False positives - Contractor UK Bulletin Board

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TimberWolf

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#1

False positives

20 August 2009, 09:58

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate (10% false positives). As the machine scans this years self-assessment papers 3,000 contractors are tested and the first 30 escape detection, while the 31st fails. How sure are you that this person is due a lengthy legal battle?

10 Voters

90%	0.00%	0 votes
10%	0.00%	0 votes
0.3%	20.00%	2 votes
AndyW would just assume the identity of one of his uncaught sockpuppets	80.00%	8 votes

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chef

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#2

20 August 2009, 10:05

what machine?

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DimPrawn

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#3

20 August 2009, 10:07

I've no idea what this is about.
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EternalOptimist

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#4

20 August 2009, 10:10

Originally posted by DimPrawn View Post

I've no idea what this is about.

i do.
he forgot one bit of info, the proprtion of caught contractors

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TimberWolf

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#5

20 August 2009, 10:10

Originally posted by chef View Post

what machine?

It's okay, it's fictional.
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snaw

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#6

20 August 2009, 10:36

Originally posted by TimberWolf View Post

It's okay, it's fictional.

That's not a very funny proposition to be putting to members of this board.

I could smell the fear from permieville.

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BrilloPad

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#7

20 August 2009, 10:51

Originally posted by TimberWolf View Post

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate (10% false positives). As the machine scans this years self-assessment papers 3,000 contractors are tested and the first 30 escape detection, while the 31st fails. How sure are you that this person is due a lengthy legal battle?

All 31 face a lengthy legal battle.

HTH
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thunderlizard

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#8

20 August 2009, 10:52

Originally posted by TimberWolf View Post

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate

Current PCG stats: 1462 wins, 6 losses

I've got a similar machine that's more than 90% accurate. It's a piece of paper with "No" written on it.
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AlfredJPruffock

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#9

20 August 2009, 11:21

Originally posted by TimberWolf View Post

It's okay, it's fictional.

Are you sure about that ?

Is this perhaps related to ScotsPine's Prime Number Generator computer - has this been leaked to Hector ?

If Hector manages to calculate the incalculable there could well be trouble ahead ... look out for IR666 .

Last edited by AlfredJPruffock; 20 August 2009, 11:23.
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RichardCranium

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#10

20 August 2009, 11:33

Originally posted by TimberWolf View Post

The Inland Revenue have a new machine that can detect IR35-caught contractors. It's good, at 90% accurate (10% false positives). As the machine scans this years self-assessment papers 3,000 contractors are tested and the first 30 escape detection, while the 31st fails. How sure are you that this person is due a lengthy legal battle?

Statistics aren't your thing, are they?

What about false negatives?

And 30 in 3000 is 1%, not 10%.

I think evidence provided by this machine would be thrown out of court as being too bollocks-dependant.

My all-time favourite Dilbert cartoon, this is: BTW, a Dumpster is a brand of skip, I think.
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