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Economic Prediction

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    #11
    Originally posted by expat View Post
    No, although that is a common assertion (based on Kondratieff's theory), the idea of a long cycle is not mentioned either in the New Scientist article linked, not in the original Club of Rome report.

    I still have my copy of Limits to Growth bought at the time. Then, the whole idea of a comprehensive computer model for the world economy was quite novel. It drew attention to the ideas of, well, Limits to Growth, and served a useful purpose there. But it was too primitive and dogmatic, and it has not been borne out in detail. For example, based on the model and the then consumption, it predicted the world running out of Chromium in something like the early 1980s. What actually happened was that cars stopped being covered in chrome (you forget these days how ubiquitous it was) so the supplies survived for other purposes.

    I'd say the New Scientist article is a journalistic cobbling together of several sources to make it look like there's a story, when really there is neither anything new nor anything definite. Much like a typical CUK Front Page
    Ok. Admittedly I made the comparison to the Kondratieff theory after only a cursory glance at the article ( I read 30 year prediction and made the leap immediately). As for the rest of it, you have more eloquently pointed out what I was alluding to...nothing new or of major interest then.

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