

[SueEllen]

If you roll out the vaccine with cases soaring and only offer the first shot which lowers the efficacy to 70%, you increase the chances of the virus mutating and in effect generate a variant immune to the vaccine.

The efficiency with Pzifer one is higher than 70% with one dose.

Even if it is only 70% the more elderly people you get vaccinated with one dose, the less elderly people need a hospital bed if they get Covid and die from Covid.

You can work out the figures yourself.

[dsc]

The efficiency with Pzifer one is higher than 70% with one dose.

Even if it is only 70% the more elderly people you get vaccinated with one dose, the less elderly people need a hospital bed if they get Covid and die from Covid.

You can work out the figures yourself.

From what I've read no one studied gaps that big, its possible a single dose works fine, but it also might not work at all. They are now also saying that the NHS might offer a different vaccine for the second jab which also makes very little sense and definitely wasn't done in trials. Remember this is rolled out on a huge chunk of the population, not a small controlled group of volunteers, so it's a pretty big experiment.

Anyways, the main point was that there's a pretty big risk with rolling out a vaccine in a middle of a raging pandemic, where R is off the scale. The biggest worry being of course the creation of a variant which is immune to the vaccine.

[Old Greg]

From what I've read no one studied gaps that big, its possible a single dose works fine, but it also might not work at all. They are now also saying that the NHS might offer a different vaccine for the second jab which also makes very little sense and definitely wasn't done in trials. Remember this is rolled out on a huge chunk of the population, not a small controlled group of volunteers, so it's a pretty big experiment.

Anyways, the main point was that there's a pretty big risk with rolling out a vaccine in a middle of a raging pandemic, where R is off the scale. The biggest worry being of course the creation of a variant which is immune to the vaccine.

Biggest worry is a new drug (vaccine or therapy) initiating the zombie apocalypse.

[AtW]

Biggest worry is a new drug (vaccine or therapy) initiating the zombie apocalypse.

Some may think it's a joke, but it's deadly serious matter.