London population set to decline for first time since 1988 – report | UK news | The Guardian
London’s population is set to decline for the first time in more than 30 years, driven by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and people reassessing where they live during the crisis, according to a report.
The accountancy firm PwC said the number of people living in the capital could fall by more than 300,000 this year, from a record level of about 9 million in 2020, to as low as 8.7 million. This would end decades of growth with the first annual drop since 1988.
The forecast comes as city-dwellers rethink their living situations during lockdown and a boom in home working during the pandemic encourages growing numbers of people to consider moving elsewhere.
Other drivers include a smaller number of graduates moving to London, fewer job opportunities in the capital and lower international migration to the city as a result of the pandemic and Brexit. Net EU migration to the UK as a whole has fallen since the 2016 Brexit vote, and could turn negative in 2021 – meaning more people leave the UK for the EU than arrive from it – for the first time since the early 1990s, according to PwC forecasts.
The accountancy firm also said the UK could record a “baby bust” in 2021, with the annual birth rate dipping to the lowest level since records began more than a century ago.
Although it will take time before official population figures are published, PwC said there were early signs that London was on track to shrink for the first time this century. It said an August 2020 survey by the London Assembly found that 4.5% of Londoners – or 416,000 people – said they would definitely move out of the city within the next 12 months.
London’s population is set to decline for the first time in more than 30 years, driven by the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic and people reassessing where they live during the crisis, according to a report.
The accountancy firm PwC said the number of people living in the capital could fall by more than 300,000 this year, from a record level of about 9 million in 2020, to as low as 8.7 million. This would end decades of growth with the first annual drop since 1988.
The forecast comes as city-dwellers rethink their living situations during lockdown and a boom in home working during the pandemic encourages growing numbers of people to consider moving elsewhere.
Other drivers include a smaller number of graduates moving to London, fewer job opportunities in the capital and lower international migration to the city as a result of the pandemic and Brexit. Net EU migration to the UK as a whole has fallen since the 2016 Brexit vote, and could turn negative in 2021 – meaning more people leave the UK for the EU than arrive from it – for the first time since the early 1990s, according to PwC forecasts.
The accountancy firm also said the UK could record a “baby bust” in 2021, with the annual birth rate dipping to the lowest level since records began more than a century ago.
Although it will take time before official population figures are published, PwC said there were early signs that London was on track to shrink for the first time this century. It said an August 2020 survey by the London Assembly found that 4.5% of Londoners – or 416,000 people – said they would definitely move out of the city within the next 12 months.
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