How can gov estimate 170K contractors will be affected by IR35

[blackeagle]

You might have noticed quite some time ago it was in the news that the gov estimated 170K contractors will be affected by IR35 changes. Since there is around 2M in UK; does anyone have reasonable explanation on how this might have been calculated, or any solid knowledge? Is it targeting a specific market, revenue etc.???

[NeedTheSunshine]

You might have noticed quite some time ago it was in the news that the gov estimated 170K contractors will be affected by IR35 changes. Since there is around 2M in UK; does anyone have reasonable explanation on how this might have been calculated, or any solid knowledge? Is it targeting a specific market, revenue etc.???

You could raise an FOI request and ask them

[blackeagle]

You could raise an FOI request and ask them

Hey yes that's true first I need to make sure about the source of information but I am struggling to find it. There are multiple copies of these news when you search with keywords IR35 and 170,000. Some sources say "gov estimates" this number. But in gov sources I couldn't find any trace of this yet.

[BolshieBastard]

You might have noticed quite some time ago it was in the news that the gov estimated 170K contractors will be affected by IR35 changes. Since there is around 2M in UK; does anyone have reasonable explanation on how this might have been calculated, or any solid knowledge? Is it targeting a specific market, revenue etc.???

170k is the Government's default number apparently. They used the 170k figure as the number of people they 'expect' to register for the drone registration database despite there not being 170k drone flyers based on sales.

[PTP]

@ Blackeagle

See this thread for examples of why any figures from gov on how many are "affected" are meaningless

https://www.contractoruk.com/forums/...ntracting.html

[Hobosapien]

Maybe the 170k is the number that ticked the 'Ltd is a PSC' optional box on the self-assessment. I never ticked it as it was optional so I chose to save the ink.

Though I suspect the figure will have been obtained to meet their agenda. Not too low to make the implementation cost look bad (i.e. 'why bother, aren't there bigger things to be working on?'), or too high risking drawing too much attention from those not directly affected or currently unaware they may be until it's too late to try to put a spanner in the works.

[WordIsBond]

Since there is around 2M in UK; does anyone have reasonable explanation on how this might have been calculated, or any solid knowledge? Is it targeting a specific market, revenue etc.???

'Targeting' is the key word, glad you used it. They paint a wall with different figures, blindfold the chancellor, and have him throw a dart at the wall.

If it hits a figure that is good for their agenda, they report it. If it hits a figure that isn't good for their agenda, they paint a new figure on the wall around where the dart hit.

[blackeagle]

170k is the Government's default number apparently. They used the 170k figure as the number of people they 'expect' to register for the drone registration database despite there not being 170k drone flyers based on sales.

I even found the same figure in some health related topics in UK That must be some magic number that worked for them in the past Hope it will be cursed by the next chancellor!