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    Default Climate change

    Question for the experts (sasguru on statistics and pjclarke on science).

    It's called climate change, so this means the climate must be changing.

    So simple question, for the UK for example, what is the climate changing from (the past pre CO2 output) and what is it heading to?

    Is it heading for freezing winters on the whole with heavy snowfall being not uncommon or is it heading for almost snow free winters (bar the once in XXX year freak events)?

    Are summers going to be record breaking heatwaves and lots of dead bodies or are the recent damp squib summers the future climate?

    Put your money where your mouth is and use science to make predictions that can be measured, without changing it all when you look like plonkers down the line

    PS. you can't keep changing the science and just say "it's science, it evolves". That's just called lieing, guessing or being plain wrong all time.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DimPrawn View Post

    PS. you can't keep changing the science and just say "it's science, it evolves". That's just called lieing, guessing or being plain wrong all time.
    This statement shows you don't understand what science is. I suggest Kuhn ("The structure of scientific revolutions") and Popper as suitable background reading.
    That will avoid making mistakes such as EO asking for proof of a scientific theory
    Otherwise you are just ing and I refer you to my post:

    http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...ml#post1290365

    HTH, BIKIW
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    Quote Originally Posted by sasguru View Post
    This statement shows you don't understand what science is. I suggest Kuhn ("The structure of scientific revolutions") and Popper as suitable background reading.
    That will avoid making mistakes such as EO asking for proof of a scientific theory
    Otherwise you are just ing and I refer you to my post:

    http://forums.contractoruk.com/gener...ml#post1290365

    HTH, BIKIW
    Chocolate teapot response as usual.

    I think it you that doesn't understand science and thinks it can say whatever it wants, whenever it wants, without basis, proof or accountability.

    This all goes to show there is proper science, which has made progress for mankind and there is AGW science which is akin to looking at the runes.
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    Quote Originally Posted by DimPrawn View Post
    Question for the experts (sasguru on statistics and pjclarke on science).

    It's called climate change, so this means the climate must be changing.

    So simple question, for the UK for example, what is the climate changing from (the past pre CO2 output) and what is it heading to?

    Is it heading for freezing winters on the whole with heavy snowfall being not uncommon or is it heading for almost snow free winters (bar the once in XXX year freak events)?

    Are summers going to be record breaking heatwaves and lots of dead bodies or are the recent damp squib summers the future climate?

    Put your money where your mouth is and use science to make predictions that can be measured, without changing it all when you look like plonkers down the line

    PS. you can't keep changing the science and just say "it's science, it evolves". That's just called lieing, guessing or being plain wrong all time.
    It's going to change from being globally cooler to globally warmer. On average. Clue is in the name 'global warming'.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Old Greg View Post
    It's going to change from being globally cooler to globally warmer. On average. Clue is in the name 'global warming'.
    So global cooling is evidence of global warming, and carbon taxes aren't just a con to fleece people out of more money for no reason
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    Quote Originally Posted by DimPrawn View Post

    I think it you that doesn't understand science
    Correct.

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    Quote Originally Posted by amcdonald View Post
    So global cooling is evidence of global warming, and carbon taxes aren't just a con to fleece people out of more money for no reason
    Just answering the question. BTW I have no faith in carbon taxes.
    Quote Originally Posted by Bean
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    Quote Originally Posted by DimPrawn View Post
    PS. you can't keep changing the science and just say "it's science, it evolves". That's just called lieing, guessing or being plain wrong all time.
    Sir Isaac Newton called - he wants his Clockwork Universe back

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    Quote Originally Posted by NickFitz View Post
    Sir Isaac Newton called - he wants his Clockwork Universe back
    oh that old fraud.

    I always wondered what would have happened if it had been a mango that fell on his ead


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    Sorry to disappoint but the model resolution is not yet good enough to give useful short term predictions at the sub-continental scale. (The clue is in the name: global warming). For Europe see here. At the regional level apparently paradoxical things can happen:- the rapid warming of the Arctic can increase winter precipitation in Europe and North America giving the apparently ironic result of more snow. The planet is like that, complex.

    Now let me explain something: scientists conduct research and publish it in journals, after extensive review and with caveats and statements of uncertainty. No scientist will ever state that a theory is 100% correct or that science is settled . For example the IPCC estimate that there is around a 10% chance that the recent GW is not anthropogenic. Sometimes other scientists publish commentary contradicting, refining or improving the results and so the endeavour progresses.

    Journalists write articles about the studies. Generally appalling, often misquoting the scientists, frequently brushing away the caveats and uncertainties (this certainly happened with the 'hockey stick'). Finally a sub-editor adds a headline to the piece which may or may not be a useful summary..

    Showing that a headline from a decade ago is apparently contradicted a more recent one is a bizarre use of time. Assuming you'd like to be taken seriously, if you could find an actual primary study predicting more snow contradicting another study predicting less, after the error bars are taken into account, then I for one would be all ears. Otherwise it's all just MediaWank.

    Anyhoo, Northern Europe is predicted to warm most rapidly in winter, and before you jump in with the obvious knee-jerk response, I would point out that seven out of the last 10 European winters (and 10/10 summers btw) have been warmer than the long term average. Climate is like that. Long term.

    BTW At a global level, the IPCC projected an increase in surface temperatures from 1990-2010 of +0.32C. The actual observed trend was ....



    0.32C.
    Last edited by pjclarke; 2nd March 2011 at 20:54.
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