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As we approach the end of a year that has seen the decimation of the UK's private banking industry, thrown contractors into panic about their prospects, and told the lie behind the phrase "intelligent economist," believe it or not, there is some extremely good news for contractors' bottom lines. It's not the usual stuff of rising rates, because at the moment rates are static. Following the slight increase of average rates across the ten most commonly requested contract IT roles last quarter (to £31.45), rates have fallen back by just two pence. And it's not that the buy-to-let market has held up magnificently in the face of all the odds. If you're heavily indebted to Bradford and Bingley's self-certification mortgages there's probably no help for you as rents and property prices are falling faster than reputations in corporate governance. The Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) said that repossessions will rise from 45,000 this year to 75,000 by the end of 2009, and a sizeable share will be properties owned by landlords. The good news is not about taxation either. The government's PBR (Pre-Budget Report) did give some respite to a reported 2,200 small company owners that have taken up Chancellor Alistair Darling’s magnificently generous offer to pay their tax bills on a timetable they can afford. This is of course hopeless for contractors whose outgoings are usually minimal (apart from tax), and most of the firms that have so far put in a request, are of the 'lifestyle' variety. No, the really super news as 2008 ages and dies is that the millennium bug is back. Let me explain. At the turn of the century contractors' rates rocketed as governments, insurance firms, NGOs airlines, the NHS and many private firms employed all the programmers that could test and fix how dates were held in their computer systems. The fear, of course, was that double-digit date 00 would be counted as the year 1900 instead of the year 2000 causing aeroplanes to fall out the skies, nuclear power stations to meltdown and pensioners to receive mysterious bonuses (or unexplained requests for premiums). Dates had to be converted, en masse, to four digits. The extravagant fears turned out to be largely unfounded but not until after the entire contracting industry had seen rates double and five years of fabulous employment opportunities, as companies prepared for the worst from 1995 onwards. Could such a windfall really occur again? Not as century end, for sure, but according to a Telegraph report this month, "Just as the millennium bug sparked fears of a computer meltdown, the worry is that zero interest rates would cause an unpredictable chain reaction of destruction in the financial system." Interest rates have plummeted from 5% to 2% since early October and are heading lower. Some analysts say 0% is not out of the question. Imagine all the policy bounds checkers and field validation routines that need modifying to handle zero percent interest rates. The entire insurance industry will be clambering to find COBOL programmers able to understand 30 year old code and everybody else will benefit as demand escalates. Excellent news indeed, because full employment of IT contractors is an absolute requirement of a functioning society. Otherwise they may turn their skills to more dubious pursuits. At least according to Finjan's MCRC (Malicious Code Research Centre). The MCRC has been following and covering the evolution of cybercrime in recent years, and its latest trends report predicts 2009 will see rising cybercrime with an increasing number of unemployed IT professionals joining in! The report also suggests cybercriminals will benefit from the Obama Administration’s plan to bring broadband to every American, "leveraging the most advanced techniques and services that Web 2.0 can offer, with a focus on Trojan technologies." As if to illustrate the scenario Microsoft released its first non-scheduled security patch in 18 months as a zero-day vulnerability came to light on booby-trapped websites. Surfers located in China first reported infection with a Trojan (Downloader-AZN) when using IE 7, and investigations found exploits targeting the browser on Windows XP Service Pack 3 and Vista SP 1. Nobody has yet suggested the malware was created by disgruntled, out of contract IT workers, but in time of economic hardship and with unemployment rumoured to be heading for 3 million, the "devil makes work for idle hands" might be an apt warning. So why not ignore the horned demon whispering in your ear and surf the internet instead, if you happen to be looking for work next year. The Guardian published its top 100 websites for 2009 and while CUK didn't make it this time, you can surely find something constructive to pursue at the recommended geek sites: stackoverflow.com thedailywtf.com or joelonsoftware.com. Happy surfing, and a very happy Christmas. William Knight Dec 19, 2008 Email this article Printer friendly page Previous Page
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