Economy will be over worst by October Economy will be over worst by October
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  1. #1

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    Default Economy will be over worst by October

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...r-Darling.html

    Economy will be over worst by October, says Alistair Darling
    The British economy will be over the worst of the downturn in six months, Alistair Darling will declare in his Budget.

    The Chancellor is set to forecast that the economy will halt its fall in the last quarter of the year, which starts in October. He will predict a return to growth at the turn of the year, with a recovery well underway by the time of the next general election.

    The outlook will draw political accusations of over-optimism, since some forecasters are much more pessimistic. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research this week suggested that economic growth may not resume until 2012.

    However, some independent economists believe the Treasury position is credible: nearly half the City analysts polled this week by Reuters said the UK economy will at least stabilise in the last three months of the year, and some predict growth will resume then.

    Despite bleak economic data and rising unemployment, government insiders say there are some reasons for cautious optimism, including last week's Bank of England credit survey suggesting banks are preparing to lend more to families and companies in the months ahead.

    Some economists also expect the US economy to pull out of its recession in the second half of the year. President Barack Obama has said he sees "glimmers of hope" for a recovery.

    And the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said on Friday that although all major economies are suffering a major contraction, there are some "tentative signs of improvement" in the rate of decline in France and Germany.

    The forecast of resumed British growth may be the only optimistic signal in an otherwise gloomy Budget. Mr Darling is set to accept that during a year-long contraction that started last year, the UK economy shrank by more than 3 per cent, the sharpest fall for a generation.

    Faced with an ever-growing hole in the public finances, he will also announce long-term tax rises and spending cuts to try to balance his budget over the next six years.

    There will be few eye-catching giveaways, although Whitehall discussions are continuing about offering a £2,000 "scrappage fee" to people trading in used cars for new models.

    Despite reports that the Treasury has rejected the proposal by Lord Mandelson, the Business Secretary, sources said over the weekend that the plan remains "on the table".

    In his last forecast at the pre-Budget report in November, Mr Darling predicted that growth would resume from the third quarter, which begins in July.

    Although the Chancellor has since admitted that he understated the severity of the recession and will have to increase his estimate of the depth of the slump, in the Budget he will only move his prediction of renewed growth back by three months.

    The Treasury is signalling it believes the British downturn could be 'V'-shaped, a steep fall followed by a relatively quick rebound. Stephen Timms, a Treasury minister this week signalled the Government expects growth to resume this year, adding: "The question is when in the second half of the year."

    Signs of economic recovery around the New Year are vital to Gordon Brown's fragile hopes of winning a general election next spring.

    Labour strategists also believe the party must appear optimistic about the future, accusing the Tories of "talking Britain down".

    However, even if headline figures like gross domestic product are improving by then, unemployment - which lags behind economic growth - may still be rising as the Prime Minister goes to the polls.

    =====================================


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    If that idiot told me I had two legs I wouldn't believe him....
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    Quote Originally Posted by BrilloPad View Post
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...r-Darling.html

    Economy will be over worst by October, says Alistair Darling
    When I saw the thread title, I thought I would click to see if there was some well informed data that might show some light on the horizon.

    As soon as I saw the second line and saw that it was the view of Alistair Darling, the sense of disappointment was enough for me to sink into the basement

    Given that the chancellor (current and immediate predecessor) has consistently got growth figures wrong for years, this virtually guarantees that the recession will not be over the worst by October.

    At least before today, I could have lived in hope that we would be over the worst in 6 months. Now I know I have more chance of winning the lottery...

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by BrilloPad View Post
    He will predict a return to growth at the turn of the year, with a recovery well underway by the time of the next general election.
    More a case of has to be... from the governments perspective

    Quote Originally Posted by BrilloPad View Post
    The Treasury is signalling it believes the British downturn could be 'V'-shaped, a steep fall followed by a relatively quick rebound.
    More likely W shaped. A bit of a rebound - just in time to win the election until all the delayed measures (tax rises, inflation caused by printing money etc.) kick in to send us back down again.

    I heard they're considering "extending the VAT cut" for a further six months - how long is that for - oh just after the next election.

    And if Labour do lose, it will be the Tories fault when it all goes to pot again.

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    Ah great, it will be over by Christmas

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    Economy will be over worst by October
    Some typist must have misheard that headline ..

    ever worse
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    Not because it has been uttered by Darling, but purely on my own instincts, I think that come the end of the summer the economy will be turning the corner.

    I suspect that this current down-turn has been largely engineered by the goverment in the belief that they can be seen to 'pull things around' just in time for the next election. Let's face it, they have been exposed with the email smear campaign scandal that they are prepared to stoop to any level to ensure that they get re-elected.


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    October? We have a record current account deficit that is getting bigger. What has Darling been smoking?

    There won't be a turnaround until after Labour are turfed out at the next election. Then things will get worse while the new government carries out the painful task of cutting the deficit.

    2012 looks earliest for a proper turnaround.

  9. #9

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    Yawn. exactly the same pattern as the last recession -assorted politicians claiming an upturn is imminent. Even if the GDP figures show a positive number, un/employment is a lagging indicator and employment doesn't return to normal levels for at least 2 years.
    That was the case in the last recession and I don't see this one being any better.
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    Quote Originally Posted by zeitghost View Post
    You can still hop...

    Just don't enter any arse kicking contests...
    I assumed he was Jake the peg?

    Quote Originally Posted by centurian View Post
    When I saw the thread title, I thought I would click to see if there was some well informed data that might show some light on the horizon.

    As soon as I saw the second line and saw that it was the view of Alistair Darling, the sense of disappointment was enough for me to sink into the basement

    Given that the chancellor (current and immediate predecessor) has consistently got growth figures wrong for years, this virtually guarantees that the recession will not be over the worst by October.

    At least before today, I could have lived in hope that we would be over the worst in 6 months. Now I know I have more chance of winning the lottery...
    It was unfair of me to edit the title : but I knew in its original form no-one would bother reading further.

    I would apologize but general is full of trolls.

    HTH

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