House prices: 50% falls before fair value House prices: 50% falls before fair value
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  1. #1

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    Default House prices: 50% falls before fair value

    Recent house price falls represent just a fraction of the potential 50% downside shown when growth is measured against historical data stretching back almost 60 years.

    Health warning: If you are highly mortgaged, or have recently bought property, reading this article could seriously damage your health

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/...2949&ea=118560

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turion View Post
    Recent house price falls represent just a fraction of the potential 50% downside shown when growth is measured against historical data stretching back almost 60 years.

    Health warning: If you are highly mortgaged, or have recently bought property, reading this article could seriously damage your health

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/...2949&ea=118560
    They've already fallen 15% in 6 months.

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    Recent house price falls represent just a fraction of the potential 50% downside shown when growth is measured against historical data stretching back almost 60 years.
    How many people owned their own home 60 years ago? This data is worthless as it doesn't consider certain trends such as population growth and relative affluence.

    According to a local news report a few nights ago house prices haven't fallen in my area of the south west.
    Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired. - Cave Johnson

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    Quote Originally Posted by gingerjedi View Post
    How many people owned their own home 60 years ago? This data is worthless as it doesn't consider certain trends such as population growth and relative affluence.
    OK, I take it all back then, cos it's different this time

    No, actually I don't because all investment bubbles eventually burst. Housing became the must do investment fad, and it's starting to deflate.

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    http://www.nationwide.co.uk/hpi/calculator.asp

    If you use this crude calculator it seems Northern Ireland accounts for the biggest falls (-12% compared to UK average of -2.5% which includes NI) but if you compare prices from 8 years ago Northern Ireland had by far the biggest gains in the first place.

    When mortgages and investments are sold there is a government warning they carry which states rates can go down as well as up and historical data cannot be relied upon, yes it is very different from 60 years ago.
    Last edited by gingerjedi; 1st May 2008 at 20:18.
    Science isn't about why, it's about why not. You ask: why is so much of our science dangerous? I say: why not marry safe science if you love it so much. In fact, why not invent a special safety door that won't hit you in the butt on the way out, because you are fired. - Cave Johnson

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    Quote Originally Posted by Turion View Post
    Recent house price falls represent just a fraction of the potential 50% downside shown when growth is measured against historical data stretching back almost 60 years.

    Health warning: If you are highly mortgaged, or have recently bought property, reading this article could seriously damage your health

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/...2949&ea=118560
    What a one track, one trick pony nobhead you really are. YAWN.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Turion View Post
    Recent house price falls represent just a fraction of the potential 50% downside shown when growth is measured against historical data stretching back almost 60 years.

    Health warning: If you are highly mortgaged, or have recently bought property, reading this article could seriously damage your health

    http://www.citywire.co.uk/adviser/-/...2949&ea=118560
    It's okay Turion, you're safe aren't you. renting a dingy basement bedsit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by gingerjedi View Post
    How many people owned their own home 60 years ago? This data is worthless as it doesn't consider certain trends such as population growth and relative affluence.

    60 years maybe, but 70s-now is pretty representative of things. I'd say the graph shows we have pretty good predictor of house price trends, and it links up well to the economic cycle. When the recession hits there is no way house prices won't significantly fall, especially, as we can now also see, many immigrants will leave in a downturn.
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    Default Turion lives in a coucil house

    Turion,

    Your posting history clearly illustrates that you have a deep and abiding loathing for anyone who actually owns property.

    I own several properties, have no mortgages, and receive a modest income from them.

    So what's your problem?

    Are you some sort of socialist who would have my property confiscated for the good of the state?

    You've come right out the other side of the forest of irony and ended up in the desert of wrong.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bogeyman View Post
    Turion,

    Your posting history clearly illustrates that you have a deep and abiding loathing for anyone who actually owns property.

    I own several properties, have no mortgages, and receive a modest income from them.

    So what's your problem?

    Are you some sort of socialist who would have my property confiscated for the good of the state?

    You look like a commie to me comrade.
    I was miserable and depressed, but CUK turned it all around. Now I'm depressed and miserable.

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