Autumn Budget 2025 set for Nov 26, ‘putting contractors on watch’

Autumn Budget 2025 is to be delivered on November 26th, the chancellor has announced.

Rachel Reeves made the announcement unconventionally, in a YouTube video posted by HM Treasury (HMT).

The video begins with the chancellor sitting down in her 11 Downing Street office, relaxed but poised, with hands crossed at her side.

Shot to evoke a one-to-one meeting with Reeves, the video then shows her taking selfies, meeting workers, and wearing vibrant suits.

‘Autumn Budget 2025 very likely to freeze income tax threshold’

The relaxed approach won’t fool contractors into letting their guard down on Nov 26th, hints contractor accountant Dan Mepham.

Mepham reminds that with HMT needing to raise money, a further income tax threshold freeze at Autumn Budget 2025 is “very likely”.

He also told ContractorUK he expects Reeves to make changes to property/council tax, wealth taxes, Capital Gains Tax, IHT and ISAs.

‘Lot on the table for Reeves to hit contractors with on Nov 26th’

“There is a lot still on the table for the chancellor to affect contractors with,” says Mepham, boss at SG Accounting.

“And that’s even after factoring in Labour’s pre-election pledge not to raise income tax’s headline rates. But expect more fiscal drag.”

Michael McCullion, also an accountant, fears the pledge is no longer keepable, given a £20-£50billion black hole in the public finances.

“I’ve got a nagging feeling some manifesto promises might not survive the red box,” says McCullion, of Bright Ideas Accountancy.

“[Although] every Budget seems to bring a mix of hope and dread, [this autumn’s] one feels like it's all geared up to be bad news.”

‘Cut to VAT registration threshold’

Therefore, far from the mooted rise in the VAT threshold, McCullion says that a “cut” to the £90,000 ceiling now looks more likely.

He also said he isn’t ruling out the prospect of Reeves using Autumn Budget just 12 weeks from now to “return to higher National Insurance.”

Employers said in August that the chancellor’s last autumn package (Oct 2024) is still inflating employment costs and dampening hiring.

The OBR has calculated that higher employer NICs (since April 2025) results in an average annual tax increase of over £800 per employee.

‘Chancellor just admitted UK economy isn’t working well for enough working people’

Meredith McCammond, of the Low Incomes Tax Reform Group (LITRG), says there are grounds to hope the penny has dropped.

“In today's video about Autumn Budget 2025, Reeves acknowledged that the economy is ‘not working well for enough working people.’

“A big area that could help…is employment status for tax purposes,” McCammond, LITRG’s technical tax officer told ContractorUK.

“While we expect movement soon on employment law status, it's crucial that HMT/HMRC commit at the budget to also tackling the tax side.”

‘Only 3/10 chance of IR35 at Autumn Budget 2025’

Seb Maley, CEO of Qdos, says there’s only a “3/10” chance that Autumn Budget 2025 will mention the IR35 off-payroll working rules.

Maley was responding to questions after the IR35 contract review firm said that, in wake of Reeves’ video, contractors’ “priority” would be IR35.

“And three [out of 10 is] if I’m being optimistic,” Qdos’ boss told ContractorUK, when asked to score the likelihood that contractors will hear “IR35” on Nov 26th.

‘Contractors placed inside IR35 are effectively zero-rights employees’ 

Maley added: “[But] what [would] contractors want to see when it comes to IR35 and the off-payroll rules?

“First, that their clients are making fair, rigorous IR35 determinations — and are prevented from blanket-placing contractors inside IR35 irrespective of their true status.

“And secondly, [remember] contractors placed inside IR35 are effectively zero-rights employees — paying tax as an employee but without any of the benefits that come with it. This needs resolving.”

‘Umbrella company market is main focus’

Maley says there’s only a 30% chance that Autumn Budget 2025 will contain ‘IR35’ or ‘OPW’ because umbrella companies are already taking up the government's contractor policymaking bandwidth.

“Government’s attention has turned to the umbrella industry, whether that’s…[Joint & Several Liability] or regulation in 2027.”

He added that another “major blocker” that “one-person companies” will want Reeves to address is corporation tax.

‘Corporation tax cut would be very surprising’

But SG Accounting says Personal Service Company (PSC) directors shouldn’t get their hopes up for a cut in small company taxation.

“I would be very surprised to see any changes to corporation tax on Wednesday November 26th,” says Mr Mepham.

“[We] don’t envisage any changes affecting only [PSC] contractors. At least, not anything affecting them as a group on their own.”

But just as independent workers may, then, be indirectly, adversely affected by any budgetary ISA or CGT changes, they may be indirectly positively affected as well.

‘Self-employed need MTD soft landing from HMRC’

LITRG’s Ms McCammond told ContractorUK: “HMRC's Making Tax Digital programme [starting April 2026]…is a huge change for self-employed individuals, and some may struggle to adapt quickly.

“We hope the budget will include an announcement of a ‘soft landing’ period under the new MTD penalty regime.

“Or a delay to the new MTD penalty regime, giving everyone at least one full cycle to submit quarterly updates and end-of-year returns using MTD software.”

‘Contractors may not need be on Autumn Budget watch for SDLT changes’

SG Accounting’s Mr Mepham says there’s one much-disliked tax that the chancellor will invariably ignore, assuming she wants to keep the deputy PM — author of the notorious tax-raising memo — on side.

Pointing to press reports this afternoon, the contractor accountancy boss told ContractorUK: “Stamp duty might now be off the list of taxes that contractors must be on watch for at Autumn Budget 2025.

“That’s because the government might simply want to keep a low profile on stamp duty after Angela Rayner’s reported admission of an SDLT underpayment on a £800k property.”