"What the housing market needs most right now is clarity."
So says Jonathan Stinton, head of mortgage relations at Coventry Building Society.
Clarity? Good. Ideas drip-feed? Bad
The inspiration behind the headline of this article, Stinton added — (a little ironically, I acknowledge, given the nature of this article), that "drip-feeding policy ideas months ahead of time is unhelpful for everyone."
For context, writes John Yerou, CEO of contractor mortgage broker Freelancer Financials. Stinton was speaking to mortgage industry bible, Mortgage Soup.
Housing market whispers? It's a Labour thing
His comments were made in light of housing market ideas floated from within Labour, on the back of the scrambled announcement that Autumn Budget 2025 is coming down the pipe not even 10 weeks from now.
I have to say, I agree with both of Stinton's sentiments; first, that clarity is a must for the property market, and second, that an ideas drip-feed is detrimental for all.
A party desperate for validation, before its next set piece on Nov 26th
On one hand, you can see why Labour wants to gauge responses to potential policy announcements.
It's already had to execute embarrassing U-turns on winter fuel payments and welfare reform. And these were instigated from within its own ranks by revolting backbenchers.
The party's leadership can ill-afford to show such weakness again. Perhaps that's why the prime minister, Keir Starmer, Labour leader, has drafted so many economic experts into Number 10 in the last few days and weeks.
The PM clearly wants to make sure that whatever policies chancellor Rachel Reeves proposes from next door for unveiling on November 26th will pass muster.
What Jonathan said
But really, these should be conversations kept within the houses of power.
As Coventry Building Society's Mr Stinton correctly said, testing the water publicly only serves up confusion for the electorate.
And, in particular in this instance, homebuyers, home-movers, landlords, tenants and first-time buyers. Yep — that's almost everyone in the housing chain, apart from homeowners staying put.
The ever-murkier lot of the private landlord
Many contractors use buy-to-let mortgages to earn rental income to top up either their income or pensions.
There's ominous 'thinktanking' in the air (if not yet writing on the wall), around rental properties.
The Times has said that "sources have said" (no ambiguity there, then) that Labour insiders see rental income as "a significant potential extra source of funds."
'Extra source of funds' is ominous, as Autumn Budget 2025 looms large
At a time when the gap in public funds is widening so swiftly, you can bet HM Treasury's boss is looking everywhere she can to plug it.
A sniff at the words "extra source of funds" is bound to have turned the chancellor's head.
In short, it appears that elements within Labour view landlords as benefiting from "unearned income" (The Times).
And perhaps there was a time when that maybe had more truth in it than it does today. It may even explain why there's a potential raid on landlords' income to boost the Treasury coffers. But successive governments just don't seem to be able to put two and two together.
Knock after knock after knock
Landlords' income has taken a real beating in recent years.
The reduction and eventual erasure of the capacity to claim mortgage interest against tax.
The capacity for local government to impose double council tax on rental properties.
I could go on.
Bring landlords' income within National Insurance. Just an idea, apparently
Within the trickled-out pre-Autumn Budget ideas for the housing market, there's even more potential bad news. Floated around has been the suggestion that landlord income should also be liable to National Insurance.
Right now, income from property, savings, or pensions is exempt from national insurance. If rental income is exposed to the 8% charge, a landlord bringing in between £50-£70,000 a year from rent would incur an extra £1,000 in tax to HMRC.
This "extra source of funds" would potentially bring in approximately £2billion a year for the Treasury.
And they've got the gall to talk about earning "unearned income!"
Unfortunately, if you're a contractor with a buy-to-let, it doesn't end there, though.
The potential 'shake-up' of Stamp Duty
An idea previously floated (and bear in mind, officials are already reportedly exploring how a "proportional" property tax might work) is a shake-up of council tax and Stamp Duty Land Tax (SDLT).
Within that loose proposal is a new tax on property sales in excess of £500,000; in effect, a more bespoke form of Capital Gains Tax.
Ahead of Autumn Budget's mooted raids on property investors, what should landlords do?
I'd be looking at how my returns have dwindled over the last decade.
I'd be looking at how another 8% off my income (unearned or not) will affect my business model.
I'd also be thinking about beating a theoretical deadline of an uptick in the tax I'll pay if my property is valued in excess of half-a-million pounds.
On that basis, landlords who believe Autumn Budget 2025 will be bruising face a choice: raise the rent they charge accordingly, or get out now before the taxman cometh.
Not two but three…
There are two—no, three—things that could transpire from this mass of conjecturing. And it is conjecture. Until November 26th, we're really only prophesying, based on rumours.
The first is the thought of the excision of Stamp Duty.
If, as was the case with CGT at last year's budget, Stamp Duty is erased on the day of the announcement, people in property chains will think twice.
Someone, somewhere along the line, will want to hang back for the potential saving of thousands.
The second is the reverse. If enough landlords get twitchy, they won't wait for this potential new property tax. Unoccupied homes, or homes with short durations left on their tenancy agreements, will be on the market before the ink's dry on the "For Sale" sign.
The third thing is — both can happen simultaneously. They're not mutually exclusive. This would render all predictions for the housing market nonsensical (as if they're not already).
What has Rachel Reeves actually said about housing?
Among these dangly carrots, Reeves spoke on September 3rd 2025 of "tearing up planning rules" to get the 1.5 million homes that Labour has promised to build underway.
If what's in the ether comes to fruition, Labour had better get the foundations down soon.
A mass abdication of the property market by private landlords could sow all manner of panic, otherwise.
But it's a big 'IF,' as, indeed, are all the housing market predictions for Autumn Budget 2025 that I've proffered above.
And finally…
Nothing is yet set in stone. And, yes, that's the whole problem, in a nutshell. Tune in on November 26th for the concrete version. Or here on November 27th, when I'll be guiding ContractorUK readers through the nitty-gritty.
